FAST
Fastenal · Industrials · Trading Companies & Distributors
$51.28
52w 38.97 – 52.92
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$58.8B
P/E
46.7
P/FCF
56.0
FCF yield
1.8%
ROE
31.9%
Shldr yield
1.7%
div 1.7% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $58.8B, the market is pricing in 21.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 10.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $14 · $22 · $28 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 22.1× across 18 years, FAST would trade near $25/share (25th–75th percentile: $23–$31); it trades at 45.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+5.5%
Rev 5y
+7.7%
Rev 10y
+7.8%
EPS 5y
+7.8%
EPS 10y
+9.4%
FCF 5y
+2.4%
FCF 10y
+10.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $2.4B | +14.7% | $382.8M | +15.9% | 0.33 | $265.7M |
| Q1'26 | $2.2B | +12.4% | $339.8M | +13.8% | 0.30 | $378.4M |
| Q4'25 * | $2.0B | +11.1% | $293.9M | +12.1% | 0.25 | $368.1M |
| Q3'25 | $2.1B | +11.7% | $335.5M | +12.5% | 0.29 | $386.9M |
| Q2'25 | $2.1B | +8.6% | $330.3M | +12.8% | 0.29 | $278.6M |
| Q1'25 | $2.0B | +3.4% | $298.7M | +0.3% | 0.26 | $262.2M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.8B | +3.7% | $262.1M | −1.6% | -0.03 | $282.8M |
| Q3'24 | $1.9B | +3.5% | $298.1M | +0.9% | 0.26 | $296.9M |
| Q2'24 | $1.9B | +1.8% | $292.7M | −1.8% | 0.25 | $258.0M |
| Q1'24 | $1.9B | +1.9% | $297.7M | +0.9% | 0.52 | $335.6M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.8B | +3.7% | $266.4M | +8.5% | -0.55 | $354.0M |
| Q3'23 | $1.8B | +2.4% | $295.5M | +3.8% | 0.52 | $388.1M |
| Q2'23 | $1.9B | +5.9% | $298.0M | +3.8% | 0.52 | $302.1M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +5.5% | +7.7% | +7.8% | +8.9% |
| Operating cash flow | +11.3% | +3.3% | +8.9% | +11.9% |
| Free cash flow | +11.0% | +2.4% | +10.3% | +13.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +4.7% | +7.8% | +9.4% | +11.0% |
| Equity | +7.6% | +7.6% | +8.2% | +7.8% |
| LT debt | −34.3% | −22.8% | −10.5% | — |
| Diluted shares | +0.1% | +0.1% | −0.1% | −0.1% |
| Stock price | +24.2% | +15.7% | +20.0% | +15.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$191vs $176 in SPY
24.2% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$207vs $181 in SPY
15.7% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$617vs $412 in SPY
20.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$896vs $813 in SPY
15.7% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$20.33
$26.6B created / $1.3B retained
Last 10 years
$17.36
$40.4B created / $2.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
32.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.2%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.54
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.1y
SBC / FCF
0.8%
Owner earnings
$1.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.8%
Share count 5y
−0.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
13.8%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.04
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 16.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 21.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 3.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
21 of 27 checks pass · 78%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/7
- pass
Revenue growth
7.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
7.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
2.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
3.3% vs 7.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
15.3% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
20.2% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
45.0% vs 46.1% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
31.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
32.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
12.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $1.3B vs NI $1.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
277% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.03 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$3.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
0% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
96% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
5 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
46.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
21.8% vs 10.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8,201 | 3,691 | 1,656 | 1,258 | 1.09 | 1,296 | 245 | 1,051 | 1,004 | — | 8 | 277 | 100 | 3,944 | 1,150 |
| 2024 | 7,546 | 3,402 | 1,510 | 1,151 | 1.00 | 1,173 | 227 | 947 | 893 | 0 | 8 | 256 | 125 | 3,616 | 1,149 |
| 2023 | 7,347 | 3,355 | 1,529 | 1,155 | 1.01 | 1,433 | 173 | 1,260 | 1,017 | 0 | 7 | 221 | 200 | 3,349 | 1,146 |
| 2022 | 6,981 | 3,216 | 1,454 | 1,087 | 0.95 | 941 | 174 | 767 | 711 | 238 | 7 | 230 | 353 | 3,163 | 1,146 |
| 2021 | 6,011 | 2,777 | 1,217 | 925 | 0.80 | 770 | 157 | 614 | 644 | 0 | 6 | 236 | 330 | 3,042 | 1,149 |
| 2020 | 5,647 | 2,568 | 1,142 | 859 | 0.75 | 1,102 | 168 | 934 | 803 | 52 | 6 | 246 | 365 | 2,733 | 1,146 |
| 2019 | 5,334 | 2,515 | 1,057 | 791 | 0.69 | 843 | 246 | 596 | 499 | 0 | 6 | 175 | 342 | 2,666 | 1,144 |
| 2018 | 4,965 | 2,399 | 999 | 752 | 0.66 | 674 | 176 | 498 | 442 | 103 | 5 | 167 | 497 | 2,303 | 1,143 |
| 2017 | 4,391 | 2,164 | 882 | 579 | 0.50 | 585 | 120 | 465 | 369 | 83 | 5 | 117 | 412 | 2,097 | 1,148 |
| 2016 | 3,962 | 1,965 | 796 | 499 | 0.44 | 520 | 190 | 330 | 347 | 60 | 4 | 113 | 380 | 1,933 | 1,148 |
| 2015 | 3,869 | 1,949 | 829 | 516 | 0.45 | 550 | 155 | 395 | 327 | 293 | 6 | 129 | 303 | 1,801 | 1,160 |
| 2014 | 3,734 | 1,897 | 788 | 494 | 0.42 | 499 | 189 | 310 | 297 | 53 | 7 | 114 | 0 | 1,915 | 1,181 |
| 2013 | 3,326 | 1,719 | 713 | 449 | 0.38 | 416 | 207 | 210 | 237 | 9 | 5 | 59 | — | 1,773 | 1,182 |
| 2012 | 3,134 | 1,615 | 674 | 421 | 0.36 | 396 | 138 | 258 | 367 | 0 | 5 | 80 | — | 1,560 | 1,180 |
| 2011 | 2,767 | 1,434 | 575 | 358 | 0.30 | 268 | 120 | 148 | 192 | 0 | 4 | 118 | — | 1,459 | 1,175 |
| 2010 | 2,269 | 1,175 | 430 | 265 | 0.23 | 240 | 74 | 167 | 183 | 0 | 4 | 144 | — | 1,283 | 1,171 |
| 2009 | 1,930 | 983 | 296 | 184 | 0.16 | 306 | 53 | 254 | 107 | 41 | 4 | 165 | — | 1,191 | 1,178 |
| 2008 | 2,340 | 1,236 | 450 | 280 | — | 260 | 95 | 165 | 117 | 26 | 3 | 86 | — | 1,142 | 1,178 |
| 2007 | 2,062 | 1,048 | 376 | 233 | — | 228 | 56 | 172 | 66 | 87 | 2 | 57 | — | 1,010 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.