DE
Deere & Company · Industrials · Agricultural & Farm Machinery
$648.64
52w 433.00 – 674.19
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$175.1B
P/E
34.8
P/FCF
28.7
FCF yield
3.5%
ROE
19.4%
Shldr yield
1.6%
div 1.0% + bb 0.7%
What today's price assumes
At $175.1B, the market is pricing in 12.6% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 7.1% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $344 · $433 · $540 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 10.9× across 19 years, DE would trade near $301/share (25th–75th percentile: $225–$431); it trades at 23.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−4.6%
Rev 5y
+5.2%
Rev 10y
+4.7%
EPS 5y
+16.3%
EPS 10y
+12.4%
FCF 5y
−1.8%
FCF 10y
+7.1%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $13.4B | +4.7% | $1.8B | −1.7% | 6.55 | $1.9B |
| Q1'26 | $9.6B | +13.0% | $656.0M | −24.5% | 2.42 | −$890.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $12.4B | +11.2% | $1.1B | −14.5% | 3.92 | $4.0B |
| Q3'25 | $12.0B | −8.6% | $1.3B | −25.7% | 4.75 | $2.9B |
| Q2'25 | $12.8B | −16.2% | $1.8B | −23.9% | 6.64 | $1.7B |
| Q1'25 | $8.5B | −30.2% | $869.0M | −50.4% | 3.19 | −$1.1B |
| Q4'24 * | $11.1B | −27.7% | $1.2B | −47.4% | 4.57 | $5.1B |
| Q3'24 | $13.2B | −16.8% | $1.7B | −41.8% | 6.29 | $3.2B |
| Q2'24 | $15.2B | −12.4% | $2.4B | −17.1% | 8.53 | $1.9B |
| Q1'24 | $12.2B | −3.7% | $1.8B | −10.6% | 6.23 | −$908.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $15.4B | −0.8% | $2.4B | +5.5% | 8.23 | $5.7B |
| Q3'23 | $15.8B | +12.0% | $3.0B | +58.1% | 10.20 | $3.0B |
| Q2'23 | $17.4B | +30.0% | $2.9B | +36.3% | 9.65 | $1.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −4.6% | +5.2% | +4.7% | +3.8% |
| Operating cash flow | +16.7% | −0.1% | +7.1% | +8.2% |
| Free cash flow | +19.6% | −1.8% | +7.1% | +9.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | −7.4% | +16.3% | +12.4% | +10.1% |
| Equity | +8.6% | +14.9% | +14.4% | +9.9% |
| LT debt | +6.5% | +4.4% | +6.8% | — |
| Diluted shares | −3.9% | −3.0% | −2.1% | −3.0% |
| Stock price | +18.0% | +12.9% | +24.5% | +17.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$164vs $176 in SPY
18.0% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$183vs $181 in SPY
12.9% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$898vs $412 in SPY
24.5% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,067vs $813 in SPY
17.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$1.70
$48.1B created / $28.3B retained
Last 10 years
$2.85
$102.7B created / $36.1B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
28.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.5%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.34
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
—
SBC / FCF
2.5%
Owner earnings
$5.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
3.4%
Share count 5y
−2.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Checklist
18 of 24 checks pass · 75%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- pass
Revenue growth
5.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
16.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-1.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-0.1% vs 5.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
11.0% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
19.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
28.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
13.4% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $7.5B vs NI $5.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
no debt · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
— · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
— · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$25.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
47% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- pass
FCF yield
3.5% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
34.8 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
12.6% vs 7.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45,684 | — | — | 5,027 | 18.50 | 7,459 | 1,360 | 6,099 | 1,720 | 1,138 | 151 | 8,276 | — | 25,950 | 272 |
| 2024 | 51,716 | — | 9,039 | 7,100 | 25.62 | 9,231 | 1,640 | 7,591 | 1,605 | 4,007 | 208 | 7,324 | — | 22,836 | 277 |
| 2023 | 61,251 | — | 12,958 | 10,166 | 34.63 | 8,589 | 1,498 | 7,091 | 1,427 | 7,216 | 130 | 7,458 | — | 21,785 | 294 |
| 2022 | 52,577 | — | 9,508 | 7,131 | 23.28 | 4,699 | 1,134 | 3,565 | 1,313 | 3,597 | 85 | 4,774 | — | 20,262 | 306 |
| 2021 | 44,024 | — | 8,012 | 5,963 | 18.99 | 7,726 | 848 | 6,878 | 1,040 | 2,538 | 82 | 8,017 | 32,888 | 18,431 | 314 |
| 2020 | 35,540 | — | 4,305 | 2,751 | 8.69 | 7,483 | 820 | 6,663 | 956 | 750 | 81 | 7,066 | 32,734 | 12,937 | 317 |
| 2019 | 39,258 | — | 4,415 | 3,253 | 10.15 | 3,412 | 1,120 | 2,292 | 943 | 1,253 | 82 | 3,857 | 30,229 | 11,413 | 321 |
| 2018 | 37,358 | — | 4,476 | 2,368 | 7.24 | 1,822 | 896 | 926 | 806 | 958 | 84 | 3,904 | 27,237 | 11,288 | 327 |
| 2017 | 29,738 | — | 3,574 | 2,159 | 6.68 | 2,196 | 595 | 1,601 | 764 | 6 | 68 | 9,335 | 25,891 | 9,557 | 323 |
| 2016 | 26,644 | — | 2,589 | 1,524 | 4.81 | 3,764 | 644 | 3,120 | 761 | 205 | 71 | 4,336 | — | 6,520 | 317 |
| 2015 | 28,863 | — | 3,140 | 1,940 | 5.77 | 3,759 | 694 | 3,065 | 816 | 2,771 | 66 | 4,162 | — | 6,758 | 336 |
| 2014 | 36,067 | — | 5,218 | 3,162 | 8.63 | 3,526 | 1,048 | 2,478 | 786 | 2,731 | 79 | 3,787 | 24,381 | 9,063 | 366 |
| 2013 | 37,795 | — | 5,928 | 3,537 | 9.09 | 3,254 | 1,158 | 2,096 | 753 | 1,531 | 81 | 3,504 | 21,578 | 10,266 | 389 |
| 2012 | 36,157 | — | 5,109 | 3,065 | 7.63 | 1,168 | 1,319 | -152 | 698 | 1,588 | 75 | 4,652 | 22,453 | 6,842 | 402 |
| 2011 | 32,013 | — | 4,564 | 2,800 | 6.63 | 2,326 | 1,057 | 1,270 | 593 | 1,667 | 69 | 3,647 | 16,960 | 6,800 | 422 |
| 2010 | 26,005 | — | 3,408 | 1,865 | 4.35 | 2,282 | 762 | 1,521 | 484 | 359 | 71 | 3,791 | 16,815 | 6,290 | 429 |
| 2009 | 23,112 | — | 1,607 | 874 | 2.06 | 1,985 | 907 | 1,078 | 473 | 3 | 71 | 4,652 | 17,392 | 4,819 | 424 |
| 2008 | 28,438 | — | 3,420 | 2,053 | 4.70 | 1,949 | 1,112 | 837 | 448 | 1,678 | 71 | 2,211 | 13,899 | 6,533 | 436 |
| 2007 | 24,082 | — | — | 1,822 | 4.00 | 2,759 | 1,023 | 1,737 | 387 | 1,518 | 82 | 2,279 | — | 7,156 | 455 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.