FANG
Diamondback Energy · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$205.60
52w 134.30 – 216.90
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$57.6B
P/E
35.5
P/FCF
6.7
FCF yield
14.8%
ROE
4.5%
Shldr yield
2.0%
div 2.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $57.6B, the market is pricing in -7.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 43.8% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $477 · $1,069 · $1,541 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 4.9× across 10 years, FANG would trade near $154/share (25th–75th percentile: $117–$167); it trades at 6.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+16.2%
Rev 5y
+40.4%
Rev 10y
+45.1%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
+32.8%
FCF 10y
+43.8%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $5.6B | +51.2% | $1.9B | +169.2% | 6.65 | $3.6B |
| Q1'26 | $4.2B | +4.7% | $25.0M | −98.2% | 0.08 | $1.8B |
| Q4'25 * | $3.4B | −9.0% | −$1.5B | −235.8% | -4.99 | $2.3B |
| Q3'25 | $3.9B | +48.4% | $1.0B | +54.5% | 3.51 | $2.4B |
| Q2'25 | $3.7B | +48.1% | $699.0M | −16.5% | 2.38 | $1.7B |
| Q1'25 | $4.0B | +81.8% | $1.4B | +82.9% | 4.83 | $2.4B |
| Q4'24 * | $3.7B | +63.2% | $1.1B | +11.9% | 3.40 | $2.3B |
| Q3'24 | $2.6B | +13.0% | $659.0M | −28.0% | 3.19 | $1.2B |
| Q2'24 | $2.5B | +31.0% | $837.0M | +50.5% | 4.66 | $1.5B |
| Q1'24 | $2.2B | +17.1% | $768.0M | +7.9% | 4.28 | $1.3B |
| Q4'23 * | $2.3B | +13.2% | $960.0M | −4.7% | 5.34 | $1.6B |
| Q3'23 | $2.3B | −3.2% | $915.0M | −22.7% | 5.07 | $1.4B |
| Q2'23 | $1.9B | −31.1% | $556.0M | −60.7% | 3.05 | $1.5B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +16.2% | +40.4% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +11.5% | +32.8% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +11.5% | +32.8% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | −38.5% | +25.5% | — | — |
| Equity | +35.1% | +33.3% | — | — |
| LT debt | +30.1% | +19.5% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +17.9% | +12.8% | — | — |
| Stock price | +14.6% | +26.8% | +10.9% | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$150vs $176 in SPY
14.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$328vs $181 in SPY
26.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$282vs $412 in SPY
10.9% vs 15.2%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.59
$39.7B created / $8.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
17.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
12.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.67
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.6y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$8.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
14.8%
Share count 5y
+16.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
456.7%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$4.27
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 115.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 18.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 21.2% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 24 checks pass · 67%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/6
- pass
Revenue growth
40.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
32.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
32.8% vs 40.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/6
- pass
Net margin
11.1% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
8.4% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
4.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
17.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
58.3% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $8.8B vs NI $1.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
1% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.37 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$37.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
19% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
16.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
13% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
6 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
14.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
35.5 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-7.6% vs 43.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
2.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15,026 | — | 1,266 | 1,664 | 5.73 | 8,758 | — | 8,758 | 1,156 | — | — | 104 | 13,726 | 36,972 | 289 |
| 2024 | 11,066 | — | 4,396 | 3,338 | 15.53 | 6,413 | — | 6,413 | 1,578 | 959 | 65 | 161 | 12,075 | 37,736 | 214 |
| 2023 | 8,412 | — | 4,570 | 3,143 | 17.34 | 5,920 | — | 5,920 | 1,444 | 840 | 54 | 582 | 6,641 | 16,625 | 180 |
| 2022 | 9,566 | — | 6,508 | 4,386 | 24.61 | 6,325 | — | 6,325 | 1,572 | 1,098 | 55 | 157 | 6,238 | 15,009 | 177 |
| 2021 | 6,747 | — | 4,001 | 2,182 | 12.24 | 3,944 | — | 3,944 | 312 | 431 | 51 | 654 | 6,642 | 12,088 | 177 |
| 2020 | 2,756 | — | -5,476 | -4,517 | -28.61 | 2,118 | — | 2,118 | 236 | 98 | 37 | 104 | 5,624 | 8,794 | 158 |
| 2019 | 3,887 | — | 695 | 240 | 1.47 | 2,739 | — | 2,739 | 112 | 593 | 48 | 123 | 5,371 | 13,249 | 164 |
| 2018 | 2,130 | — | 1,011 | 846 | 8.06 | 1,565 | — | 1,565 | 37 | 0 | 27 | 215 | 4,464 | 13,700 | 105 |
| 2017 | 1,205 | — | 605 | 482 | 4.94 | 889 | — | 889 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 112 | 1,477 | 5,255 | 98 |
| 2016 | 527 | — | -69 | -165 | -2.20 | 332 | — | 332 | 0 | — | 26 | 1,667 | 1,106 | 3,697 | 75 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.