MMarketMath

FDX

Slow growerQuality: Medium (53/100)

FedEx · Industrials · Air Freight & Logistics

$334.05

52w 178.33 – 345.37

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$79.0B

P/E

17.5

P/FCF

15.2

FCF yield

6.6%

ROE

14.0%

Shldr yield

2.8%

div 1.8% + bb 1.0%

What today's price assumes

At $79.0B, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 19.1% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $330 · $739 · $1,065 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 5.5× across 18 years, FDX would trade near $206/share (25th–75th percentile: $179–$257); it trades at 8.9× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+1.7%

Rev 5y

+2.4%

Rev 10y

+6.5%

EPS 5y

−0.9%

EPS 10y

+11.0%

FCF 5y

+3.8%

FCF 10y

+19.1%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $38.0B
2009: $35.5B
2010: $34.7B
2011: $39.3B
2012: $42.7B
2013: $44.3B
2014: $45.6B
2015: $47.5B
2016: $50.4B
2017: $60.3B
2018: $65.5B
2019: $69.7B
2020: $69.2B
2021: $84.0B
2022: $93.5B
2023: $90.2B
2024: $87.7B
2025: $87.9B
2026: $94.7B
$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Net income

2008: $1.1B
2009: $98.0M
2010: $1.2B
2011: $1.5B
2012: $2.0B
2013: $2.7B
2014: $2.3B
2015: $1.1B
2016: $1.8B
2017: $3.0B
2018: $4.6B
2019: $540.0M
2020: $1.3B
2021: $5.2B
2022: $3.8B
2023: $4.0B
2024: $4.3B
2025: $4.1B
2026: $4.4B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Free cash flow

2008: $518.0M
2009: $294.0M
2010: $322.0M
2011: $607.0M
2012: $828.0M
2013: $1.3B
2014: $731.0M
2015: $1.0B
2016: $890.0M
2017: −$186.0M
2018: −$989.0M
2019: $123.0M
2020: −$771.0M
2021: $4.3B
2022: $3.1B
2023: $2.7B
2024: $3.1B
2025: $3.0B
2026: $5.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2009: 312.0M
2010: 314.0M
2011: 317.0M
2012: 317.0M
2013: 317.0M
2014: 310.0M
2015: 287.0M
2016: 279.0M
2017: 270.0M
2018: 272.0M
2019: 265.0M
2020: 262.0M
2021: 268.0M
2022: 266.0M
2023: 256.0M
2024: 251.0M
2025: 243.0M
2026: 239.0M
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
08
12
16
20
24

Margins

0%3%5%8%08111417202326
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2008: $124.0M
2009: $137.0M
2010: $138.0M
2011: $151.0M
2012: $361.0M
2013: $423.0M
2014: $5.0B
2015: $1.5B
2016: $3.0B
2017: $935.0M
2018: $1.6B
2019: $2.2B
2020: $682.0M
2021: $686.0M
2022: $3.0B
2023: $2.7B
2024: $3.8B
2025: $4.4B
2026: $2.2B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$10.0B$20.0B08111417202326
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q4'23: $21.9B
Q1'24: $21.7B
Q2'24: $22.2B
Q3'24: $21.7B
Q4'24: $22.1B
Q1'25: $21.6B
Q2'25: $22.0B
Q3'25: $22.2B
Q4'25: $22.2B
Q1'26: $22.2B
Q2'26: $23.5B
Q3'26: $24.0B
Q4'26: $25.0B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
23
24
25
26
26

Net income by quarter

Q4'23: $1.5B
Q1'24: $1.1B
Q2'24: $900.0M
Q3'24: $879.0M
Q4'24: $1.5B
Q1'25: $794.0M
Q2'25: $741.0M
Q3'25: $909.0M
Q4'25: $1.6B
Q1'26: $824.0M
Q2'26: $956.0M
Q3'26: $1.1B
Q4'26: $1.6B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
23
24
25
26
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q4'26 *$25.0B+12.5%$1.6B−3.1%6.64$3.3B
Q3'26$24.0B+8.3%$1.1B+16.2%4.41$2.0B
Q2'26$23.5B+6.8%$956.0M+29.0%4.04$2.0B
Q1'26$22.2B+3.1%$824.0M+3.8%3.46$1.7B
Q4'25 *$22.2B+0.5%$1.6B+11.8%6.81$2.5B
Q3'25$22.2B+1.9%$909.0M+3.4%3.76$2.0B
Q2'25$22.0B−0.9%$741.0M−17.7%3.03$1.3B
Q1'25$21.6B−0.5%$794.0M−26.3%3.21$1.2B
Q4'24 *$22.1B+0.8%$1.5B−4.2%5.92$2.7B
Q3'24$21.7B−1.9%$879.0M+14.0%3.51$1.6B
Q2'24$22.2B−2.8%$900.0M+14.2%3.55$1.8B
Q1'24$21.7B−6.7%$1.1B+23.2%4.23$2.2B
Q4'23 *$21.9B−10.1%$1.5B+175.6%6.03$3.4B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+1.7%+2.4%+6.5%+6.0%
Operating cash flow+0.3%−2.5%+4.6%+5.4%
Free cash flow+24.1%+3.8%+19.1%+15.3%
EPS (diluted)+6.2%−0.9%+11.0%+9.8%
Equity+6.7%+5.5%+8.7%+5.0%
LT debt+5.6%+3.7%+5.5%+19.9%
Diluted shares−2.3%−2.3%−1.5%−1.9%
Stock price+19.1%+11.5%+11.4%+13.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$169vs $176 in SPY

19.1% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$172vs $181 in SPY

11.5% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$294vs $412 in SPY

11.4% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$636vs $813 in SPY

13.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$1.12

$16.5B created / $14.7B retained

Last 10 years

$1.74

$45.7B created / $26.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

16.2%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

10.2%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.87

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

4.6y

SBC / FCF

3.5%

Owner earnings

$4.9B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

6.4%

Share count 5y

−1.6%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

—

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.43

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 11.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -23.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -2.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

16 of 26 checks pass · 62%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

1/7

  • Revenue growth

    2.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • EPS growth

    -0.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • FCF growth

    3.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail

  • FCF consistently positive

    7 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    -2.5% vs 2.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

4/6

  • Net margin

    4.7% · ≥ 8%

    fail

  • Operating margin

    5.8% · ≥ 10%

    fail

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    14.0% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    16.2% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    5.4% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $8.9B vs NI $4.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    4.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    57% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass

  • Leverage

    0.74 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $31.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    18% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    42% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    6.6% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    17.5 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    4.0% vs 19.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    2.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202694,720—5,4634,43318.558,9253,8095,1161,37479617713,31123,29331,647239
202587,926—5,2174,09216.817,0364,0552,9811,3393,0171545,50219,15128,074243
202487,693—5,5594,33117.218,3125,1763,1361,2592,5001636,50119,77227,582251
202390,155—4,9123,97215.488,8486,1742,6741,1771,5001826,85619,77926,088256
202293,512—6,2453,82614.339,8326,7633,0697932,2481906,89719,79624,939266
202183,959—5,8575,23119.4510,1355,8844,251686—2007,08719,42224,168268
202069,217—2,4171,2864.905,0975,868-77167931684,88121,51818,295262
201969,693—4,4665402.035,6135,4901236831,4801742,31917,51817,757265
201865,450—4,2724,57216.794,6745,663-9895351,0171673,26516,51019,416272
201760,319—4,5662,99711.074,9305,116-1864265091543,96914,87816,073270
201650,365—3,0771,8206.515,7084,8188902772,7221443,53413,68713,784279
201547,453—1,8671,0503.655,3664,3471,0192271,2541333,7637,21714,993287
201445,567—3,8152,3247.484,2643,5337311874,8571172,9084,73615,277310
201344,287—4,4342,7168.554,6883,3751,3131772461094,9172,73917,398317
201242,680—3,1862,0326.414,8354,0078281641971052,8431,25014,727317
201139,304—2,3781,4524.574,0413,434607151—982,3281,53915,220317
201034,734—1,9981,1843.763,1382,816322138—1011,9521,78913,811314
200935,497—747980.312,7532,459294137—992,2921,93013,626312
200837,953—2,0751,1253.603,4652,947518124—1011,539—14,851—

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗