MMarketMath

DUK

StalwartQuality: Medium (48/100)2 red flags

Duke Energy · Utilities · Electric Utilities

$121.97

52w 113.90 – 134.49

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$95.1B

P/E

19.5

P/FCF

—

FCF yield

-1.8%

ROE

9.6%

Shldr yield

0.0%

div 0.0% + bb 0.0%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 5.6× across 18 years, DUK would trade near $89/share (25th–75th percentile: $67–$106); it trades at 7.7× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+3.4%

Rev 5y

+6.4%

Rev 10y

+3.6%

EPS 5y

+29.7%

EPS 10y

+4.5%

FCF 5y

—

FCF 10y

—

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $12.7B
2008: $13.2B
2009: $12.7B
2010: $14.3B
2011: $14.5B
2012: $19.6B
2013: $22.8B
2014: $22.5B
2015: $22.4B
2016: $22.7B
2018: $23.8B
2019: $24.3B
2020: $23.3B
2021: $24.5B
2022: $28.7B
2023: $28.7B
2024: $30.1B
2025: $31.7B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
07
10
13
16
20
23

Net income

2007: $1.5B
2008: $1.4B
2009: $1.1B
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.7B
2012: $1.8B
2013: $2.7B
2014: $1.9B
2015: $2.8B
2016: $2.2B
2018: $2.7B
2019: $3.7B
2020: $1.4B
2021: $3.9B
2022: $2.5B
2023: $2.8B
2024: $4.5B
2025: $5.0B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
07
10
13
16
20
23

Free cash flow

2007: $83.0M
2008: −$1.1B
2009: −$833.0M
2010: −$292.0M
2011: −$691.0M
2012: −$257.0M
2013: $856.0M
2014: $1.2B
2015: −$66.0M
2016: −$1.0B
2018: −$2.2B
2019: −$2.9B
2020: −$1.1B
2021: −$1.4B
2022: −$5.4B
2023: −$2.7B
2024: $48.0M
2025: −$1.7B
−$4.0B−$2.0B$0
07
10
13
16
20
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 430.1M
2008: 430.8M
2009: 440.0M
2010: 440.0M
2011: 444.0M
2012: 575.0M
2013: 706.0M
2014: 707.0M
2015: 694.0M
2016: 691.0M
2018: 708.0M
2019: 729.0M
2020: 738.0M
2021: 769.0M
2022: 770.0M
2023: 771.0M
2024: 772.0M
2025: 777.0M
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
07
10
13
16
20
23

Margins

-20%0%071013162023
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $1.1B
2008: $1.1B
2009: $1.2B
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.3B
2012: $1.8B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.2B
2015: $3.8B
2016: $2.3B
2018: $2.5B
2019: $2.7B
2020: $2.8B
2021: $3.1B
2022: $3.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
10
13
16
20
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B071013162023
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $7.1B
Q2'23: $6.5B
Q3'23: $8.0B
Q1'24: $7.5B
Q2'24: $7.2B
Q3'24: $8.1B
Q4'24: $7.2B
Q1'25: $8.2B
Q2'25: $7.4B
Q3'25: $8.4B
Q4'25: $7.8B
Q1'26: $9.0B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $804.0M
Q2'23: −$220.0M
Q3'23: $1.3B
Q4'23: $996.0M
Q1'24: $1.1B
Q2'24: $900.0M
Q3'24: $1.3B
Q4'24: $1.2B
Q1'25: $1.4B
Q2'25: $984.0M
Q3'25: $1.4B
Q4'25: $1.2B
Q1'26: $1.6B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$9.0B+9.5%$1.6B+12.4%1.97$1.5B
Q4'25 *$7.8B+7.4%$1.2B−1.7%1.49$3.7B
Q3'25$8.4B+3.1%$1.4B+10.9%1.81$3.6B
Q2'25$7.4B+3.1%$984.0M+9.3%1.25$2.9B
Q1'25$8.2B+9.1%$1.4B+21.2%1.76$2.2B
Q4'24 *$7.2B—$1.2B+21.0%1.54$3.4B
Q3'24$8.1B+1.9%$1.3B+2.3%1.60$3.5B
Q2'24$7.2B+10.5%$900.0M—1.13$3.0B
Q1'24$7.5B+6.1%$1.1B+41.5%1.44$2.5B
Q4'23——$996.0M—1.27$2.6B
Q3'23$8.0B+1.6%$1.3B−12.0%1.59$3.5B
Q2'23$6.5B−0.9%−$220.0M−124.3%-0.32$2.3B
Q1'23$7.1B+1.6%$804.0M−6.2%1.01$1.5B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+3.4%+6.4%+3.6%+5.5%
Operating cash flow+27.7%+6.8%+6.3%+6.9%
Free cash flow−27.5%−27.5%−27.5%−3.2%
EPS (diluted)+25.8%+29.7%+4.5%+5.1%
Equity+1.7%+1.6%+2.7%+5.7%
LT debt+6.7%+7.6%+8.1%+10.9%
Diluted shares+0.3%+1.0%+1.1%+3.9%
Stock price+15.1%+7.0%+8.6%+9.7%

$100, 3 years ago

$152vs $176 in SPY

15.1% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$140vs $181 in SPY

7.0% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$228vs $412 in SPY

8.6% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$399vs $813 in SPY

9.7% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.93

$36.6B created / $12.5B retained

Last 10 years

$4.82

$58.6B created / $12.2B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

9.3%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

7.0%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.78

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

—

SBC / FCF

—

Owner earnings

−$1.8B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-1.9%

Share count 5y

+3.3%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

409.4%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$2.73

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 58.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 12.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 7.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

10 of 21 checks pass · 48%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/6

  • Revenue growth

    6.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    29.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • FCF growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    1 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    6.8% vs 6.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

3/6

  • Net margin

    15.7% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    27.2% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    9.6% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    9.3% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • FCF margin

    -5.3% · ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $12.3B vs NI $5.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

1/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    — · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    na

  • Cash cushion

    0% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    1.55 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $51.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    42% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

0/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    3.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail

  • Stock comp restrained

    — · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    — · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na

  • Repurchases are a habit

    1 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

1/3

  • FCF yield

    -1.8% · ≥ 3%

    fail

  • Earnings multiple

    19.5 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    — · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na

  • Shareholder yield

    0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202531,741—8,6264,9686.3112,33014,024-1,694——10224580,10851,842777
202430,050—7,9264,5245.7112,32812,28048——9631476,34050,127772
202328,674—7,0702,8413.549,87812,604-2,726——9725372,45249,112771
202228,675—6,0122,5503.175,92711,367-5,4403,179—10040965,87349,322770
202124,486—5,5003,9084.948,2909,715-1,4253,114—8834160,44849,296769
202023,253—4,5711,3771.728,8569,907-1,0512,812—8425955,62547,964738
201924,348—5,7093,7485.068,20911,122-2,9132,668—8931154,98546,822729
201823,757—4,6852,6663.767,1869,389-2,2032,471—7844251,12343,817708
201622,743—5,2022,1523.116,8637,901-1,0382,332—5539245,57641,033691
201522,371—5,0782,8164.056,7006,766-662,2541,5006138336,84239,727694
201422,509—4,8421,8832.666,5865,3841,2022,234—6146337,06140,875707
201322,756—4,8542,6653.766,3825,5268562,188—8547638,15241,330706
201219,624—2,9111,7683.075,2445,501-2571,752—781,42436,35140,863575
201114,529—2,7771,7063.833,6724,363-6911,329—522,11017,73022,772444
201014,272—2,4611,3203.004,5114,803-292-1,284—671,67016,95922,522440
200912,731—2,2491,0752.443,4634,296-8331,222—401,54215,73221,750440
200813,207—2,5111,3623.153,3284,386-1,0581,143—4398613,25020,988431
200712,720—2,4931,5003.473,2083,125831,089——678—21,380430

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗