ETN
Eaton Corporation · Industrials · Electrical Components & Equipment
$408.67
52w 311.92 – 478.00
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$158.7B
P/E
41.0
P/FCF
47.2
FCF yield
2.1%
ROE
21.0%
Shldr yield
2.1%
div 1.0% + bb 1.1%
What today's price assumes
At $158.7B, the market is pricing in 19.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 6.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $139 · $167 · $208 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 11.6× across 16 years, ETN would trade near $134/share (25th–75th percentile: $117–$287); it trades at 35.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+9.8%
Rev 5y
+9.0%
Rev 10y
+4.7%
EPS 5y
+24.5%
EPS 10y
+9.5%
FCF 5y
+6.8%
FCF 10y
+6.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2010–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $8.5B | +21.4% | $821.0M | −16.4% | 2.11 | $1.1B |
| Q1'26 | $7.5B | +16.8% | $866.0M | −10.2% | 2.22 | $507.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $7.1B | +13.1% | $1.1B | +16.5% | 2.90 | $2.0B |
| Q3'25 | $7.0B | +10.1% | $1.0B | +0.1% | 2.59 | $1.4B |
| Q2'25 | $7.0B | +10.7% | $982.0M | −1.1% | 2.51 | $918.0M |
| Q1'25 | $6.4B | +7.3% | $964.0M | +17.4% | 2.45 | $238.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $6.2B | +4.6% | $971.0M | +2.8% | 2.45 | $1.6B |
| Q3'24 | $6.3B | +7.9% | $1.0B | +13.2% | 2.53 | $1.3B |
| Q2'24 | $6.3B | +8.3% | $993.0M | +33.5% | 2.48 | $946.0M |
| Q1'24 | $5.9B | +8.4% | $821.0M | +28.7% | 2.04 | $475.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $6.0B | +10.8% | $945.0M | +30.9% | 2.35 | $1.3B |
| Q3'23 | $5.9B | +10.7% | $891.0M | +46.8% | 2.22 | $1.1B |
| Q2'23 | $5.9B | +12.5% | $744.0M | +23.8% | 1.86 | $850.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +9.8% | +9.0% | +4.7% | +4.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +20.9% | +8.7% | +6.4% | +8.7% |
| Free cash flow | +22.5% | +6.8% | +6.4% | +9.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | +19.4% | +24.5% | +9.5% | +9.4% |
| Equity | +4.5% | +5.4% | +2.5% | +6.6% |
| LT debt | +5.9% | +4.2% | +2.2% | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.8% | −0.6% | −1.8% | +0.9% |
| Stock price | +22.5% | +21.2% | +22.4% | +19.0% |
$100, 3 years ago
$184vs $176 in SPY
22.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$262vs $181 in SPY
21.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$755vs $412 in SPY
22.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,367vs $813 in SPY
19.0% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$10.74
$93.2B created / $8.7B retained
Last 10 years
$8.60
$118.0B created / $13.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
15.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.5%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.75
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.8y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$3.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.1%
Share count 5y
+0.9%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 35.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 24.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 8.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 23 checks pass · 78%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
9.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
24.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
6.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
8.7% vs 9.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
14.9% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
21.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
15.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
12.9% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.5B vs NI $4.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
6% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.51 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$19.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
0.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
98% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.1% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
41.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
19.4% vs 6.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27,448 | — | — | 4,087 | 10.45 | 4,472 | 919 | 3,553 | 1,626 | 1,862 | — | 622 | 9,894 | 19,425 | 391 |
| 2024 | 24,878 | — | — | 3,794 | 9.50 | 4,327 | 808 | 3,519 | 1,500 | 2,492 | — | 555 | 9,152 | 18,488 | 399 |
| 2023 | 23,196 | — | — | 3,218 | 8.02 | 3,624 | 757 | 2,867 | 1,379 | 0 | — | 488 | 9,261 | 19,036 | 401 |
| 2022 | 20,752 | — | — | 2,462 | 6.14 | 2,533 | 598 | 1,935 | 1,299 | 286 | — | 294 | 8,331 | 17,038 | 401 |
| 2021 | 19,628 | — | — | 2,144 | 5.34 | 2,163 | 575 | 1,588 | 1,219 | 122 | — | 297 | 8,566 | 16,413 | 402 |
| 2020 | 17,858 | — | — | 1,410 | 3.49 | 2,944 | 389 | 2,555 | 1,175 | 1,608 | — | 438 | 8,057 | 14,930 | 404 |
| 2019 | 21,390 | — | 3,675 | 2,211 | 5.25 | 3,451 | 587 | 2,864 | 1,201 | 1,029 | 9 | 370 | 8,067 | 16,082 | 421 |
| 2018 | 21,609 | — | 3,630 | 2,145 | 4.91 | 2,658 | 565 | 2,093 | 1,149 | 1,271 | 11 | 283 | 7,107 | 16,107 | 437 |
| 2017 | 20,404 | — | 3,214 | 2,986 | 6.68 | 2,666 | 520 | 2,146 | 1,068 | 850 | 11 | 561 | 7,745 | 17,253 | 447 |
| 2016 | 19,747 | — | 2,958 | 1,919 | 4.20 | 2,570 | 497 | 2,073 | 1,037 | 730 | 14 | 543 | 8,263 | 14,954 | 457 |
| 2015 | 0 | — | 3,133 | 1,974 | 4.22 | 2,409 | 506 | 1,903 | 1,026 | 682 | 12 | 268 | 7,988 | 15,186 | 467 |
| 2014 | 0 | — | 3,312 | 1,803 | 3.76 | 1,878 | 632 | 1,246 | 929 | 650 | 12 | 781 | 8,024 | 15,786 | 477 |
| 2013 | 0 | — | 3,178 | 1,873 | 3.90 | 2,285 | 614 | 1,671 | 796 | 0 | 11 | 915 | 8,969 | 16,791 | 477 |
| 2012 | 0 | — | 2,216 | 1,217 | 3.46 | 1,664 | 593 | 1,071 | 512 | -159 | 7 | 577 | 9,765 | 15,113 | 351 |
| 2011 | 0 | — | 2,260 | 1,350 | 3.93 | 1,248 | 568 | 680 | 462 | 343 | 5 | 385 | 3,366 | 7,469 | 343 |
| 2010 | 13,715 | — | 1,700 | 929 | 2.73 | 1,282 | 394 | 888 | 363 | 0 | 11 | 333 | — | 7,403 | 340 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.