MMarketMath

EOG

Fast growerQuality: High (83/100)1 red flag

EOG Resources · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$150.21

52w 101.59 – 153.67

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$78.8B

P/E

16.0

P/FCF

7.9

FCF yield

12.6%

ROE

16.7%

Shldr yield

3.2%

div 0.0% + bb 3.2%

What today's price assumes

At $78.8B, the market is pricing in -5.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 10.8% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $292 · $481 · $600 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 5.5× across 19 years, EOG would trade near $105/share (25th–75th percentile: $86–$117); it trades at 7.8× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

−4.2%

Rev 5y

+15.5%

Rev 10y

+10.0%

EPS 5y

—

EPS 10y

—

FCF 5y

+14.9%

FCF 10y

+10.8%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $4.2B
2008: $7.1B
2009: $4.8B
2010: $6.1B
2011: $10.1B
2012: $11.7B
2013: $14.5B
2014: $18.0B
2015: $8.8B
2016: $7.7B
2017: $11.2B
2018: $17.3B
2019: $17.4B
2020: $11.0B
2021: $18.6B
2022: $25.7B
2023: $24.2B
2024: $23.7B
2025: $22.6B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $1.1B
2008: $2.4B
2009: $546.6M
2010: $160.7M
2011: $1.1B
2012: $570.3M
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.9B
2015: −$4.5B
2016: −$1.1B
2017: $2.6B
2018: $3.4B
2019: $2.7B
2020: −$605.0M
2021: $4.7B
2022: $7.8B
2023: $7.6B
2024: $6.4B
2025: $5.0B
$0$5.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $2.9B
2008: $4.6B
2009: $2.9B
2010: $2.7B
2011: $4.6B
2012: $5.2B
2013: $7.3B
2014: $8.6B
2015: $3.6B
2016: $2.4B
2017: $4.3B
2018: $7.8B
2019: $8.2B
2020: $5.0B
2021: $8.8B
2022: $11.1B
2023: $11.3B
2024: $12.1B
2025: $10.0B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 503.6M
2008: 509.5M
2009: 512.3M
2010: 517.6M
2011: 541.5M
2012: 541.5M
2013: 546.2M
2014: 548.5M
2015: 545.7M
2016: 553.4M
2017: 578.7M
2018: 580.4M
2019: 581.0M
2020: 579.0M
2021: 584.0M
2022: 587.0M
2023: 584.0M
2024: 569.0M
2025: 546.0M
0200.0M400.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-50%0%50%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $7.6M
2008: $17.8M
2009: $11.0M
2010: $11.3M
2011: $23.9M
2012: $58.6M
2013: $63.8M
2014: $127.4M
2015: $48.8M
2016: $82.1M
2017: $63.4M
2018: $63.5M
2019: $25.0M
2020: $16.0M
2021: $41.0M
2022: $118.0M
2023: $1.0B
2024: $3.2B
2025: $2.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $5.6B
Q3'23: $6.2B
Q4'23: $6.4B
Q1'24: $6.1B
Q2'24: $6.0B
Q3'24: $6.0B
Q4'24: $5.6B
Q1'25: $5.7B
Q2'25: $5.5B
Q3'25: $5.8B
Q4'25: $5.6B
Q1'26: $6.9B
Q2'26: $8.6B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.6B
Q3'23: $2.0B
Q4'23: $2.0B
Q1'24: $1.8B
Q2'24: $1.7B
Q3'24: $1.7B
Q4'24: $1.3B
Q1'25: $1.5B
Q2'25: $1.3B
Q3'25: $1.5B
Q4'25: $701.0M
Q1'26: $2.0B
Q2'26: $2.7B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$8.6B+57.4%$2.7B+102.5%5.15$4.7B
Q1'26$6.9B+22.1%$2.0B+35.3%3.70$3.0B
Q4'25 *$5.6B+0.9%$701.0M−44.0%1.31$2.6B
Q3'25$5.8B−2.0%$1.5B−12.1%2.70$3.1B
Q2'25$5.5B−9.1%$1.3B−20.4%2.46$2.0B
Q1'25$5.7B−7.4%$1.5B−18.2%2.65$2.3B
Q4'24 *$5.6B−12.1%$1.3B−37.1%2.25$2.8B
Q3'24$6.0B−4.0%$1.7B−17.6%2.95$3.6B
Q2'24$6.0B+8.1%$1.7B+8.8%2.95$2.9B
Q1'24$6.1B+1.3%$1.8B−11.6%3.10$2.9B
Q4'23 *$6.4B−5.4%$2.0B−12.7%3.41$3.1B
Q3'23$6.2B−18.2%$2.0B−28.9%3.48$2.7B
Q2'23$5.6B−24.8%$1.6B−30.6%2.66$2.3B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue−4.2%+15.5%+10.0%+9.1%
Operating cash flow−3.3%+14.9%+10.8%+9.1%
Free cash flow−3.3%+14.9%+10.8%+9.1%
EPS (diluted)−11.6%+11.6%+5.0%+25.3%
Equity+6.4%+8.0%+8.7%+7.4%
LT debt+27.7%+9.5%+1.8%+3.1%
Diluted shares−2.4%−1.2%+0.0%+0.4%
Stock price+9.1%+23.0%+8.9%+10.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$130vs $176 in SPY

9.1% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$282vs $181 in SPY

23.0% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$234vs $412 in SPY

8.9% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$463vs $813 in SPY

10.8% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$1.20

$37.5B created / $31.4B retained

Last 10 years

$0.84

$32.4B created / $38.4B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

26.6%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

11.9%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.79

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

0.8y

SBC / FCF

2.2%

Owner earnings

$9.8B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

12.3%

Share count 5y

+0.4%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

187.1%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$1.18

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 23.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 40.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

23 of 25 checks pass · 92%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/6

  • Revenue growth

    15.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • FCF growth

    14.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    14.9% vs 15.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/6

  • Net margin

    22.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    28.2% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    16.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    26.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    44.4% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $10.0B vs NI $5.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    0.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    43% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.27 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $29.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    26% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    12.6% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    16.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    -5.1% vs 10.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    3.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Revenue declining

Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202522,632—6,3854,9809.1210,044—10,044—2,5642163,3967,90929,833546
202423,698—8,0826,40311.2512,143—12,143—3,2461997,0924,22029,351569
202324,186—9,6037,59413.0011,340—11,340—1,0381775,2783,76528,090584
202225,702—9,9667,75913.2211,093—11,093—1181335,9723,79524,779587
202118,642—6,1024,6647.998,791—8,791—411525,2095,07222,180584
202011,032—-544-605-1.045,008—5,008—161463,3295,03520,302579
201917,380—3,6992,7354.718,163—8,163—251752,0284,16121,640581
201817,275—4,4693,4195.897,769—7,769—631551,5565,17019,364580
201711,208—9262,5834.464,265—4,265—631348346,03116,283579
20167,651—-1,225-1,097-1.982,359—2,359—821281,6006,98013,982553
20158,757—-6,686-4,525-8.293,595—3,5950491317196,64912,943546
201418,035—5,2422,9155.328,649—8,64901271452,0875,90317,713549
201314,487—3,6752,1974.027,329—7,3290641341,3185,90715,418546
201211,683—1,4805701.055,237—5,237—591288765,90613,285542
201110,126—2,1131,0912.024,578—4,578—241286165,00912,641542
20106,100—5231610.312,709—2,709—111077895,00310,232518
20094,787—9715471.072,922—2,922—11956862,7609,998512
20087,127—3,7672,4374.784,633—4,633—18973311,8609,014510
20074,239—1,6481,0902.152,901—2,901—86754—6,990504

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗