FCX
Freeport-McMoRan · Materials · Copper
$77.80
52w 35.15 – 78.88
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$111.7B
P/E
26.9
P/FCF
100.1
FCF yield
1.0%
ROE
22.0%
Shldr yield
0.9%
div 0.8% + bb 0.1%
What today's price assumes
At $111.7B, the market is pricing in 29.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 1.1% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $10 · $10 · $12 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 6.7× across 15 years, FCX would trade near $26/share (25th–75th percentile: $19–$40); it trades at 19.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+2.7%
Rev 5y
+12.6%
Rev 10y
+5.6%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
−4.9%
FCF 5y
+1.1%
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2011–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $6.9B | −8.1% | $984.0M | +27.5% | 0.68 | $2.0B |
| Q1'26 | $6.3B | +12.2% | $1.4B | +74.9% | 0.61 | $1.5B |
| Q4'25 * | $5.3B | −10.4% | $1.3B | +85.9% | — | $693.0M |
| Q3'25 | $6.8B | +2.1% | $1.2B | +0.9% | 0.46 | $1.7B |
| Q2'25 | $7.5B | +17.6% | $772.0M | −39.7% | 0.53 | $2.2B |
| Q1'25 | $5.6B | −10.3% | $793.0M | −31.8% | 0.24 | $1.1B |
| Q4'24 * | $5.9B | +1.4% | $721.0M | −28.4% | — | $1.4B |
| Q3'24 | $6.7B | +13.9% | $1.2B | +28.2% | 0.36 | $1.9B |
| Q2'24 | $6.4B | +7.9% | $1.3B | +75.1% | 0.42 | $2.0B |
| Q1'24 | $6.2B | +21.4% | $1.2B | +10.8% | 0.32 | $1.9B |
| Q4'23 * | $5.8B | +6.7% | $1.0B | +3.1% | — | $1.3B |
| Q3'23 | $5.9B | +10.5% | $964.0M | +72.1% | 0.31 | $1.2B |
| Q2'23 | $5.9B | −3.9% | $731.0M | −29.6% | 0.23 | $1.7B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +2.7% | +12.6% | +5.6% | — |
| Operating cash flow | +3.0% | +13.2% | +5.7% | — |
| Free cash flow | −12.6% | +1.1% | +2.3% | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +17.7% | +1.2% | −4.9% | — |
| Equity | +6.7% | +13.2% | +9.2% | — |
| LT debt | −2.4% | −1.6% | −7.6% | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.2% | −0.2% | +2.9% | — |
| Stock price | +26.6% | +18.0% | +23.7% | +5.4% |
$100, 3 years ago
$203vs $176 in SPY
26.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$229vs $181 in SPY
18.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$839vs $412 in SPY
23.7% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$221vs $813 in SPY
5.4% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$2.72
$50.0B created / $18.4B retained
Last 10 years
$4.23
$82.0B created / $19.4B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
20.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.99
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
8.0y
SBC / FCF
10.8%
Owner earnings
$995.0M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.9%
Share count 5y
+3.0%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
161.7%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.97
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 25.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 33.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 8.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
13 of 24 checks pass · 54%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/6
- pass
Revenue growth
12.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
1.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
13.2% vs 12.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
16.5% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
25.9% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
22.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
20.2% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
4.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.6B vs NI $4.2B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
8.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
43% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.47 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$18.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
3.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
11% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
87% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.0% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
26.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
29.9% vs 1.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25,186 | — | 6,518 | 4,152 | — | 5,610 | 4,494 | 1,116 | 865 | 107 | 121 | 3,824 | 8,913 | 18,899 | 1,443 |
| 2024 | 25,169 | — | 6,864 | 4,399 | — | 7,160 | 4,808 | 2,352 | 865 | 59 | 109 | 3,923 | 8,907 | 17,581 | 1,445 |
| 2023 | 22,703 | — | 6,225 | 3,751 | — | 5,279 | 4,824 | 455 | 863 | 0 | 109 | 4,758 | 8,656 | 16,693 | 1,443 |
| 2022 | 23,271 | — | 7,037 | 4,479 | — | 5,139 | 3,469 | 1,670 | 866 | 1,347 | 95 | 8,146 | 9,583 | 15,555 | 1,451 |
| 2021 | 22,422 | — | 8,366 | 5,365 | 2.90 | 7,715 | 2,115 | 5,600 | 331 | 488 | 98 | 8,068 | 9,078 | 13,980 | 1,482 |
| 2020 | 13,894 | — | 2,437 | 865 | 0.41 | 3,017 | 1,961 | 1,056 | 73 | 0 | 99 | 3,657 | 9,677 | 10,174 | 1,461 |
| 2019 | 14,348 | — | 1,091 | -189 | -0.17 | 1,482 | 2,652 | -1,170 | 291 | 0 | 63 | 2,020 | 9,821 | 9,298 | 1,451 |
| 2018 | 18,945 | — | 4,754 | 2,894 | 1.78 | 3,863 | 1,971 | 1,892 | 218 | — | 76 | 4,217 | 11,124 | 9,798 | 1,458 |
| 2017 | 15,888 | — | 3,690 | 2,095 | 1.25 | 4,666 | 1,410 | 3,256 | 2 | — | 71 | 4,526 | 11,815 | 7,977 | 1,454 |
| 2016 | 14,564 | — | -2,729 | -4,025 | -3.16 | 3,737 | 2,813 | 924 | 6 | — | 86 | 4,245 | 14,795 | 6,051 | 1,318 |
| 2015 | 14,607 | — | -13,512 | -12,089 | -11.31 | 3,220 | 6,353 | -3,133 | 605 | — | 85 | 177 | 19,675 | 7,828 | 1,082 |
| 2014 | 20,001 | — | -298 | -745 | -1.26 | 5,631 | 7,215 | -1,584 | 1,305 | — | 106 | 298 | 18,371 | 18,287 | 1,039 |
| 2013 | 20,921 | — | 5,351 | 3,441 | 2.64 | 6,139 | 5,286 | 853 | 2,281 | — | 173 | 1,864 | 20,394 | 20,934 | 1,006 |
| 2012 | 18,010 | — | 5,814 | 3,980 | 3.19 | 3,774 | 3,494 | 280 | 1,129 | — | 100 | 3,705 | 3,525 | 17,543 | 954 |
| 2011 | 20,880 | — | 9,140 | 5,747 | 4.78 | 6,620 | 2,534 | 4,086 | 1,423 | — | 117 | 4,822 | 3,533 | 15,642 | 955 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.