MMarketMath

GILD

Slow growerQuality: High (79/100)

Gilead Sciences · Health Care · Biotechnology

$146.74

52w 108.46 – 157.29

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$182.0B

P/E

21.5

P/FCF

19.4

FCF yield

5.2%

ROE

37.5%

Shldr yield

3.2%

div 2.2% + bb 1.1%

What today's price assumes

At $182.0B, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -7.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $52 · $52 · $64 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 9.2× across 19 years, GILD would trade near $75/share (25th–75th percentile: $57–$100); it trades at 18.2× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+2.6%

Rev 5y

+3.6%

Rev 10y

−1.0%

EPS 5y

+132.4%

EPS 10y

−5.5%

FCF 5y

+4.7%

FCF 10y

−7.4%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $4.2B
2008: $5.3B
2009: $7.0B
2010: $7.9B
2011: $8.4B
2012: $9.7B
2013: $11.2B
2014: $24.9B
2015: $32.6B
2016: $30.4B
2017: $26.1B
2018: $22.1B
2019: $22.4B
2020: $24.7B
2021: $27.3B
2022: $27.3B
2023: $27.1B
2024: $28.8B
2025: $29.4B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $1.6B
2008: $2.0B
2009: $2.6B
2010: $2.9B
2011: $2.8B
2012: $2.6B
2013: $3.1B
2014: $12.1B
2015: $18.1B
2016: $13.5B
2017: $4.6B
2018: $5.5B
2019: $5.4B
2020: $123.0M
2021: $6.2B
2022: $4.6B
2023: $5.7B
2024: $480.0M
2025: $8.5B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $1.6B
2008: $2.0B
2009: $2.8B
2010: $2.8B
2011: $3.5B
2012: $2.8B
2013: $3.0B
2014: $12.3B
2015: $20.5B
2016: $16.3B
2017: $11.3B
2018: $7.5B
2019: $8.3B
2020: $7.5B
2021: $10.8B
2022: $8.3B
2023: $7.4B
2024: $10.3B
2025: $9.5B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 1.8B
2008: 1.8B
2009: 1.7B
2010: 1.7B
2011: 1.6B
2012: 1.6B
2013: 1.7B
2014: 1.6B
2015: 1.5B
2016: 1.4B
2017: 1.3B
2018: 1.3B
2019: 1.3B
2020: 1.3B
2021: 1.3B
2022: 1.3B
2023: 1.3B
2024: 1.3B
2025: 1.3B
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

0%20%40%60%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $487.5M
2008: $2.0B
2009: $998.5M
2010: $4.0B
2011: $2.4B
2012: $667.0M
2013: $582.0M
2014: $5.3B
2015: $11.9B
2016: $13.5B
2017: $3.7B
2018: $5.9B
2019: $5.0B
2020: $5.0B
2021: $4.2B
2022: $5.1B
2023: $4.8B
2024: $5.1B
2025: $5.9B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $6.6B
Q3'23: $7.1B
Q4'23: $7.1B
Q1'24: $6.7B
Q2'24: $7.0B
Q3'24: $7.5B
Q4'24: $7.6B
Q1'25: $6.7B
Q2'25: $7.1B
Q3'25: $7.8B
Q4'25: $7.9B
Q1'26: $7.0B
Q2'26: $7.8B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.0B
Q3'23: $2.2B
Q4'23: $1.4B
Q1'24: −$4.2B
Q2'24: $1.6B
Q3'24: $1.3B
Q4'24: $1.8B
Q1'25: $1.3B
Q2'25: $2.0B
Q3'25: $3.1B
Q4'25: $2.2B
Q1'26: $2.0B
Q2'26: −$10.5B
−$10.0B−$5.0B$0
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$7.8B+10.2%−$10.5B−635.5%-8.45$3.6B
Q1'26$7.0B+4.4%$2.0B+53.7%1.61$2.5B
Q4'25 *$7.9B+4.7%$2.2B+22.4%1.75$3.3B
Q3'25$7.8B+3.0%$3.1B+143.6%2.43$4.1B
Q2'25$7.1B+1.8%$2.0B+21.4%1.56$827.0M
Q1'25$6.7B−0.3%$1.3B1.04$1.8B
Q4'24 *$7.6B+6.4%$1.8B+24.7%1.43$3.0B
Q3'24$7.5B+7.0%$1.3B−42.5%1.00$4.3B
Q2'24$7.0B+5.4%$1.6B+54.4%1.29$1.3B
Q1'24$6.7B+5.3%−$4.2B−512.9%-3.34$2.2B
Q4'23 *$7.1B−3.7%$1.4B−12.8%1.14$2.2B
Q3'23$7.1B+0.1%$2.2B+21.9%1.73$1.8B
Q2'23$6.6B+5.4%$1.0B−8.7%0.83$2.3B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+2.6%+3.6%−1.0%+9.1%
Operating cash flow+3.4%+4.2%−7.2%+8.8%
Free cash flow+4.3%+4.7%−7.4%+8.5%
EPS (diluted)+23.0%+132.4%−5.5%+9.8%
Equity+2.2%+4.5%+2.0%+9.4%
LT debt−1.2%−5.0%+0.5%
Diluted shares−0.2%−0.1%−1.9%−2.2%
Stock price+28.4%+19.3%+10.3%+17.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$212vs $176 in SPY

28.4% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$242vs $181 in SPY

19.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$267vs $412 in SPY

10.3% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,072vs $813 in SPY

17.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$16.87

$108.4B created / $6.4B retained

Last 10 years

$4.27

$88.3B created / $20.7B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

22.3%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

5.1%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.83

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

2.3y

SBC / FCF

9.5%

Owner earnings

$8.6B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

4.7%

Share count 5y

−2.0%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

19.0%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.13

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

21 of 26 checks pass · 81%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/7

  • Revenue growth

    3.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • EPS growth

    132.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    4.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Revenue rises consistently

    5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    4.2% vs 3.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    28.9% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    34.0% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    37.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    22.3% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    32.1% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $10.0B vs NI $8.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    2.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    34% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    0.97 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $22.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    10% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -2.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    9% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    63% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

3/4

  • FCF yield

    5.2% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    21.5 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    7.3% vs -7.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    3.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202529,44310,0228,5106.7810,0195639,4564,0031,9228947,56422,12922,7031,255
202428,7541,6624800.3810,82852310,3053,9181,1508359,99124,89619,3301,255
202327,1167,6055,6654.508,0065857,4213,8091,0007666,08523,18922,8331,258
202227,2817,3304,5923.649,0727288,3443,7091,3966375,41222,95721,2401,262
202127,3059,9186,2254.9311,38457910,8053,6055466355,33825,17921,0691,262
202024,6894,0711230.108,1686507,5183,4491,5836435,99728,64518,2021,263
201922,4494,2875,3864.229,1448258,3193,2221,74963611,63122,09422,5251,277
201822,1278,2005,4554.178,4009247,4762,9712,90084517,94024,57421,3871,308
201726,10714,1244,6283.5111,89859011,3082,7319546387,58830,79520,4421,319
201630,39017,63313,5019.9417,04774816,2992,45511,0013808,22926,34618,8871,358
201532,63922,19318,10811.9121,25074720,5031,87410,00238212,85121,07318,5341,521
201424,89015,26512,1017.3512,81855712,26105,34936010,02711,92115,4261,647
201311,2024,5243,0751.813,1051342,97105822522,1133,93911,3701,695
20129,7034,0102,5921.643,1953972,7986672091,8047,0559,3031,583
20118,3853,7902,8041.773,6391323,5072,3831929,8847,6066,7391,580
20107,9493,9622,9011.662,834622,7724,0232009085,8641,747
20097,0113,5292,6361.513,0802302,8509981811,2736,3671,747
20085,3362,6791,9791.102,1431152,0281,9701531,4594,2731,793
20074,2302,1651,5850.881,669791,5904881859683,7531,803

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.