MMarketMath

EMR

Slow growerQuality: Medium (59/100)

Emerson Electric · Industrials · Electrical Components & Equipment

$157.57

52w 122.64 – 166.35

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$87.9B

P/E

37.6

P/FCF

32.4

FCF yield

3.1%

ROE

11.3%

Shldr yield

2.7%

div 1.4% + bb 1.4%

What today's price assumes

At $87.9B, the market is pricing in 14.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 3.2% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $69 · $69 · $86 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 10.4× across 18 years, EMR would trade near $58/share (25th–75th percentile: $47–$89); it trades at 28.4× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+9.3%

Rev 5y

+1.4%

Rev 10y

+1.0%

EPS 5y

+4.5%

EPS 10y

+0.1%

FCF 5y

+0.9%

FCF 10y

+3.2%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $22.1B
2008: $23.8B
2009: $20.1B
2010: $21.0B
2011: $24.2B
2012: $24.4B
2013: $24.7B
2014: $17.7B
2015: $16.2B
2016: $14.5B
2017: $15.3B
2018: $17.4B
2019: $18.4B
2020: $16.8B
2021: $12.9B
2022: $13.8B
2023: $15.2B
2024: $17.5B
2025: $18.0B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $2.1B
2008: $2.4B
2009: $1.7B
2010: $2.2B
2011: $2.5B
2012: $2.0B
2013: $2.0B
2014: $2.1B
2015: $2.7B
2016: $1.6B
2017: $1.5B
2018: $2.2B
2019: $2.3B
2020: $2.0B
2021: $2.3B
2022: $3.2B
2023: $13.2B
2024: $2.0B
2025: $2.3B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $3.7B
2008: $2.6B
2009: $2.6B
2010: $2.8B
2011: $2.6B
2012: $2.4B
2013: $3.0B
2014: $3.0B
2015: $1.9B
2016: $2.4B
2017: $1.4B
2018: $2.3B
2019: $2.4B
2020: $2.5B
2021: $3.2B
2022: $2.6B
2023: $274.0M
2024: $2.9B
2025: $2.7B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 789.4M
2009: 758.7M
2010: 757.0M
2011: 753.5M
2012: 734.6M
2013: 722.9M
2014: 704.1M
2015: 676.5M
2016: 646.8M
2017: 643.4M
2018: 635.3M
2019: 620.6M
2020: 606.6M
2021: 601.8M
2022: 596.3M
2023: 577.3M
2024: 574.0M
2025: 566.7M
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

0%25%50%75%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $1.7B
2008: $2.1B
2009: $1.7B
2010: $1.1B
2011: $2.0B
2012: $2.0B
2013: $2.3B
2014: $2.3B
2015: $3.8B
2016: $1.8B
2017: $1.6B
2018: $2.2B
2019: $2.5B
2020: $2.2B
2021: $1.7B
2022: $1.7B
2023: $3.2B
2024: $1.6B
2025: $2.4B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q3'23: $3.9B
Q4'23: $4.1B
Q1'24: $4.1B
Q2'24: $4.4B
Q3'24: $4.4B
Q4'24: $4.6B
Q1'25: $4.2B
Q2'25: $4.4B
Q3'25: $4.6B
Q4'25: $4.9B
Q1'26: $4.3B
Q2'26: $4.6B
Q3'26: $4.9B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
24
25
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q3'23: $9.4B
Q4'23: $744.0M
Q1'24: $142.0M
Q2'24: $501.0M
Q3'24: $329.0M
Q4'24: $996.0M
Q1'25: $585.0M
Q2'25: $485.0M
Q3'25: $586.0M
Q4'25: $637.0M
Q1'26: $605.0M
Q2'26: $618.0M
Q3'26: $718.0M
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
23
24
25
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q3'26$4.9B+7.0%$718.0M+22.5%1.28$1.4B
Q2'26$4.6B+2.9%$618.0M+27.4%—$779.0M
Q1'26$4.3B+4.1%$605.0M+3.4%1.07$699.0M
Q4'25$4.9B+5.1%$637.0M−36.0%1.12$1.0B
Q3'25$4.6B+3.9%$586.0M+78.1%1.04$1.1B
Q2'25$4.4B+1.3%$485.0M−3.2%0.86$241.0M
Q1'25$4.2B+1.4%$585.0M+312.0%1.02$777.0M
Q4'24$4.6B+12.9%$996.0M+33.9%1.73$1.1B
Q3'24$4.4B+11.0%$329.0M−96.5%0.57$1.1B
Q2'24$4.4B+16.5%$501.0M−36.7%0.87$743.0M
Q1'24$4.1B+22.1%$142.0M−93.9%0.25$415.0M
Q4'23$4.1B+5.1%$744.0M+0.5%1.29−$643.0M
Q3'23$3.9B+13.9%$9.4B+915.4%16.28$794.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+9.3%+1.4%+1.0%−1.0%
Operating cash flow+2.0%+0.1%+2.1%−0.4%
Free cash flow+0.6%+0.9%+3.2%−0.2%
EPS (diluted)−9.3%+4.5%+0.1%+2.4%
Equity+25.1%+19.3%+9.6%+5.0%
LT debt+0.2%+5.6%+6.8%+4.1%
Diluted shares−1.7%−1.4%−1.8%−1.9%
Stock price+19.0%+10.4%+14.3%+11.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$168vs $176 in SPY

19.0% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$164vs $181 in SPY

10.4% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$381vs $412 in SPY

14.3% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$504vs $813 in SPY

11.4% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.54

$43.2B created / $17.0B retained

Last 10 years

$2.63

$54.0B created / $20.5B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

10.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.3%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.79

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

3.1y

SBC / FCF

9.9%

Owner earnings

$2.4B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

2.8%

Share count 5y

−1.9%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

15.9%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$-0.66

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 115.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 0.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 0.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

15 of 25 checks pass · 60%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/7

  • Revenue growth

    1.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • EPS growth

    4.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • FCF growth

    0.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    0.1% vs 1.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

4/6

  • Net margin

    12.7% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    — · ≥ 10%

    na

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    52.8% vs 45.7% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass

  • Return on equity

    11.3% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    10.8% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • FCF margin

    14.8% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $3.1B vs NI $2.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    3.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    19% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.41 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $20.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    — · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.9% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    10% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    88% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.1% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    37.6 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    14.3% vs 3.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail

  • Shareholder yield

    2.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202518,0169,519—2,2934.043,0984312,6671,1921,1672631,5448,31920,282567
202417,4928,885—1,9683.433,3324192,9131,2014352603,5887,15521,636574
202315,1657,427—13,21922.886373632741,1982,0002508,0517,61020,689577
202213,8046,306—3,2315.412,9222992,6231,2235001251,8048,25910,364596
202112,9327,563—2,3033.823,5754043,1711,2105001972,3545,7939,883602
202016,7857,009—1,9653.243,0835382,5451,2099421103,3156,3268,405607
201918,3727,815—2,3063.713,0065942,4121,2091,2501201,4944,2778,233621
201817,4087,432—2,2033.462,8926172,2751,2291,0002161,0933,1378,947635
201715,2646,404—1,5182.351,9124761,4361,2394001103,0623,7948,718643
201614,5226,262—1,6352.522,8814472,4341,2276011453,1824,0517,568647
201516,2497,008—2,7103.992,5295881,9411,2692,501243,0544,2898,081677
201417,73310,158—2,1473.033,6926513,0411,2101,0481233,1493,55910,119704
201324,6699,952—2,0042.763,6496782,9711,1811,1102213,2754,05510,585723
201224,4129,768—1,9682.673,0536652,3881,1717971002,3673,78710,295735
201124,2229,557—2,4803.273,2336472,5861,0399351212,0524,32410,399754
201021,0398,326—2,1642.843,2925242,7681,0091002171,5924,5869,792757
200920,1027,560—1,7242.273,0865312,555998718541,5603,9988,555759
200823,751——2,4123.063,2937142,5799401,120—1,7773,2979,113789
200722,131——2,1362.663,016-6813,697-837-853—1,008———

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗