MMarketMath

GE

Slow growerQuality: High (74/100)1 red flag

GE Aerospace · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

$341.84

52w 266.56 – 388.84

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$354.7B

P/E

41.5

P/FCF

49.8

FCF yield

2.0%

ROE

46.6%

Shldr yield

2.1%

div 0.0% + bb 2.1%

What today's price assumes

At $354.7B, the market is pricing in 20.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -5.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $55 · $55 · $68 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 11.7× across 15 years, GE would trade near $97/share (25th–75th percentile: $49–$165); it trades at 41.5× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+16.3%

Rev 5y

−9.6%

Rev 10y

−9.0%

EPS 5y

+11.9%

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

+29.6%

FCF 10y

−5.3%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $170.0B
2008: $179.8B
2009: $154.4B
2010: $148.9B
2011: $110.1B
2012: $112.6B
2013: $113.2B
2014: $117.2B
2015: $117.4B
2016: $110.2B
2017: $111.0B
2018: $113.5B
2019: $90.2B
2020: $75.8B
2021: $56.5B
2022: $29.1B
2023: $35.3B
2024: $38.7B
2025: $45.9B
$0$50.0B$100.0B$150.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $22.2B
2008: $17.4B
2009: $11.0B
2010: $11.6B
2011: $14.2B
2012: $13.6B
2013: $13.1B
2014: $15.2B
2015: −$6.1B
2016: $7.5B
2017: −$8.5B
2018: −$22.4B
2019: −$5.0B
2020: $5.7B
2021: −$6.3B
2022: $336.0M
2023: $9.5B
2024: $6.6B
2025: $8.7B
−$20.0B$0$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $25.5B
2008: $32.6B
2009: $15.8B
2010: $26.3B
2011: $20.7B
2012: $16.2B
2013: $21.8B
2014: $20.6B
2015: $12.6B
2016: −$6.0B
2017: −$88.0M
2018: −$1.6B
2019: $6.5B
2020: $2.0B
2021: $2.2B
2022: $4.5B
2023: $4.3B
2024: $3.7B
2025: $7.3B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2011: 1.3B
2012: 1.3B
2013: 1.3B
2014: 1.3B
2015: 1.3B
2016: 1.1B
2017: 1.1B
2018: 1.1B
2019: 1.1B
2020: 1.1B
2021: 1.1B
2022: 1.1B
2023: 1.1B
2024: 1.1B
2025: 1.1B
0500.0M1.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-20%0%20%07101316192225
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2012: $5.0B
2013: $10.2B
2014: $2.2B
2015: $2.7B
2016: $42.7B
2017: $4.0B
2021: $107.0M
2022: $1.0B
2023: $1.2B
2024: $5.8B
2025: $7.6B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$100.0B$200.0B$300.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $7.9B
Q3'23: $8.5B
Q4'23: $8.5B
Q1'24: $8.1B
Q2'24: $8.2B
Q3'24: $8.9B
Q4'24: $9.9B
Q1'25: $9.9B
Q2'25: $11.0B
Q3'25: $12.2B
Q4'25: $12.7B
Q1'26: $12.4B
Q2'26: $13.3B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $33.0M
Q3'23: $352.0M
Q4'23: $1.6B
Q1'24: $1.5B
Q2'24: $1.3B
Q3'24: $1.9B
Q4'24: $1.9B
Q1'25: $2.0B
Q2'25: $2.0B
Q3'25: $2.2B
Q4'25: $2.5B
Q1'26: $1.9B
Q2'26: $2.4B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$13.3B+21.1%$2.4B+16.9%2.26$3.2B
Q1'26$12.4B+24.7%$1.9B−3.7%1.81$1.8B
Q4'25 *$12.7B+28.7%$2.5B+33.8%2.40$2.3B
Q3'25$12.2B+36.2%$2.2B+16.5%2.02$2.5B
Q2'25$11.0B+34.1%$2.0B+60.2%1.89$2.2B
Q1'25$9.9B+23.0%$2.0B+28.5%1.83$1.5B
Q4'24$9.9B+15.6%$1.9B+19.5%1.75$1.3B
Q3'24$8.9B+5.7%$1.9B+426.1%1.70$1.5B
Q2'24$8.2B+4.0%$1.3B+3736.4%1.15$911.0M
Q1'24$8.1B+14.7%$1.5B−79.5%1.40$994.0M
Q4'23$8.5B−46.7%$1.6B−27.7%1.44$3.1B
Q3'23$8.5B−38.8%$352.0M+118.6%0.24$1.8B
Q2'23$7.9B−40.8%$33.0M-0.02$485.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+16.3%−9.6%−9.0%−7.6%
Operating cash flow+13.0%+19.1%−8.1%−9.2%
Free cash flow+16.9%+29.6%−5.3%−8.2%
EPS (diluted)+446.0%+11.9%−3.4%−0.2%
Equity−17.9%−12.1%−15.3%−11.6%
LT debt+0.2%−21.8%−17.8%−16.3%
Diluted shares−1.0%−0.5%−1.6%
Stock price+56.1%+39.8%+9.8%+12.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$380vs $176 in SPY

56.1% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$533vs $181 in SPY

39.8% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$255vs $412 in SPY

9.8% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$580vs $813 in SPY

12.4% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$14.40

$269.9B created / $18.7B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

21.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

2.3%

MC vs 10× OCF

4.23

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

2.8y

SBC / FCF

4.5%

Owner earnings

$6.9B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

1.9%

Share count 5y

−1.6%

per year; negative = buybacks

Checklist

14 of 24 checks pass · 58%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/7

  • Revenue growth

    -9.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • EPS growth

    11.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    29.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    7 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    6 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    19.1% vs -9.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

4/5

  • Net margin

    19.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    46.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    21.8% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    15.8% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $8.5B vs NI $8.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

3/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    2.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    61% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    1.10 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $18.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    104% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    fail
  • Repurchases are a habit

    5 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

1/4

  • FCF yield

    2.0% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    41.5 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    20.1% vs -5.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    2.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Distributions exceed FCF

Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202545,8558,7048.148,5371,2737,2647,55132512,39220,46918,6771,068
202438,7026,5565.994,7101,0323,6785,82728613,61919,27319,3421,094
202335,3489,4828.365,1898624,3271,23319215,20420,86227,4031,099
202229,1393360.055,9171,3714,5461,04814315,81020,32033,6961,101
202156,469-6,337-6.003,4811,2502,23110730515,77030,82440,3101,098
202075,8335,7044.633,5681,5791,98935336,53070,18935,5521,095
201990,221-4,979-4.998,7342,2166,51840035,81167,24128,3161,091
2018113,543-22,355-20.874,9786,627-1,64933631,12488,94930,9811,091
2017110,968-8,484-8.216,5546,642-884,01643,299108,57556,0311,090
2016110,1717,5005.971,1607,199-6,03920,095-22,58148,129105,08070,1621,146
2015117,386-6,126-4.8619,8917,30912,582-2,70970,483144,65998,2741,257
2014117,18415,23311.9527,7097,13420,575-2,211186,596128,1591,271
2013113,24513,05710.1228,5106,75421,756-10,225221,665130,5661,292
2012112,58822,88713,64110.2831,33115,11916,212-5,005236,084123,0261,326
2011110,06220,65214,1519.8033,35912,63720,72284,501243,459116,4381,330
2010148,87517,25011,6448.4436,1249,80026,32478,943293,323118,936
2009154,39615,60511,0258.0524,4178,63615,78170,479336,172117,291
2008179,76921,85017,41013.7048,65316,01032,64348,112322,847104,665
2007169,96425,61422,20817.2943,32217,80325,51915,731115,559

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.