FIX
Comfort Systems USA · Industrials · Construction & Engineering
$1,609.69
52w 670.19 – 2,073.99
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$56.7B
P/E
58.4
P/FCF
57.9
FCF yield
1.7%
ROE
41.8%
Shldr yield
0.5%
div 0.1% + bb 0.4%
What today's price assumes
At $56.7B, the market is pricing in 22.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 29.6% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $447 · $1,002 · $1,444 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 13.3× across 17 years, FIX would trade near $448/share (25th–75th percentile: $396–$482); it trades at 47.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+30.0%
Rev 5y
+26.1%
Rev 10y
+19.1%
EPS 5y
+47.8%
EPS 10y
+36.4%
FCF 5y
+31.5%
FCF 10y
+29.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $3.3B | +50.3% | $441.6M | +91.3% | 12.53 | $1.1B |
| Q1'26 | $2.9B | +56.5% | $370.4M | +118.8% | 10.51 | $388.8M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.6B | +41.7% | $330.8M | +126.8% | 9.35 | $468.5M |
| Q3'25 | $2.5B | +35.2% | $291.6M | +99.4% | 8.25 | $553.3M |
| Q2'25 | $2.2B | +20.1% | $230.8M | +72.3% | 6.53 | $252.5M |
| Q1'25 | $1.8B | +19.1% | $169.3M | +75.8% | 4.75 | −$88.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.9B | +37.6% | $145.9M | +59.3% | 4.08 | $210.5M |
| Q3'24 | $1.8B | +31.5% | $146.2M | +39.1% | 4.09 | $302.2M |
| Q2'24 | $1.8B | +39.6% | $134.0M | +92.9% | 3.74 | $189.9M |
| Q1'24 | $1.5B | +30.8% | $96.3M | +68.3% | 2.69 | $146.6M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.4B | +21.5% | $91.6M | +65.2% | 2.56 | $173.0M |
| Q3'23 | $1.4B | +23.0% | $105.1M | +70.9% | 2.93 | $214.2M |
| Q2'23 | $1.3B | +27.4% | $69.5M | +64.5% | 1.93 | $125.4M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +30.0% | +26.1% | +19.1% | +15.4% |
| Operating cash flow | +57.9% | +32.9% | +28.3% | +27.2% |
| Free cash flow | +59.7% | +31.5% | +29.6% | +28.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | +61.8% | +47.8% | +36.4% | +33.2% |
| Equity | +34.8% | +28.6% | +21.6% | +14.7% |
| LT debt | −17.5% | −10.0% | +29.5% | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.6% | −0.7% | −0.7% | −0.4% |
| Stock price | +106.5% | +84.9% | +50.6% | +42.0% |
$100, 3 years ago
$880vs $176 in SPY
106.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$2,161vs $181 in SPY
84.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$6,020vs $412 in SPY
50.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$19,177vs $813 in SPY
42.0% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$18.49
$38.4B created / $2.1B retained
Last 10 years
$15.69
$39.4B created / $2.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
45.8%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
5.03
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.1y
SBC / FCF
2.1%
Owner earnings
$1.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.7%
Share count 5y
−0.5%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
4.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.04
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 23.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 123.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 28.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
24 of 27 checks pass · 89%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
26.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
47.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
31.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
32.9% vs 26.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
11.2% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
14.4% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
24.1% vs 17.9% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
41.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
45.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
11.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $1.2B vs NI $1.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
706% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.06 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$2.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
1% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
28% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.7% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
58.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
22.2% vs 29.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.5% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9,102 | 2,196 | 1,315 | 1,023 | 28.88 | 1,186 | 155 | 1,031 | 69 | 216 | 22 | 982 | 139 | 2,449 | 35 |
| 2024 | 7,027 | 1,476 | 749 | 522 | 14.60 | 849 | 111 | 738 | 43 | 58 | 17 | 550 | 62 | 1,705 | 36 |
| 2023 | 5,207 | 991 | 418 | 323 | 9.01 | 640 | 95 | 545 | 30 | 21 | 13 | 205 | 39 | 1,278 | 36 |
| 2022 | 4,140 | 742 | 254 | 246 | 6.82 | 302 | 48 | 253 | 20 | 38 | 11 | 57 | 247 | 1,000 | 36 |
| 2021 | 3,074 | 563 | 188 | 143 | 3.93 | 180 | 22 | 158 | 17 | 27 | 11 | 59 | 385 | 806 | 36 |
| 2020 | 2,857 | 547 | 191 | 150 | 4.09 | 287 | 24 | 262 | 15 | 30 | 7 | 55 | 236 | 696 | 37 |
| 2019 | 2,615 | 502 | 164 | 114 | 3.08 | 142 | 32 | 110 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 51 | 205 | 585 | 37 |
| 2018 | 2,183 | 446 | 150 | 113 | 3.00 | 147 | 27 | 120 | 12 | 29 | 7 | 46 | 74 | 498 | 38 |
| 2017 | 1,788 | 366 | 99 | 55 | 1.47 | 114 | 35 | 79 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 37 | 60 | 418 | 38 |
| 2016 | 1,634 | 344 | 102 | 65 | 1.72 | 91 | 23 | 68 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 377 | 38 |
| 2015 | 1,581 | 318 | 90 | 49 | 1.30 | 98 | 21 | 77 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 56 | 11 | 347 | 38 |
| 2014 | 1,411 | 250 | 42 | 23 | 0.61 | 43 | 19 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 32 | 40 | 306 | 38 |
| 2013 | 1,357 | 240 | 46 | 27 | 0.73 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 2 | 296 | 38 |
| 2012 | 1,331 | 208 | 22 | 12 | 0.36 | 31 | 12 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 2 | 270 | 37 |
| 2011 | 1,217 | 182 | -43 | -36 | -0.99 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 51 | 2 | 265 | 37 |
| 2010 | 1,064 | 190 | 31 | 15 | 0.39 | 32 | 7 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 86 | — | 313 | 38 |
| 2009 | 1,129 | 226 | 57 | 34 | 0.89 | 54 | 9 | 45 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 128 | — | 306 | 38 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.