MMarketMath

EQIX

StalwartQuality: Medium (47/100)2 red flags

Equinix · Real Estate · Data Center REITs

$1,055.20

52w 720.62 – 1,128.68

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$104.1B

P/E

77.9

P/FCF

FCF yield

-0.4%

ROE

9.5%

Shldr yield

1.8%

div 1.8% + bb 0.0%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 18.5× across 18 years, EQIX would trade near $732/share (25th–75th percentile: $460–$882); it trades at 26.6× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+8.3%

Rev 5y

+9.0%

Rev 10y

+13.0%

EPS 5y

+26.9%

EPS 10y

+15.7%

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $704.7M
2009: $882.5M
2010: $1.2B
2011: $1.6B
2012: $1.9B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.4B
2015: $2.7B
2016: $3.6B
2017: $4.4B
2018: $5.1B
2019: $5.6B
2020: $6.0B
2021: $6.6B
2022: $7.3B
2023: $8.2B
2024: $8.7B
2025: $9.2B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Net income

2008: $107.9M
2009: $69.4M
2010: $36.9M
2011: $94.8M
2012: $140.0M
2013: $94.7M
2014: −$259.5M
2015: $187.8M
2016: $126.8M
2017: $233.0M
2018: $365.4M
2019: $507.4M
2020: $369.8M
2021: $500.2M
2022: $705.0M
2023: $969.0M
2024: $815.0M
2025: $1.4B
$0$500.0M$1.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Free cash flow

2008: $267.6M
2009: $355.5M
2010: $378.0M
2011: $559.3M
2012: −$466.6M
2013: $32.2M
2014: $29.2M
2015: $26.7M
2016: −$94.0M
2017: $60.5M
2018: −$280.7M
2019: −$86.8M
2020: $27.3M
2021: −$204.3M
2022: $685.0M
2023: $436.0M
2024: $183.0M
2025: −$400.0M
$0$500.0M
08
11
14
17
20
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 41.6M
2009: 39.7M
2010: 44.8M
2011: 47.9M
2012: 51.8M
2013: 50.1M
2014: 52.4M
2015: 58.5M
2016: 70.8M
2017: 77.5M
2018: 80.2M
2019: 84.7M
2020: 88.4M
2021: 90.4M
2022: 91.8M
2023: 94.0M
2024: 95.8M
2025: 98.1M
025.0M50.0M75.0M
08
11
14
17
20
23

Margins

-20%0%20%40%081114172023
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2011: $86.7M
2012: $13.4M
2013: $48.8M
2014: $381.2M
2015: $521.5M
2016: $499.5M
2017: $621.5M
2018: $738.6M
2019: $836.2M
2020: $947.9M
2021: $1.0B
2022: $1.2B
2023: $1.4B
2024: $1.6B
2025: $1.9B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B081114172023
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $2.0B
Q3'23: $2.1B
Q4'23: $1.9B
Q1'24: $2.1B
Q2'24: $2.2B
Q3'24: $2.2B
Q4'24: $2.3B
Q1'25: $2.2B
Q2'25: $2.3B
Q3'25: $2.3B
Q4'25: $2.4B
Q1'26: $2.4B
Q2'26: $2.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $207.0M
Q3'23: $276.0M
Q4'23: $227.0M
Q1'24: $231.0M
Q2'24: $301.0M
Q3'24: $297.0M
Q4'24: −$14.0M
Q1'25: $343.0M
Q2'25: $368.0M
Q3'25: $374.0M
Q4'25: $265.0M
Q1'26: $415.0M
Q2'26: $479.0M
$0$200.0M$400.0M
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$2.6B+16.4%$479.0M+30.2%4.83$1.1B
Q1'26$2.4B+9.8%$415.0M+21.0%4.20$717.0M
Q4'25 *$2.4B+7.0%$265.0M2.70$1.1B
Q3'25$2.3B+5.2%$374.0M+25.9%3.81$1.0B
Q2'25$2.3B+4.5%$368.0M+22.3%3.75$944.0M
Q1'25$2.2B+4.6%$343.0M+48.5%3.50$809.0M
Q4'24 *$2.3B+20.1%−$14.0M−106.2%-0.19$981.0M
Q3'24$2.2B+6.8%$297.0M+7.6%3.10$758.0M
Q2'24$2.2B+6.9%$301.0M+45.4%3.16$912.0M
Q1'24$2.1B−4.4%$231.0M−10.8%2.43$598.0M
Q4'23 *$1.9B+0.7%$227.0M+75.4%2.40$999.0M
Q3'23$2.1B+12.0%$276.0M+30.3%2.93$785.0M
Q2'23$2.0B+11.1%$207.0M−4.3%2.21$741.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+8.3%+9.0%+13.0%+14.6%
Operating cash flow+9.7%+11.1%+15.9%+16.6%
Free cash flow+60.9%+17.1%+20.1%−4.3%
EPS (diluted)+21.5%+26.9%+15.7%+20.7%
Equity+7.2%+5.9%+17.8%+14.5%
LT debt+9.4%+8.1%+15.9%
Diluted shares+2.2%+2.1%+5.3%+5.4%
Stock price+12.7%+6.6%+13.2%+19.9%

$100, 3 years ago

$143vs $176 in SPY

12.7% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$138vs $181 in SPY

6.6% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$346vs $412 in SPY

13.2% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,526vs $813 in SPY

19.9% vs 15.0%/yr

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

27.6%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.8%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.69

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

−$898.0M

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-0.9%

Share count 5y

+5.2%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

255.9%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$2.82

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

13 of 22 checks pass · 59%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/6

  • Revenue growth

    9.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    26.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    5 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    11.1% vs 9.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

4/6

  • Net margin

    14.6% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    20.0% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    9.5% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    27.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    -4.3% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $3.9B vs NI $1.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $14.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    29% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

0/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    5.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na
  • Repurchases are a habit

    0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

0/3

  • FCF yield

    -0.4% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    77.9 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    1.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20259,2171,8481,35013.763,9114,311-4001,8564981,72714,15698
20248,7481,3288158.503,2493,0661831,6434623,08115,33413,52896
20238,1881,44396910.313,2172,7814361,3754072,09613,84112,48994
20227,2631,2007057.672,9632,2786851,1524041,90612,88111,50692
20216,6361,1085005.532,5472,752-2041,0433641,53611,72210,88290
20205,9991,0533704.182,3102,283279482951,60510,63410,63488
20195,5621,1705075.991,9932,080-878362371,87010,4018,84185
20185,0729773654.561,8152,096-2817391816069,8917,21980
20174,3688092333.001,4391,379616211761,4138,4706,85078
20163,6126191271.791,0191,113-9449901567485,3104,36671
20152,7265671883.218958682752101322,2295,2462,74558
20142,444509-260-4.9668966029832981186113,5042,27052
20132,153461951.8960557232491032623,2732,45950
20121,8873931402.836321,099-46713832522,4502,31352
20111,566306951.745872855987722792,6971,93648
20101,196194370.8239315378674431,86445
2009883181691.75355355533461,18240
2008705731082.792682685522091742

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.