MMarketMath

GOOGL

Fast growerQuality: High (90/100)1 red flag

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) · Communication Services · Interactive Media & Services

$348.06

52w 205.28 – 408.61

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

P/E

P/FCF

FCF yield

ROE

31.8%

Shldr yield

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+12.5%

Rev 5y

+17.2%

Rev 10y

+18.3%

EPS 5y

+29.8%

EPS 10y

−5.7%

FCF 5y

+11.3%

FCF 10y

+16.0%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2013–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2013: $55.5B
2014: $66.0B
2015: $75.0B
2016: $90.3B
2017: $110.9B
2018: $136.8B
2019: $161.9B
2020: $182.5B
2021: $257.6B
2022: $282.8B
2023: $307.4B
2024: $350.0B
2025: $402.8B
$0$200.0B$400.0B
13
16
19
22
25

Net income

2013: $12.7B
2014: $14.1B
2015: $16.3B
2016: $19.5B
2017: $12.7B
2018: $30.7B
2019: $34.3B
2020: $40.3B
2021: $76.0B
2022: $60.0B
2023: $73.8B
2024: $100.1B
2025: $132.2B
$0$50.0B$100.0B
13
16
19
22
25

Free cash flow

2013: $11.3B
2014: $12.0B
2015: $16.6B
2016: $25.8B
2017: $23.9B
2018: $22.8B
2019: $31.0B
2020: $42.8B
2021: $67.0B
2022: $60.0B
2023: $69.5B
2024: $72.8B
2025: $73.3B
$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B
13
16
19
22
25

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2022: 13.2B
2023: 12.7B
2024: 12.4B
2025: 12.2B
05.0B10.0B
13
16
19
22
25

Margins

10%20%30%13151719212325
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2013: $0
2014: $0
2015: $1.8B
2016: $3.7B
2017: $4.8B
2018: $9.1B
2019: $18.4B
2020: $31.1B
2021: $50.3B
2022: $59.3B
2023: $61.5B
2024: $69.6B
2025: $55.8B
$0$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B
13
16
19
22
25

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B$40.0B13151719212325
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $74.6B
Q3'23: $76.7B
Q4'23: $86.3B
Q1'24: $80.5B
Q2'24: $84.7B
Q3'24: $88.3B
Q4'24: $96.5B
Q1'25: $90.2B
Q2'25: $96.4B
Q3'25: $102.3B
Q4'25: $113.8B
Q1'26: $109.9B
Q2'26: $119.8B
$0$50.0B$100.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $18.4B
Q3'23: $19.7B
Q4'23: $20.7B
Q1'24: $23.7B
Q2'24: $23.6B
Q3'24: $26.3B
Q4'24: $26.5B
Q1'25: $34.5B
Q2'25: $28.2B
Q3'25: $35.0B
Q4'25: $34.5B
Q1'26: $62.6B
Q2'26: $112.2B
$0$50.0B$100.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$119.8B+24.2%$112.2B+297.9%9.11$39.1B
Q1'26$109.9B+21.8%$62.6B+81.2%5.11$45.8B
Q4'25 *$113.8B+18.0%$34.5B+29.8%2.82$52.4B
Q3'25$102.3B+15.9%$35.0B+33.0%2.87$48.4B
Q2'25$96.4B+13.8%$28.2B+19.4%2.31$27.7B
Q1'25$90.2B+12.0%$34.5B+46.0%2.81$36.1B
Q4'24 *$96.5B+11.8%$26.5B+28.3%2.14$39.1B
Q3'24$88.3B+15.1%$26.3B+33.6%2.12$30.7B
Q2'24$84.7B+13.6%$23.6B+28.6%1.89$26.6B
Q1'24$80.5B+15.4%$23.7B+57.2%1.89$28.8B
Q4'23 *$86.3B+13.5%$20.7B+51.8%1.64$18.9B
Q3'23$76.7B+11.0%$19.7B+41.5%1.55$30.7B
Q2'23$74.6B+7.1%$18.4B+14.8%1.44$28.7B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+12.5%+17.2%+18.3%
Operating cash flow+21.6%+20.4%+20.0%
Free cash flow+6.9%+11.3%+16.0%
EPS (diluted)+33.3%+29.8%−5.7%
Equity+17.5%+13.3%+13.2%
LT debt+44.9%+24.9%+37.0%
Diluted shares−2.4%
Stock price+37.1%+19.4%+24.4%+24.2%

$100, 3 years ago

$258vs $176 in SPY

37.1% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$243vs $181 in SPY

19.4% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$889vs $412 in SPY

24.4% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$2,594vs $813 in SPY

24.2% vs 15.0%/yr

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

35.7%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

MC vs 10× OCF

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

0.6y

SBC / FCF

34.1%

Owner earnings

$48.3B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

Share count 5y

−2.4%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.52

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 38.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 45.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 17.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

21 of 22 checks pass · 95%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    17.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    29.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    11.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    20.4% vs 17.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    32.8% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    32.0% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    31.8% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    35.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    18.2% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $164.7B vs NI $132.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

5/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    0.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    66% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.11 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $415.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    1% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -2.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    34% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    fail
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    76% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

0/0

  • FCF yield

    · ≥ 3%

    na
  • Earnings multiple

    · P/E ≤ 25

    na
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    na

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy stock compensation

Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
2025402,836129,039132,17010.81164,71391,44773,26610,04945,70924,95330,70846,547415,26512,230
2024350,018112,390100,1188.04125,29952,53572,7647,36362,22222,78523,46610,883325,08412,447
2023307,39484,29373,7955.80101,74632,25169,495061,50422,46024,04811,870283,37912,722
2022282,83674,84259,9724.5691,49531,48560,010059,29619,36221,87915,312256,14413,159
2021257,63778,71476,0335.6191,65224,64067,01250,27415,37620,94515,440251,635
2020182,52741,22440,2692.9365,12422,28142,84331,14912,99126,46515,319222,544
2019161,85734,23134,34349.1654,52023,54830,97218,39610,79418,4983,958201,442
2018136,81927,52430,73643.7047,97125,13922,8329,0759,35316,7013,950177,628
2017110,85526,17812,66218.0037,09113,18423,90704,8467,67910,7153,943152,502
201690,27223,71619,47827.8536,03610,21225,82403,6936,70312,9183,935139,036
201574,98919,36016,34826,5729,95016,622471,7805,20316,5491,995120,331
201466,00116,49614,13620.5723,02411,01412,010004,27918,3472,992103,860
201355,51915,40312,73318.7918,6597,35811,301003,34318,89886,977

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.