MMarketMath

GD

StalwartQuality: High (77/100)

General Dynamics · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

$383.77

52w 306.77 – 400.00

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$103.8B

P/E

25.3

P/FCF

26.9

FCF yield

3.7%

ROE

16.4%

Shldr yield

2.1%

div 1.5% + bb 0.6%

What today's price assumes

At $103.8B, the market is pricing in 11.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 7.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $223 · $287 · $358 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 13.0× across 18 years, GD would trade near $246/share (25th–75th percentile: $139–$278); it trades at 20.3× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+10.1%

Rev 5y

+6.7%

Rev 10y

+5.2%

EPS 5y

+7.0%

EPS 10y

+5.2%

FCF 5y

+6.5%

FCF 10y

+7.4%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $27.2B
2008: $29.3B
2009: $32.0B
2010: $32.5B
2011: $32.7B
2012: $31.0B
2013: $30.9B
2014: $30.9B
2015: $31.8B
2016: $30.6B
2017: $31.0B
2018: $36.2B
2019: $39.4B
2020: $37.9B
2021: $38.5B
2022: $39.4B
2023: $42.3B
2024: $47.7B
2025: $52.5B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $2.1B
2008: $2.5B
2009: $2.4B
2010: $2.6B
2011: $2.5B
2012: −$332.0M
2013: $2.4B
2014: $2.5B
2015: $3.0B
2016: $2.6B
2017: $2.9B
2018: $3.3B
2019: $3.5B
2020: $3.2B
2021: $3.3B
2022: $3.4B
2023: $3.3B
2024: $3.8B
2025: $4.2B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $2.5B
2008: $2.6B
2009: $2.5B
2010: $2.6B
2011: $2.8B
2012: $2.2B
2013: $2.7B
2014: $3.2B
2015: $1.9B
2016: $1.8B
2017: $3.4B
2018: $2.5B
2019: $2.0B
2020: $2.9B
2021: $3.4B
2022: $3.5B
2023: $3.8B
2024: $3.2B
2025: $4.0B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 398.7M
2009: 387.9M
2010: 385.2M
2011: 367.5M
2012: 353.3M
2013: 353.5M
2014: 341.3M
2015: 326.7M
2016: 310.4M
2017: 304.6M
2018: 299.2M
2019: 290.8M
2020: 287.9M
2021: 282.0M
2022: 278.2M
2023: 275.7M
2024: 277.5M
2025: 272.4M
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

0%5%10%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $950.0M
2008: $2.1B
2009: $786.0M
2010: $1.8B
2011: $2.1B
2012: $1.5B
2013: $1.3B
2014: $4.2B
2015: $4.1B
2016: $2.9B
2017: $2.5B
2018: $2.8B
2019: $1.4B
2020: $1.8B
2021: $3.1B
2022: $2.6B
2023: $1.9B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $2.2B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$5.0B$10.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $9.9B
Q2'23: $10.2B
Q3'23: $10.6B
Q4'23: $11.7B
Q1'24: $10.7B
Q2'24: $12.0B
Q3'24: $11.7B
Q4'24: $13.3B
Q1'25: $12.2B
Q2'25: $13.0B
Q3'25: $12.9B
Q4'25: $14.4B
Q1'26: $13.5B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $730.0M
Q2'23: $744.0M
Q3'23: $836.0M
Q4'23: $1.0B
Q1'24: $799.0M
Q2'24: $905.0M
Q3'24: $930.0M
Q4'24: $1.1B
Q1'25: $994.0M
Q2'25: $1.0B
Q3'25: $1.1B
Q4'25: $1.1B
Q1'26: $1.1B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$13.5B+10.3%$1.1B+13.2%—$2.2B
Q4'25 *$14.4B+7.8%$1.1B−0.4%—$1.6B
Q3'25$12.9B+10.6%$1.1B+13.9%—$2.1B
Q2'25$13.0B+8.9%$1.0B+12.0%—$1.6B
Q1'25$12.2B+13.9%$994.0M+24.4%—−$148.0M
Q4'24 *$13.3B+14.3%$1.1B+14.2%—$2.2B
Q3'24$11.7B+10.4%$930.0M+11.2%—$1.4B
Q2'24$12.0B+18.0%$905.0M+21.6%—$814.0M
Q1'24$10.7B+8.6%$799.0M+9.5%—−$278.0M
Q4'23 *$11.7B+7.5%$1.0B+1.3%—$1.2B
Q3'23$10.6B+6.0%$836.0M−7.3%—$1.3B
Q2'23$10.2B+10.5%$744.0M−2.9%—$731.0M
Q1'23$9.9B+5.2%$730.0M0.0%—$1.5B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+10.1%+6.7%+5.2%+3.3%
Operating cash flow+3.8%+5.8%+7.4%+3.7%
Free cash flow+4.5%+6.5%+7.4%+2.8%
EPS (diluted)+8.2%+7.0%+5.2%+5.6%
Equity+11.3%+10.3%+9.4%+4.5%
LT debt−8.8%−6.9%+9.2%+7.3%
Diluted shares−0.7%−1.1%−1.8%−2.3%
Stock price+21.6%+16.3%+12.1%+15.3%

$100, 3 years ago

$180vs $176 in SPY

21.6% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$213vs $181 in SPY

16.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$313vs $412 in SPY

12.1% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$843vs $813 in SPY

15.3% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$5.34

$57.2B created / $10.7B retained

Last 10 years

$2.88

$60.0B created / $20.8B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

15.7%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

4.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.08

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.8y

SBC / FCF

5.0%

Owner earnings

$3.8B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.5%

Share count 5y

−2.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

14.3%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.17

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 32.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 16.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 5.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

21 of 25 checks pass · 84%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    6.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    7.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    6.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    5.8% vs 6.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    8.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    10.2% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    16.4% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    15.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    7.5% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.1B vs NI $4.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    33% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.27 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $25.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    — · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -2.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    56% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.7% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    25.3 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    11.7% vs 7.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    2.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202552,550—5,3564,21015.455,1201,1613,9591,5936371962,3337,00725,622272
202447,716—4,7963,78213.634,1129163,1961,5291,5011831,6977,26022,063277
202342,272—4,2453,31512.024,7109043,8061,4284341811,9138,75421,299276
202239,407—4,2113,39012.194,5791,1143,4651,3691,2291651,2429,24318,568278
202138,469—4,1633,25711.554,2718873,3841,3151,8281261,60310,49017,641282
202037,925—4,1333,16711.003,8589672,8911,2405871282,8249,99515,661288
201939,350—4,5703,48411.982,9819871,9941,1522311339029,01013,978291
201836,193—4,3943,34511.183,1486902,4581,0751,76914096311,44412,110299
201730,973—4,2362,9129.563,8764283,4489861,5581232,9833,98011,801305
201630,561—3,7442,5728.292,1633921,7719111,996952,3342,98810,301310
201531,781—4,2953,0369.292,4995691,9308733,233982,7852,89810,440327
201430,852—3,8892,5337.423,7285213,2078223,3821284,3883,39211,829341
201330,930—3,6892,3576.673,1114362,6755917401205,3013,90814,501353
201230,992—765-332-0.942,6064362,1708936021143,2963,90811,390353
201132,677—3,8262,5266.873,2384582,7806731,4681282,6493,90713,232368
201032,466—3,9452,6246.812,9863702,6166311,1851182,6132,43013,316385
200931,981—3,6752,3946.172,8553852,4705772091172,2633,15912,423388
200829,300—3,6532,4596.173,1244902,6345331,5221051,6213,11310,053399
200727,240—3,1132,0725.082,9524742,478445505862,891—11,768—

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗