DIS
Walt Disney Company (The) · Communication Services · Movies & Entertainment
$110.61
52w 92.19 – 119.78
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$191.0B
P/E
14.9
P/FCF
18.4
FCF yield
5.4%
ROE
11.3%
Shldr yield
2.9%
div 1.0% + bb 1.9%
What today's price assumes
At $191.0B, the market is pricing in 6.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 1.8% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $76 · $76 · $94 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 14.7× across 9 years, DIS would trade near $154/share (25th–75th percentile: $123–$330); it trades at 10.6× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+4.5%
Rev 5y
+7.6%
Rev 10y
+7.0%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+2.3%
FCF 5y
+22.9%
FCF 10y
+1.8%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2017–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $25.2B | +6.8% | $2.6B | −49.9% | 1.51 | $4.9B |
| Q2'26 | $25.2B | +6.5% | $2.2B | −31.4% | 1.27 | $6.9B |
| Q1'26 | $26.0B | +5.2% | $2.4B | −6.0% | 1.34 | $735.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $22.5B | −0.5% | $1.3B | +185.4% | 0.72 | $4.5B |
| Q3'25 | $23.6B | +2.1% | $5.3B | +100.8% | 2.92 | $3.7B |
| Q2'25 | $23.6B | +7.0% | $3.3B | — | 1.81 | $6.8B |
| Q1'25 | $24.7B | +4.8% | $2.6B | +33.6% | 1.40 | $3.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $22.6B | +6.3% | $460.0M | +74.2% | 0.26 | $5.5B |
| Q3'24 | $23.2B | +3.7% | $2.6B | — | 1.43 | $2.6B |
| Q2'24 | $22.1B | +1.2% | −$20.0M | −101.6% | -0.01 | $3.7B |
| Q1'24 | $23.5B | +0.2% | $1.9B | +49.4% | 1.04 | $2.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $21.2B | +5.4% | $264.0M | +63.0% | 0.15 | $4.8B |
| Q3'23 | $22.3B | +3.8% | −$460.0M | −132.6% | -0.25 | $2.8B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.5% | +7.6% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +44.5% | +18.9% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +111.9% | +22.9% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +58.5% | +0.5% | — | — |
| Equity | +5.0% | +5.6% | — | — |
| LT debt | −8.0% | −7.8% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −0.3% | +0.0% | — | — |
| Stock price | +10.9% | −8.8% | +2.4% | +9.3% |
$100, 3 years ago
$136vs $176 in SPY
10.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$63vs $181 in SPY
-8.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$127vs $412 in SPY
2.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$380vs $813 in SPY
9.3% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$-0.53
−$11.5B created / $21.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
12.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
8.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.02
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.5y
SBC / FCF
13.5%
Owner earnings
$8.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.7%
Share count 5y
+1.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
43.7%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.32
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 39.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 50.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 19.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
19 of 25 checks pass · 76%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/6
- pass
Revenue growth
7.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
22.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 8 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 9 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 9 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
18.9% vs 7.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
13.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
18.6% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
11.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
12.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
10.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $18.1B vs NI $12.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
16% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.32 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$109.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
-10% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
14% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
53% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
4 of 9 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.4% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
14.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
6.6% vs 1.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 94,425 | — | 17,551 | 12,404 | 6.85 | 18,101 | 8,024 | 10,077 | 1,803 | 3,500 | 1,363 | 5,695 | 35,315 | 109,869 | 1,811 |
| 2024 | 91,361 | — | 15,601 | 4,972 | 2.72 | 13,971 | 5,412 | 8,559 | 1,366 | 2,992 | 1,366 | 6,002 | 38,970 | 100,696 | 1,831 |
| 2023 | 88,898 | — | 12,863 | 2,354 | 1.29 | 9,866 | 4,969 | 4,897 | 0 | 0 | 1,143 | 14,182 | 42,101 | 99,277 | 1,830 |
| 2022 | 82,722 | — | 12,121 | 3,145 | 1.72 | 6,002 | 4,943 | 1,059 | 0 | 0 | 977 | 11,615 | 45,299 | 95,008 | 1,827 |
| 2021 | 67,418 | — | 7,766 | 1,995 | 1.09 | 5,566 | 3,578 | 1,988 | 0 | — | 600 | 15,959 | 48,540 | 88,553 | 1,828 |
| 2020 | 65,388 | — | 8,108 | -2,864 | -1.58 | 7,616 | 4,022 | 3,594 | 1,587 | 0 | 525 | 17,914 | 52,917 | 83,583 | 1,808 |
| 2019 | 69,607 | — | 14,847 | 11,054 | 6.64 | 5,984 | 4,876 | 1,108 | 2,895 | 0 | 711 | 5,418 | 38,129 | 88,877 | 1,666 |
| 2018 | 59,434 | — | 15,689 | 12,598 | 8.36 | 14,295 | 4,465 | 9,830 | 2,515 | 3,577 | 393 | 4,150 | 17,084 | 48,773 | 1,507 |
| 2017 | 55,137 | — | 14,775 | 8,980 | 5.69 | 12,343 | 3,623 | 8,720 | 2,445 | 9,368 | 364 | 4,017 | — | — | 1,578 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.