MMarketMath

DHR

Slow growerQuality: Medium (49/100)

Danaher Corporation · Health Care · Life Sciences Tools & Services

$215.11

52w 160.93 – 242.80

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$151.2B

P/E

41.8

P/FCF

28.7

FCF yield

3.5%

ROE

6.9%

Shldr yield

2.6%

div 0.6% + bb 2.0%

What today's price assumes

At $151.2B, the market is pricing in 12.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.8% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $114 · $121 · $151 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 14.1× across 19 years, DHR would trade near $129/share (25th–75th percentile: $55–$208); it trades at 23.6× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

−2.7%

Rev 5y

+2.0%

Rev 10y

+5.5%

EPS 5y

+0.6%

EPS 10y

+0.6%

FCF 5y

−0.6%

FCF 10y

+4.8%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $11.0B
2008: $12.7B
2009: $10.5B
2010: $12.6B
2011: $16.1B
2012: $18.3B
2013: $18.3B
2014: $12.9B
2015: $14.4B
2016: $16.9B
2017: $15.5B
2018: $17.0B
2019: $17.9B
2020: $22.3B
2021: $24.8B
2022: $26.6B
2023: $23.9B
2024: $23.9B
2025: $24.6B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $1.4B
2008: $1.3B
2009: $1.2B
2010: $1.8B
2011: $2.2B
2012: $2.4B
2013: $2.7B
2014: $2.6B
2015: $3.4B
2016: $2.6B
2017: $2.5B
2018: $2.7B
2019: $3.0B
2020: $3.6B
2021: $6.4B
2022: $7.2B
2023: $4.8B
2024: $3.9B
2025: $3.6B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $1.5B
2008: $1.7B
2009: $1.6B
2010: $1.9B
2011: $2.3B
2012: $3.0B
2013: $3.0B
2014: $3.3B
2015: $3.3B
2016: $2.9B
2017: $2.9B
2018: $3.4B
2019: $3.3B
2020: $5.4B
2021: $7.1B
2022: $7.4B
2023: $5.8B
2024: $5.3B
2025: $5.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 671.7M
2008: 671.7M
2009: 671.5M
2010: 683.3M
2011: 701.2M
2012: 713.1M
2013: 711.0M
2014: 716.1M
2015: 708.5M
2016: 699.8M
2017: 706.1M
2018: 710.2M
2019: 725.5M
2020: 718.7M
2021: 736.8M
2022: 737.1M
2023: 743.1M
2024: 737.2M
2025: 716.1M
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

20%40%60%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $151.8M
2008: $112.4M
2009: $41.7M
2010: $52.2M
2011: $61.3M
2012: $734.8M
2013: $52.1M
2014: $227.7M
2015: $354.1M
2016: $399.8M
2017: $378.3M
2018: $433.0M
2019: $527.0M
2020: $615.0M
2021: $742.0M
2022: $818.0M
2023: $821.0M
2024: $6.7B
2025: $4.0B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$10.0B$20.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $5.9B
Q3'23: $5.6B
Q4'23: $6.4B
Q1'24: $5.8B
Q2'24: $5.7B
Q3'24: $5.8B
Q4'24: $6.5B
Q1'25: $5.7B
Q2'25: $5.9B
Q3'25: $6.1B
Q4'25: $6.8B
Q1'26: $6.0B
Q2'26: $6.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.1B
Q3'23: $1.1B
Q4'23: $1.1B
Q1'24: $1.1B
Q2'24: $907.0M
Q3'24: $818.0M
Q4'24: $1.1B
Q1'25: $954.0M
Q2'25: $555.0M
Q3'25: $908.0M
Q4'25: $1.2B
Q1'26: $1.0B
Q2'26: $870.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$6.3B+5.5%$870.0M+56.8%1.23$1.5B
Q1'26$6.0B+3.7%$1.0B+7.9%1.45$1.3B
Q4'25 *$6.8B+4.6%$1.2B+10.2%1.69$2.1B
Q3'25$6.1B+4.4%$908.0M+11.0%1.27$1.7B
Q2'25$5.9B+3.4%$555.0M−38.8%0.77$1.3B
Q1'25$5.7B−0.9%$954.0M−12.3%1.32$1.3B
Q4'24 *$6.5B+2.1%$1.1B+0.6%1.50$2.0B
Q3'24$5.8B+3.1%$818.0M−27.5%1.12$1.5B
Q2'24$5.7B−2.9%$907.0M−18.0%1.22$1.4B
Q1'24$5.8B−2.6%$1.1B−25.0%1.45$1.7B
Q4'23$6.4B−10.2%$1.1B−51.2%1.45$1.6B
Q3'23$5.6B−12.9%$1.1B−28.2%1.51$1.7B
Q2'23$5.9B−9.4%$1.1B−34.2%1.49$1.9B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue−2.7%+2.0%+5.5%+4.6%
Operating cash flow−9.0%+0.7%+5.4%+7.8%
Free cash flow−10.8%−0.6%+4.8%+7.0%
EPS (diluted)−19.4%+0.6%+0.6%+4.4%
Equity+1.6%+5.7%+8.3%+9.4%
LT debt−1.2%−2.8%+4.4%+13.4%
Diluted shares−1.0%−0.1%+0.1%+0.3%
Stock price−2.3%−5.2%+12.1%+17.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$93vs $176 in SPY

-2.3% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$77vs $181 in SPY

-5.2% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$314vs $412 in SPY

12.1% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,166vs $813 in SPY

17.8% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$0.39

$8.5B created / $21.9B retained

Last 10 years

$3.86

$131.0B created / $33.9B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

9.0%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

3.9%

MC vs 10× OCF

2.36

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

3.5y

SBC / FCF

5.7%

Owner earnings

$5.0B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.3%

Share count 5y

+0.4%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

22.5%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.99

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 30.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 1.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 0.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

15 of 27 checks pass · 56%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

2/7

  • Revenue growth

    2.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • EPS growth

    0.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • FCF growth

    -0.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    0.7% vs 2.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

5/7

  • Net margin

    14.7% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    19.1% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    59.1% vs 60.8% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    6.9% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    9.0% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    21.4% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $6.4B vs NI $3.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    3.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail
  • Cash cushion

    25% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    0.35 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $52.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    6% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    6% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    75% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    2 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    3.5% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    41.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    12.6% vs 4.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    2.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202524,56814,5234,6903,6145.056,4161,1565,2608783,0882984,61518,41652,534716
202423,87514,2064,8633,8995.296,6881,3925,2967685,9792882,07815,50049,543737
202323,89014,0345,2024,7646.387,1641,3835,78182103065,86416,70753,486743
202226,64316,1887,5367,2099.668,5191,1187,40181802955,99519,08650,082737
202124,80215,2396,3776,4338.618,3581,2407,1187421842,58622,16845,167737
202022,28412,4754,2313,6464.896,2087915,4176151876,03521,19339,766719
201917,9119,9843,2693,0084.053,9526363,31652715919,91221,51730,271726
201817,0499,5053,0552,6513.744,0225843,4384331387889,68928,214710
201715,5198,5712,5722,4923.533,4785712,90737812763010,32726,358706
201616,8829,3352,7352,5543.653,5225902,9324001309649,67423,003700
201514,4347,7712,1623,3574.743,8025133,28935410479112,02523,690709
201412,8676,8502,0452,5983.633,7584653,2932280853,0063,40223,378716
201318,2839,3423,1212,6953.803,5855383,0475201103,1153,43722,385711
201218,2609,4143,1652,3923.363,4154582,957866481101,6795,28819,017713
201116,0918,1772,6172,1723.112,6263352,292610965375,20716,905701
201012,5506,4052,0501,7932.642,0841911,89352881,6332,78413,711683
200910,5175,0701,4401,1521.731,8011751,625420871,7222,88911,630671
200812,6975,9401,8691,3181.981,8591941,6653874863932,5539,809672
200711,0261,7411,3702.061,6461621,4843411773239672

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.