MMarketMath

GLW

StalwartQuality: Medium (69/100)1 red flag

Corning Inc. · Information Technology · Electronic Components

$145.55

52w 65.75 – 271.78

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$125.3B

P/E

86.2

P/FCF

97.4

FCF yield

1.0%

ROE

13.5%

Shldr yield

0.8%

div 0.7% + bb 0.1%

What today's price assumes

At $125.3B, the market is pricing in 29.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -6.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $12 · $12 · $15 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 10.7× across 10 years, GLW would trade near $34/share (25th–75th percentile: $30–$40); it trades at 46.5× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+3.3%

Rev 5y

+6.7%

Rev 10y

+5.8%

EPS 5y

+27.6%

EPS 10y

−6.1%

FCF 5y

+12.0%

FCF 10y

−6.3%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2016: $9.4B
2017: $10.1B
2018: $11.3B
2019: $11.5B
2020: $11.3B
2021: $14.1B
2022: $14.2B
2023: $12.6B
2024: $13.1B
2025: $15.6B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Net income

2016: $3.7B
2017: −$497.0M
2018: $1.1B
2019: $960.0M
2020: $512.0M
2021: $1.9B
2022: $1.3B
2023: $581.0M
2024: $506.0M
2025: $1.6B
$0$2.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Free cash flow

2016: $2.5B
2017: $2.0B
2018: $677.0M
2019: $53.0M
2020: $803.0M
2021: $1.8B
2022: $1.0B
2023: $615.0M
2024: $974.0M
2025: $1.4B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2016: 1.1B
2017: 895.0M
2018: 941.0M
2019: 899.0M
2020: 772.0M
2021: 844.0M
2022: 857.0M
2023: 859.0M
2024: 869.0M
2025: 871.0M
0500.0M1.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Margins

0%20%40%1618202224
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2016: $4.2B
2017: $3.0B
2018: $2.8B
2019: $1.6B
2020: $786.0M
2021: $1.1B
2022: $1.1B
2023: $968.0M
2024: $1.1B
2025: $1.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
16
18
20
22
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B$8.0B1618202224
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $3.2B
Q2'23: $3.2B
Q3'23: $3.2B
Q4'23: $3.0B
Q1'24: $3.0B
Q2'24: $3.3B
Q3'24: $3.4B
Q4'24: $3.5B
Q1'25: $3.5B
Q2'25: $3.9B
Q3'25: $4.1B
Q4'25: $4.2B
Q1'26: $4.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $176.0M
Q2'23: $281.0M
Q3'23: $164.0M
Q4'23: −$40.0M
Q1'24: $209.0M
Q2'24: $104.0M
Q3'24: −$117.0M
Q4'24: $310.0M
Q1'25: $157.0M
Q2'25: $469.0M
Q3'25: $430.0M
Q4'25: $540.0M
Q1'26: $371.0M
$0$200.0M$400.0M
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$4.1B+20.0%$371.0M+136.3%0.43$362.0M
Q4'25 *$4.2B+20.4%$540.0M+74.2%0.61$1.1B
Q3'25$4.1B+20.9%$430.0M—0.50$784.0M
Q2'25$3.9B+18.8%$469.0M+351.0%0.54$708.0M
Q1'25$3.5B+16.0%$157.0M−24.9%0.18$151.0M
Q4'24 *$3.5B+16.9%$310.0M—0.36$623.0M
Q3'24$3.4B+6.9%−$117.0M−171.3%-0.14$699.0M
Q2'24$3.3B+0.2%$104.0M−63.0%0.12$521.0M
Q1'24$3.0B−6.4%$209.0M+18.8%0.24$96.0M
Q4'23 *$3.0B−12.1%−$40.0M—-0.04$713.0M
Q3'23$3.2B−9.0%$164.0M−21.2%0.19$722.0M
Q2'23$3.2B−10.3%$281.0M−50.1%0.33$619.0M
Q1'23$3.2B−13.6%$176.0M−69.7%0.20−$49.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+3.3%+6.7%——
Operating cash flow+1.0%+4.3%——
Free cash flow+11.8%+12.0%——
EPS (diluted)+5.9%+27.6%——
Equity−0.6%−2.3%——
LT debt+4.5%−0.5%——
Diluted shares+0.5%+2.4%——
Stock price+67.7%+32.7%+23.5%+19.3%

$100, 3 years ago

$471vs $176 in SPY

67.7% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$412vs $181 in SPY

32.7% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$823vs $412 in SPY

23.5% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,403vs $813 in SPY

19.3% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$52.17

$65.6B created / $1.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

13.9%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

1.9%

MC vs 10× OCF

5.11

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

5.4y

SBC / FCF

20.2%

Owner earnings

$1.1B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

0.8%

Share count 5y

−3.0%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

94.9%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$-0.21

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

18 of 27 checks pass · 67%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    6.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    27.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    12.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    4.3% vs 6.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    10.2% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    14.6% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    36.0% vs 31.8% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass

  • Return on equity

    13.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    13.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    9.0% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $2.7B vs NI $1.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    5.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    20% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.65 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $11.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail

  • Interest burden

    15% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -3.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    20% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    fail

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    80% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

0/4

  • FCF yield

    1.0% · ≥ 3%

    fail

  • Earnings multiple

    86.2 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    29.5% vs -6.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    0.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy debt load

Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202515,6295,6212,2791,5961.832,6951,2821,4139711632861,5267,63011,807871
202413,1184,2761,1355060.581,9399659749711652731,7686,88510,686869
202312,5883,9318905810.682,0051,390615968—2181,7797,20611,551859
202214,1894,5061,4381,3161.542,6151,6041,0119262211751,6716,68712,008857
202114,0825,0632,1121,9061.283,4121,6371,7758122741902,1486,98912,333844
202011,3033,5315095120.542,1801,3778036811052072,6727,81613,257772
201911,5034,0351,3069601.072,0311,97853625940562,4347,72912,907899
201811,2904,4611,5751,0661.132,9192,2426775902,227512,3555,99413,792941
201710,1164,0201,608-497-0.662,004—2,0045562,452464,3174,74915,698895
20169,3903,7631,4243,6953.232,537—2,537—4,227425,2913,64617,8931,144

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗