FTNT
Fortinet · Information Technology · Systems Software
$151.99
52w 73.55 – 172.09
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$111.5B
P/E
60.2
P/FCF
50.1
FCF yield
2.0%
ROE
149.8%
Shldr yield
2.1%
div 0.0% + bb 2.1%
What today's price assumes
At $111.5B, the market is pricing in 20.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 24.7% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $46 · $104 · $149 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 23.9× across 17 years, FTNT would trade near $85/share (25th–75th percentile: $71–$93); it trades at 43.0× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+15.5%
Rev 5y
+21.3%
Rev 10y
+21.0%
EPS 5y
+33.1%
EPS 10y
+72.4%
FCF 5y
+18.4%
FCF 10y
+24.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $2.0B | +25.6% | $606.3M | +37.8% | 0.82 | $1.0B |
| Q1'26 | $1.8B | +20.1% | $534.5M | +23.3% | 0.72 | $1.1B |
| Q4'25 * | $1.9B | +14.8% | $506.0M | −3.8% | 0.67 | $620.2M |
| Q3'25 | $1.7B | +14.4% | $473.9M | −12.2% | 0.62 | $655.2M |
| Q2'25 | $1.6B | +13.6% | $440.1M | +15.9% | 0.57 | $451.9M |
| Q1'25 | $1.5B | +13.8% | $433.4M | +44.8% | 0.56 | $863.3M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.7B | +17.3% | $526.2M | +69.3% | 0.68 | $477.6M |
| Q3'24 | $1.5B | +13.0% | $539.9M | +67.2% | 0.70 | $608.1M |
| Q2'24 | $1.4B | +10.9% | $379.8M | +42.6% | 0.49 | $342.0M |
| Q1'24 | $1.4B | +7.2% | $299.3M | +20.8% | 0.39 | $830.4M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.4B | +10.3% | $310.9M | −0.9% | 0.41 | $191.7M |
| Q3'23 | $1.3B | +16.1% | $322.9M | +39.4% | 0.41 | $551.2M |
| Q2'23 | $1.3B | +25.5% | $266.3M | +53.5% | 0.33 | $515.1M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +15.5% | +21.3% | +21.0% | +22.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +14.4% | +19.0% | +24.8% | +24.0% |
| Free cash flow | +15.4% | +18.4% | +24.7% | +23.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +31.7% | +33.1% | +72.4% | +28.8% |
| Equity | +12.2% | +7.7% | +5.1% | +11.8% |
| LT debt | −20.6% | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −1.7% | −1.8% | −1.0% | +0.1% |
| Stock price | +36.2% | +19.2% | +35.6% | +27.8% |
$100, 3 years ago
$252vs $176 in SPY
36.2% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$241vs $181 in SPY
19.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$2,103vs $412 in SPY
35.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$3,973vs $813 in SPY
27.8% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$6.10
$37.9B created / $6.2B retained
Last 10 years
$7.72
$57.4B created / $7.4B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
149.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.30
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.2y
SBC / FCF
12.6%
Owner earnings
$1.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.7%
Share count 5y
+1.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
23.8%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.28
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
22 of 27 checks pass · 81%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
21.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
33.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
18.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
19.0% vs 21.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
27.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
30.7% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
80.5% vs 75.4% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
149.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
149.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
32.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $2.6B vs NI $1.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
502% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.40 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$1.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
1% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
13% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
103% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.0% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
60.2 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
20.2% vs 24.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6,800 | 5,471 | 2,085 | 1,853 | 2.42 | 2,591 | 365 | 2,226 | — | 2,290 | 280 | 2,495 | 497 | 1,238 | 765 |
| 2024 | 5,956 | 4,798 | 1,803 | 1,745 | 2.26 | 2,258 | 379 | 1,879 | — | 1 | 258 | 2,876 | 994 | 1,494 | 772 |
| 2023 | 5,305 | 4,068 | 1,241 | 1,148 | 1.46 | 1,936 | 204 | 1,731 | — | 1,501 | 249 | 1,398 | 992 | -463 | 788 |
| 2022 | 4,417 | 3,333 | 970 | 857 | 1.06 | 1,731 | 281 | 1,449 | — | 1,991 | 217 | 1,683 | 990 | -282 | 805 |
| 2021 | 3,342 | 2,559 | 650 | 607 | 0.73 | 1,500 | 296 | 1,204 | — | 742 | 208 | 1,319 | 988 | 782 | 835 |
| 2020 | 2,594 | 2,024 | 532 | 489 | 0.58 | 1,084 | 126 | 958 | — | 1,080 | 192 | 1,062 | 0 | 856 | 838 |
| 2019 | 2,163 | 1,657 | 351 | 332 | 0.40 | 808 | 92 | 716 | — | 145 | 174 | 1,223 | — | 1,342 | 838 |
| 2018 | 1,805 | 1,354 | 234 | 335 | 0.40 | 639 | 53 | 586 | — | 212 | 163 | 1,112 | — | 1,026 | 834 |
| 2017 | 1,495 | 1,110 | 110 | 31 | 0.04 | 594 | 135 | 459 | — | 446 | 137 | 811 | — | 602 | 853 |
| 2016 | 1,275 | 938 | 43 | 32 | 0.04 | 346 | 67 | 279 | — | 111 | 122 | 709 | — | 838 | 845 |
| 2015 | 1,009 | 722 | 15 | 8 | 0.01 | 283 | 37 | 245 | — | 60 | 95 | 543 | — | 755 | 844 |
| 2014 | 770 | 539 | 59 | 25 | 0.03 | 197 | 32 | 164 | — | 44 | 59 | 283 | — | 676 | 811 |
| 2013 | 615 | 435 | 72 | 44 | 0.05 | 147 | 14 | 134 | — | 34 | 44 | 116 | — | 586 | 806 |
| 2012 | 534 | 386 | 100 | 67 | 0.08 | 184 | 22 | 162 | — | 0 | 31 | 123 | — | 511 | 797 |
| 2011 | 434 | 320 | 89 | 62 | 0.08 | 133 | 4 | 129 | — | 0 | 19 | 72 | — | 358 | 785 |
| 2010 | 325 | 239 | 55 | 41 | 0.05 | 103 | 4 | 100 | — | 0 | 9 | 67 | — | 232 | 749 |
| 2009 | 252 | 182 | 25 | 60 | 0.08 | 62 | 5 | 57 | — | 3 | 7 | 212 | — | 142 | 625 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.