GM
General Motors · Consumer Discretionary · Automobile Manufacturers
$86.98
52w 54.33 – 91.85
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$76.3B
P/E
28.6
P/FCF
4.4
FCF yield
22.8%
ROE
4.4%
Shldr yield
8.6%
div 0.9% + bb 7.8%
What today's price assumes
At $76.3B, the market is pricing in -14.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 13.5% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $305 · $612 · $763 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 3.3× across 15 years, GM would trade near $101/share (25th–75th percentile: $93–$110); it trades at 2.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+5.3%
Rev 5y
+9.1%
Rev 10y
+2.2%
EPS 5y
−5.5%
EPS 10y
−5.7%
FCF 5y
+9.1%
FCF 10y
+13.5%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2010–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $43.8B | +2.1% | $1.3B | −31.1% | 1.41 | $6.4B |
| Q1'26 | $39.3B | −1.3% | $2.6B | −5.6% | 2.82 | $3.0B |
| Q4'25 * | $41.0B | −6.0% | −$3.3B | — | -3.34 | $6.8B |
| Q3'25 | $44.3B | −1.1% | $1.3B | −56.6% | 1.35 | $7.1B |
| Q2'25 | $42.9B | −2.7% | $1.9B | −35.4% | 1.91 | $6.9B |
| Q1'25 | $39.9B | +1.7% | $2.8B | −6.6% | 3.35 | $6.1B |
| Q4'24 * | $43.6B | +11.1% | −$3.0B | −240.9% | -1.42 | $4.1B |
| Q3'24 | $44.7B | +10.5% | $3.1B | −0.3% | 2.68 | $6.9B |
| Q2'24 | $44.1B | +6.8% | $2.9B | +14.3% | 2.55 | $6.0B |
| Q1'24 | $39.2B | +7.0% | $3.0B | +24.4% | 2.56 | $3.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $39.3B | −1.4% | $2.1B | +5.2% | 1.60 | $3.7B |
| Q3'23 | $40.5B | +4.6% | $3.1B | −7.3% | 2.20 | $6.6B |
| Q2'23 | $41.3B | +26.5% | $2.6B | +51.7% | 1.83 | $7.6B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.3% | +9.1% | +2.2% | +1.4% |
| Operating cash flow | +18.8% | +10.0% | +8.6% | +9.6% |
| Free cash flow | +37.2% | +9.1% | +13.5% | +13.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | −18.9% | −5.5% | −5.7% | — |
| Equity | −3.4% | +6.3% | +4.4% | +3.6% |
| LT debt | +4.2% | +3.6% | +7.5% | — |
| Diluted shares | −12.5% | −7.6% | −5.1% | — |
| Stock price | +38.7% | +13.1% | +12.7% | +11.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$267vs $176 in SPY
38.7% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$185vs $181 in SPY
13.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$332vs $412 in SPY
12.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$488vs $813 in SPY
11.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$0.31
$11.2B created / $36.3B retained
Last 10 years
$0.80
$42.4B created / $53.2B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
13.9%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
14.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.29
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
7.5y
SBC / FCF
1.9%
Owner earnings
$17.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
22.3%
Share count 5y
−3.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
—
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 37.0% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 27.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 25 checks pass · 64%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
9.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-5.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
9.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
10.0% vs 9.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/6
- fail
Net margin
1.6% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
1.7% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
4.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
13.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
10.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $26.9B vs NI $2.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
7.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
16% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
2.15 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$61.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-3.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
38% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
22.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
28.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-14.2% vs 13.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
8.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 167,971 | — | 2,909 | 2,697 | 3.27 | 26,867 | 9,303 | 17,564 | 657 | 6,012 | 334 | 20,945 | 131,574 | 61,119 | 973 |
| 2024 | 171,606 | — | 12,784 | 6,008 | 6.37 | 20,129 | 10,830 | 9,299 | 653 | 7,064 | 332 | 19,872 | 131,758 | 63,072 | 1,129 |
| 2023 | 157,658 | — | 9,298 | 10,127 | 7.32 | 20,930 | 10,970 | 9,960 | 597 | 11,115 | 340 | 18,853 | 123,494 | 64,286 | 1,369 |
| 2022 | 143,975 | — | 10,315 | 9,934 | 6.13 | 16,043 | 9,238 | 6,805 | 397 | 2,500 | 419 | 19,153 | 116,217 | 67,792 | 1,454 |
| 2021 | 113,590 | — | 9,324 | 10,019 | 6.70 | 15,188 | 7,509 | 7,679 | 186 | 0 | 391 | 20,067 | 109,867 | 59,744 | 1,468 |
| 2020 | 108,673 | — | 6,634 | 6,427 | 4.33 | 16,670 | 5,300 | 11,370 | 669 | 90 | 351 | 19,992 | 110,024 | 45,030 | 1,442 |
| 2019 | 122,697 | — | 5,481 | 6,732 | 4.57 | 15,021 | 7,592 | 7,429 | 2,350 | 0 | 456 | 19,069 | 103,951 | 41,792 | 1,439 |
| 2018 | 133,045 | — | 4,445 | 8,014 | 5.53 | 15,256 | 8,761 | 6,495 | 2,242 | 190 | 316 | 20,844 | 106,148 | 38,860 | 1,431 |
| 2017 | 145,588 | — | 8,661 | -3,864 | -2.60 | 17,328 | 8,453 | 8,875 | 2,233 | 4,492 | 585 | 15,512 | 95,290 | 35,001 | 1,492 |
| 2016 | 149,184 | — | 8,686 | 9,427 | 6.00 | 16,607 | 8,384 | 8,223 | 2,368 | 2,500 | 627 | 12,574 | 85,621 | 43,836 | 1,570 |
| 2015 | 135,725 | — | 5,538 | 9,687 | 5.91 | 11,769 | 6,813 | 4,956 | 2,242 | 3,520 | 422 | 15,238 | 63,838 | 39,871 | 1,640 |
| 2014 | 155,929 | — | 1,530 | 3,949 | 1.65 | 10,061 | 7,091 | 2,970 | 1,928 | 3,277 | 245 | 18,954 | 47,540 | 35,457 | 1,687 |
| 2013 | 155,427 | — | 5,131 | 5,346 | 2.38 | 12,630 | 7,565 | 5,065 | 0 | — | 311 | 20,021 | — | 42,607 | 1,676 |
| 2012 | 152,256 | — | -30,363 | 6,188 | 2.92 | 10,605 | 8,068 | 2,537 | 0 | — | 302 | 18,422 | — | 36,244 | 1,675 |
| 2011 | 150,276 | — | 5,656 | 9,190 | 4.58 | 8,166 | 6,249 | 1,917 | 916 | — | 233 | 16,071 | — | 38,120 | 1,668 |
| 2010 | 135,592 | — | 5,108 | 6,172 | — | 6,780 | 4,202 | 2,578 | 1,572 | — | 235 | 21,256 | — | 36,180 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.