MMarketMath

GEV

StalwartQuality: Medium (60/100)

GE Vernova · Industrials · Heavy Electrical Equipment

$942.10

52w 530.16 – 1,195.94

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$250.9B

P/E

53.8

P/FCF

70.9

FCF yield

1.4%

ROE

43.7%

Shldr yield

1.4%

div 0.1% + bb 1.3%

What today's price assumes

At $250.9B, the market is pricing in 25.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).

Simple DCF per-share range: $212 · $285 · $355 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+8.7%

Rev 5y

+8.7%

Rev 10y

+8.7%

EPS 5y

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2022–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2022: $29.7B
2023: $33.2B
2024: $34.9B
2025: $38.1B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
22
23
24
25

Net income

2022: −$2.7B
2023: −$438.0M
2024: $1.6B
2025: $4.9B
−$2.0B$0$2.0B$4.0B
22
23
24
25

Free cash flow

2022: −$627.0M
2023: $442.0M
2024: $1.7B
2025: $3.7B
$0$2.0B
22
23
24
25

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2022: 274.0M
2023: 274.0M
2024: 278.0M
2025: 276.0M
0100.0M200.0M
22
23
24
25

Margins

-10%0%10%20%22232425
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2023: $0
2024: $43.0M
2025: $3.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
22
23
24
25

Cash vs long-term debt

$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B22232425
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $8.1B
Q3'23: $8.3B
Q4'23: $10.0B
Q1'24: $7.3B
Q2'24: $8.2B
Q3'24: $8.9B
Q4'24: $10.6B
Q1'25: $8.0B
Q2'25: $9.1B
Q3'25: $10.0B
Q4'25: $11.0B
Q1'26: $9.3B
Q2'26: $11.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: −$150.0M
Q3'23: −$170.0M
Q4'23: $197.0M
Q1'24: −$130.0M
Q2'24: $1.3B
Q3'24: −$96.0M
Q4'24: $484.0M
Q1'25: $254.0M
Q2'25: $514.0M
Q3'25: $452.0M
Q4'25: $3.7B
Q1'26: $4.7B
Q2'26: $668.0M
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$11.1B+21.9%$668.0M+30.0%2.47$5.5B
Q1'26$9.3B+16.3%$4.7B+1768.1%17.44$5.2B
Q4'25 *$11.0B+3.8%$3.7B+657.0%13.28$2.5B
Q3'25$10.0B+11.8%$452.0M1.64$980.0M
Q2'25$9.1B+11.1%$514.0M−60.3%1.86$367.0M
Q1'25$8.0B+10.6%$254.0M0.91$1.2B
Q4'24 *$10.6B+5.1%$484.0M+145.7%1.75$921.0M
Q3'24$8.9B+8.0%−$96.0M-0.35$1.1B
Q2'24$8.2B+1.0%$1.3B4.65$979.0M
Q1'24$7.3B+6.4%−$130.0M-0.47−$444.0M
Q4'23 *$10.0B$197.0M$1.9B
Q3'23$8.3B−$170.0M-0.62$233.0M
Q2'23$8.1B−$150.0M-0.55−$288.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+8.7%
Operating cash flow
Free cash flow
EPS (diluted)
Equity−1.2%
LT debt
Diluted shares+0.2%
Stock price

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

44.6%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

2.0%

MC vs 10× OCF

5.27

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

6.9%

Owner earnings

$3.5B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

1.3%

Share count 5y

+0.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

14 of 19 checks pass · 74%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

2/2

  • Revenue growth

    8.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    na
  • FCF consistently positive

    · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    na
  • Profitable every year

    · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    na
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    105.1% vs 8.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/7

  • Net margin

    12.8% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    3.6% · ≥ 10%

    fail
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    19.8% vs 11.7% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    43.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    44.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    9.7% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.0B vs NI $4.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $11.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/3

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    97% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    na

Valuation Discipline

0/3

  • FCF yield

    1.4% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    53.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    1.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202538,0687,5351,3884,88417.694,9871,2773,7102753,3162578,84811,178276
202434,9356,0854711,5525.582,5838831,7000431558,2059,546278
202333,2394,818-923-438-1.601,186744442001,5517,416274
202229,6543,458-2,881-2,736-10.00-114513-6272,06711,607274

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.