ECL
Ecolab · Materials · Specialty Chemicals
$286.98
52w 243.15 – 309.27
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$80.4B
P/E
38.6
P/FCF
42.0
FCF yield
2.4%
ROE
21.2%
Shldr yield
1.9%
div 0.9% + bb 1.0%
What today's price assumes
At $80.4B, the market is pricing in 17.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.5% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $104 · $107 · $134 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 17.7× across 19 years, ECL would trade near $186/share (25th–75th percentile: $158–$247); it trades at 27.2× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+4.3%
Rev 5y
+6.4%
Rev 10y
+1.7%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+8.2%
FCF 5y
+6.8%
FCF 10y
+4.5%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $4.4B | +9.7% | $534.9M | +2.0% | 1.90 | $729.5M |
| Q1'26 | $4.1B | +10.0% | $432.6M | +7.5% | 1.52 | $445.9M |
| Q4'25 * | $4.2B | +4.8% | $563.9M | — | 1.98 | $1.1B |
| Q3'25 | $4.2B | +4.2% | $585.0M | −20.6% | 2.05 | $791.3M |
| Q2'25 | $4.0B | +1.0% | $524.2M | +6.8% | 1.84 | $701.8M |
| Q1'25 | $3.7B | −1.5% | $402.5M | −2.3% | 1.41 | $369.4M |
| Q4'24 | $4.0B | +1.7% | — | — | 1.66 | $766.7M |
| Q3'24 | $4.0B | +1.0% | $736.5M | +82.3% | 2.58 | $786.7M |
| Q2'24 | $4.0B | +3.5% | $490.9M | +48.9% | 1.71 | $611.1M |
| Q1'24 | $3.8B | +5.0% | $412.1M | +76.6% | 1.43 | $649.4M |
| Q4'23 | $3.9B | +7.3% | — | — | 1.41 | $852.5M |
| Q3'23 | $4.0B | +7.9% | $404.0M | +16.4% | 1.41 | $787.7M |
| Q2'23 | $3.9B | +7.6% | $329.7M | +6.9% | 1.15 | $573.4M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.3% | +6.4% | +1.7% | +6.7% |
| Operating cash flow | +18.2% | +9.7% | +4.0% | +7.8% |
| Free cash flow | +21.0% | +6.8% | +4.5% | +7.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +24.1% | +5.3% | +8.2% | +8.2% |
| Equity | +10.5% | +9.6% | +3.5% | +10.7% |
| LT debt | −3.0% | +2.0% | +5.6% | +17.5% |
| Diluted shares | −0.2% | −0.4% | −0.6% | +1.2% |
| Stock price | +17.2% | +6.1% | +10.0% | +13.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$161vs $176 in SPY
17.2% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$135vs $181 in SPY
6.1% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$260vs $412 in SPY
10.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$633vs $813 in SPY
13.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$5.26
$24.1B created / $4.6B retained
Last 10 years
$7.62
$51.0B created / $6.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
17.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.71
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.9y
SBC / FCF
7.2%
Owner earnings
$1.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.2%
Share count 5y
+0.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
26.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.27
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 40.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 22.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 9.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 25 checks pass · 72%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/6
- pass
Revenue growth
6.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
6.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
9.7% vs 6.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
12.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
17.0% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
21.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
17.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
11.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.0B vs NI $2.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
9% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.75 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$9.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
11% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
0.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
81% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.4% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
38.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
17.8% vs 4.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16,081 | — | 2,738 | 2,076 | 7.28 | 2,953 | 1,048 | 1,904 | 754 | 784 | 137 | 646 | 7,366 | 9,771 | 285 |
| 2024 | 15,741 | — | 2,802 | 2,112 | 7.37 | 2,814 | 995 | 1,819 | 664 | 987 | 135 | 1,257 | 6,949 | 8,757 | 287 |
| 2023 | 15,320 | — | 1,992 | 1,372 | 4.79 | 2,412 | 775 | 1,637 | 617 | 14 | 95 | 920 | 7,551 | 8,045 | 287 |
| 2022 | 14,188 | — | 1,563 | 1,092 | 3.81 | 1,788 | 713 | 1,076 | 603 | 518 | 88 | 599 | 8,075 | 7,236 | 287 |
| 2021 | 12,733 | — | 1,599 | 1,130 | 3.91 | 2,062 | 643 | 1,419 | 566 | 107 | 90 | 360 | 8,347 | 7,224 | 289 |
| 2020 | 11,790 | — | 1,396 | -1,186 | -4.15 | 1,860 | 489 | 1,371 | 561 | 146 | 82 | 1,260 | 6,669 | 6,167 | 290 |
| 2019 | 12,562 | — | 1,845 | 1,576 | 5.33 | 2,421 | 731 | 1,689 | 553 | 354 | 84 | 119 | 5,973 | 8,685 | 293 |
| 2018 | 12,222 | — | 1,728 | 1,440 | 4.88 | 2,278 | 779 | 1,499 | 495 | 562 | 88 | 115 | 6,302 | 8,003 | 293 |
| 2017 | 13,836 | — | 1,950 | 1,519 | 5.12 | 2,091 | 869 | 1,223 | 449 | 600 | 91 | 211 | 6,758 | 7,584 | 294 |
| 2016 | 13,152 | — | 1,870 | 1,247 | 4.14 | 1,940 | 757 | 1,183 | 428 | 740 | 86 | 327 | 6,146 | 6,901 | 297 |
| 2015 | 13,545 | — | 1,561 | 1,017 | 3.32 | 2,000 | 771 | 1,229 | 401 | 755 | 78 | 93 | 4,260 | 6,910 | 301 |
| 2014 | 14,281 | — | 1,955 | 1,222 | 3.93 | 1,816 | 749 | 1,067 | 344 | 429 | 71 | 210 | 4,843 | 7,316 | 306 |
| 2013 | 13,253 | — | 1,561 | 974 | 3.16 | 1,560 | 625 | 935 | 218 | 308 | 70 | 339 | 6,044 | 7,344 | 306 |
| 2012 | 11,839 | — | 1,289 | 701 | 2.35 | 1,203 | 575 | 629 | 307 | 210 | 66 | 1,158 | 5,736 | 6,077 | 299 |
| 2011 | 6,799 | — | 754 | 463 | 1.91 | 686 | 342 | 344 | 163 | 690 | 40 | 1,844 | 6,613 | 5,667 | 242 |
| 2010 | 6,090 | — | 807 | 530 | 2.23 | 950 | 261 | 690 | 146 | 349 | 29 | 242 | 656 | 2,129 | 238 |
| 2009 | 5,901 | — | 681 | 417 | 1.74 | 695 | 253 | 443 | 133 | 69 | 37 | 74 | 869 | 2,001 | 240 |
| 2008 | 6,138 | — | 713 | 448 | 1.80 | 753 | 327 | 427 | 129 | 337 | 34 | 67 | 799 | 1,572 | 249 |
| 2007 | 5,470 | — | 669 | 427 | 1.70 | 798 | 307 | 491 | 114 | 371 | 38 | 137 | — | 1,943 | 252 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.