MMarketMath

D

Slow growerQuality: Medium (50/100)2 red flags

Dominion Energy · Utilities · Multi-Utilities

$62.45

52w 55.85 – 72.99

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$54.9B

P/E

18.0

P/FCF

10.1

FCF yield

9.9%

ROE

10.3%

Shldr yield

4.2%

div 4.2% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $54.9B, the market is pricing in -1.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 0.5% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $72 · $72 · $90 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 7.4× across 18 years, D would trade near $45/share (25th–75th percentile: $33–$55); it trades at 10.2× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+4.3%

Rev 5y

+3.7%

Rev 10y

+3.5%

EPS 5y

—

EPS 10y

+0.8%

FCF 5y

+0.5%

FCF 10y

—

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $14.8B
2008: $15.9B
2009: $14.8B
2010: $15.2B
2011: $13.8B
2012: $12.8B
2013: $13.1B
2014: $12.4B
2015: $11.7B
2016: $11.7B
2017: $12.6B
2018: $10.9B
2019: $13.7B
2020: $13.8B
2021: $11.7B
2022: $14.6B
2023: $13.5B
2024: $14.2B
2025: $16.5B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $2.5B
2008: $1.8B
2009: $1.3B
2010: $2.8B
2011: $1.4B
2012: $302.0M
2013: $1.7B
2014: $1.3B
2015: $1.9B
2016: $2.1B
2017: $3.0B
2018: $2.4B
2019: $1.4B
2020: −$401.0M
2021: $3.4B
2022: $1.2B
2023: $2.0B
2024: $2.0B
2025: $3.0B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: −$2.4B
2008: −$639.0M
2009: −$51.0M
2010: −$1.6B
2011: −$669.0M
2012: −$8.0M
2013: −$632.0M
2014: −$1.9B
2015: −$1.1B
2016: −$1.9B
2017: −$1.0B
2018: $519.0M
2019: $224.0M
2020: $5.2B
2021: $4.0B
2022: $3.7B
2023: $6.6B
2024: $5.0B
2025: $5.4B
$0$2.5B$5.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 580.8M
2009: 593.7M
2010: 590.1M
2011: 574.6M
2012: 573.9M
2013: 579.5M
2014: 584.5M
2015: 593.7M
2016: 617.1M
2017: 636.0M
2018: 654.9M
2019: 808.9M
2020: 831.0M
2021: 808.5M
2022: 824.8M
2023: 836.5M
2024: 839.4M
2025: 855.3M
0250.0M500.0M750.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-20%0%20%40%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $6.7B
2008: $916.0M
2009: $1.0B
2010: $2.0B
2011: $1.7B
2012: $1.2B
2013: $1.3B
2014: $1.4B
2015: $1.5B
2016: $1.7B
2017: $1.9B
2018: $2.2B
2019: $3.0B
2020: $6.0B
2021: $2.0B
2022: $2.2B
2023: $2.2B
2024: $2.2B
2025: $2.3B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$20.0B$40.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $3.5B
Q2'23: $3.1B
Q3'23: $3.8B
Q4'23: $3.5B
Q1'24: $3.5B
Q2'24: $3.5B
Q3'24: $3.8B
Q4'24: $3.4B
Q1'25: $4.1B
Q2'25: $3.7B
Q3'25: $4.5B
Q4'25: $4.1B
Q1'26: $5.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $972.0M
Q2'23: $575.0M
Q3'23: $153.0M
Q4'23: $331.0M
Q1'24: $403.0M
Q2'24: $563.0M
Q3'24: $934.0M
Q4'24: $134.0M
Q1'25: $665.0M
Q2'25: $760.0M
Q3'25: $1.0B
Q4'25: $567.0M
Q1'26: $621.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$5.1B+24.6%$621.0M−6.6%0.69$882.0M
Q4'25$4.1B+20.4%$567.0M+323.1%0.65$987.0M
Q3'25$4.5B+19.2%$1.0B+7.7%1.16$1.9B
Q2'25$3.7B+7.6%$760.0M+35.0%0.88$1.2B
Q1'25$4.1B+15.9%$665.0M+65.0%0.77$1.2B
Q4'24$3.4B−3.8%$134.0M−59.5%0.14$641.0M
Q3'24$3.8B+0.7%$934.0M+510.5%1.09$1.5B
Q2'24$3.5B+12.2%$563.0M−2.1%0.64$856.0M
Q1'24$3.5B+2.1%$403.0M−58.5%0.46$2.0B
Q4'23$3.5B−7.2%$331.0M−3.8%0.37$1.4B
Q3'23$3.8B−11.3%$153.0M−79.2%0.16$2.0B
Q2'23$3.1B−18.8%$575.0M—0.66$1.1B
Q1'23$3.5B−24.1%$972.0M+41.1%1.14$2.1B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+4.3%+3.7%+3.5%+0.6%
Operating cash flow+13.2%+0.5%+1.8%+7.4%
Free cash flow+13.2%+0.5%——
EPS (diluted)+37.4%+13.4%+0.8%−2.1%
Equity+1.7%+2.2%+8.7%+6.1%
LT debt+3.4%+6.4%+7.0%+7.5%
Diluted shares+1.2%+0.6%+3.7%+2.5%
Stock price+20.9%+0.4%+2.4%+5.5%

$100, 3 years ago

$177vs $192 in SPY

20.9% vs 24.4%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$102vs $181 in SPY

0.4% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$127vs $428 in SPY

2.4% vs 15.6%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$223vs $803 in SPY

5.5% vs 14.9%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$4.73

$2.8B created / $589.0M retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

7.1%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

5.4%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.01

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

8.6y

SBC / FCF

0.9%

Owner earnings

$5.3B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

9.8%

Share count 5y

+2.3%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

477.9%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$7.62

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 61.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 0.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 0.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

13 of 24 checks pass · 54%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

2/6

  • Revenue growth

    3.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • EPS growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • FCF growth

    0.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail

  • FCF consistently positive

    8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    0.5% vs 3.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

4/6

  • Net margin

    18.1% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    26.7% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    10.3% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    7.1% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • FCF margin

    32.4% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.4B vs NI $3.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

1/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    8.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    1% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    1.59 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $29.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    — · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

2/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    2.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail

  • Stock comp restrained

    1% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    42% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    1 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    9.9% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    18.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    -1.7% vs 0.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    4.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy debt load

Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202516,523—4,4142,9983.455,361—5,3612,278—4625046,33229,083855
202414,182—3,2472,0342.335,018—5,0182,239—5331039,32026,863839
202313,487—3,4141,9622.256,572—6,5722,233—4418440,20627,567837
202214,552—1,4471,1911.333,700—3,7002,209—3611941,87227,659825
202111,661—1,9963,3994.124,037—4,0372,036—4228337,42627,308809
202013,752—2,055-401-0.575,227—5,2272,8733,0806417233,95726,117831
201913,745—1,5441,3581.625,2044,9802242,983—4613528,99831,994809
201810,891—3,0132,4473.744,7734,2545192,185—4826831,14420,107655
201712,586—3,9372,9994.724,5025,504-1,0021,931—4512030,94817,142636
201611,737—3,4482,1233.444,1516,085-1,9341,727—3326130,23114,605617
201511,683—3,5361,8993.204,4755,575-1,1001,536—3960723,46812,664594
201412,436—2,7211,3102.243,4395,345-1,9061,398—3931821,80511,555585
201313,120—3,3161,6972.933,4334,065-6321,30203131619,33011,642580
201212,835—2,8583020.534,1374,145-81,20902524816,85110,568574
201113,765—2,8611,4082.452,9833,652-6691,1296013910217,39411,446575
201015,197—5,7002,8084.761,8253,422-1,5971,076900406215,75811,997590
200914,798—2,5691,2872.173,7863,837-511,0390—5015,48111,185594
200815,895—3,4841,8343.162,6763,315-6399160—7114,95610,077581
200714,816—5,5692,5393.88-2302,177-2,4079315,768———9,435—

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗