MMarketMath

DLR

StalwartQuality: Medium (62/100)1 red flag

Digital Realty · Real Estate · Data Center REITs

$188.55

52w 146.23 – 208.14

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$66.3B

P/E

51.2

P/FCF

27.8

FCF yield

3.6%

ROE

5.7%

Shldr yield

2.6%

div 2.6% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $66.3B, the market is pricing in 12.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.7% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $105 · $184 · $230 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 17.4× across 17 years, DLR would trade near $119/share (25th–75th percentile: $90–$136); it trades at 27.5× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+9.2%

Rev 5y

+9.4%

Rev 10y

+13.2%

EPS 5y

+421.6%

EPS 10y

+12.0%

FCF 5y

+7.2%

FCF 10y

+11.7%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2009: $637.1M
2010: $865.4M
2011: $1.1B
2012: $1.3B
2013: $1.5B
2014: $1.6B
2015: $1.8B
2016: $2.1B
2017: $2.5B
2018: $3.0B
2019: $3.2B
2020: $3.9B
2021: $4.4B
2022: $4.7B
2023: $5.5B
2024: $5.6B
2025: $6.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Net income

2009: $87.7M
2010: $102.3M
2011: $156.3M
2012: $210.3M
2013: $314.5M
2014: $200.2M
2015: $296.7M
2016: $426.2M
2017: $248.3M
2018: $331.2M
2019: $579.8M
2020: $356.4M
2021: $1.7B
2022: $377.7M
2023: $948.8M
2024: $602.5M
2025: $1.3B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Free cash flow

2009: $283.8M
2010: $359.0M
2011: $401.0M
2012: $542.9M
2013: $656.4M
2014: $655.9M
2015: $796.8M
2016: $911.2M
2017: $1.0B
2018: $1.4B
2019: $1.5B
2020: $1.7B
2021: $1.7B
2022: $1.7B
2023: $1.6B
2024: $2.3B
2025: $2.4B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2009: 104.1M
2010: 116.3M
2011: 134.1M
2012: 156.9M
2013: 173.2M
2014: 180.7M
2015: 187.8M
2016: 203.7M
2017: 236.5M
2018: 279.5M
2019: 283.2M
2020: 283.2M
2021: 283.2M
2022: 297.9M
2023: 309.1M
2024: 331.5M
2025: 347.8M
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
09
12
15
18
21
24

Margins

20%40%091215182124
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2009: $109.8M
2010: $171.5M
2011: $261.3M
2012: $334.4M
2013: $401.0M
2014: $441.7M
2015: $468.6M
2016: $521.6M
2017: $646.4M
2018: $849.5M
2019: $921.8M
2020: $1.2B
2021: $1.4B
2022: $1.5B
2023: $1.5B
2024: $1.6B
2025: $1.7B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$2.0B$4.0B091215182124
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $1.3B
Q2'23: $1.4B
Q3'23: $1.4B
Q4'23: $1.4B
Q1'24: $1.3B
Q2'24: $1.4B
Q3'24: $1.4B
Q4'24: $1.4B
Q1'25: $1.4B
Q2'25: $1.5B
Q3'25: $1.6B
Q4'25: $1.6B
Q1'26: $1.6B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $68.7M
Q2'23: $118.2M
Q3'23: $733.6M
Q4'23: $28.3M
Q1'24: $281.5M
Q2'24: $80.2M
Q3'24: $51.2M
Q4'24: $189.6M
Q1'25: $110.0M
Q2'25: $1.0B
Q3'25: $67.8M
Q4'25: $98.6M
Q1'26: $179.3M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$1.6B+16.2%$179.3M+63.0%0.46$532.4M
Q4'25 *$1.6B+13.8%$98.6M−48.0%0.22$719.0M
Q3'25$1.6B+10.2%$67.8M+32.5%0.15$652.9M
Q2'25$1.5B+10.1%$1.0B+1186.7%2.94$641.2M
Q1'25$1.4B+5.7%$110.0M−60.9%0.27$399.1M
Q4'24 *$1.4B+4.8%$189.6M+569.6%0.50$769.5M
Q3'24$1.4B+2.1%$51.2M−93.0%0.09$566.5M
Q2'24$1.4B−0.7%$80.2M−32.1%0.20$573.2M
Q1'24$1.3B−0.6%$281.5M+309.6%0.82$352.3M
Q4'23 *$1.4B+11.1%$28.3M+625.7%0.03$462.3M
Q3'23$1.4B+17.6%$733.6M+209.4%2.31$358.4M
Q2'23$1.4B+19.9%$118.2M+86.3%0.34$464.4M
Q1'23$1.3B+18.8%$68.7M−6.2%0.20$349.7M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+9.2%+9.4%+13.2%+13.9%
Operating cash flow+13.3%+7.2%+11.7%+13.5%
Free cash flow+13.3%+7.2%+11.7%+13.5%
EPS (diluted)+47.7%+421.6%+12.0%+14.0%
Equity+9.2%+5.3%+17.7%+17.8%
LT debt
Diluted shares+5.3%+4.2%+6.4%+7.6%
Stock price+16.3%+6.4%+10.4%+12.3%

$100, 3 years ago

$157vs $176 in SPY

16.3% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$136vs $181 in SPY

6.4% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$268vs $412 in SPY

10.4% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$569vs $813 in SPY

12.3% vs 15.0%/yr

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

10.5%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.8%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.78

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

$2.4B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.6%

Share count 5y

+7.8%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 19.3% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 37.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 7.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

17 of 25 checks pass · 68%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/7

  • Revenue growth

    9.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    421.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    7.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    7.2% vs 9.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

4/6

  • Net margin

    21.4% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    10.8% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    5.7% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    10.5% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    39.5% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $2.4B vs NI $1.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $22.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    67% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    fail

Capital Allocation

1/3

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    7.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    72% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.6% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    51.2 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    12.2% vs 11.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    2.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20256,1136581,3093.582,4122,4121,7283,45222,926348
20245,5554726021.612,2612,2611,6333,87121,340332
20235,4775249492.881,6351,6351,5211,62519,118309
20224,6925903781.111,6591,6591,45114217,583298
20214,4286941,7095.941,7021,7021,37914318,005283
20203,9045583560.001,7071,7071,16310917,718283
20193,2095945801.741,5141,514922909,879283
20183,0465503310.891,3851,3858491279,859279
20172,4584512480.731,0231,023646010,349236
20162,1424974261.63911911522115,096204
20151,7634022971.15797797469574,500188
20141,6162592000.73656656442353,878181
20131,4823823141.57656656401503,611173
20121,2793662101.09543543334523,468157
20111,0633041560.98401401261412,9402,523134
20108652421020.50359359172122,8071,963116
2009637178880.45284284110721,7841,635104

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.