CVX
Chevron Corporation · Energy · Integrated Oil & Gas
$203.09
52w 146.49 – 214.71
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$401.3B
P/E
32.6
P/FCF
24.2
FCF yield
4.1%
ROE
6.6%
Shldr yield
6.2%
div 3.2% + bb 3.0%
What today's price assumes
At $401.3B, the market is pricing in 10.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 58.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $128 · $287 · $414 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 5.5× across 18 years, CVX would trade near $94/share (25th–75th percentile: $63–$135); it trades at 11.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
−7.9%
Rev 5y
+14.3%
Rev 10y
+2.9%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+10.5%
FCF 5y
+58.6%
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $67.2B | +51.4% | $12.1B | +384.8% | 6.11 | $22.6B |
| Q1'26 | $47.6B | +3.2% | $2.2B | −36.9% | 1.11 | $2.5B |
| Q4'25 * | $45.8B | −5.3% | $2.8B | −14.5% | 1.36 | $10.8B |
| Q3'25 | $48.2B | −1.5% | $3.5B | −21.1% | 1.82 | $9.4B |
| Q2'25 | $44.4B | −10.5% | $2.5B | −43.8% | 1.45 | $8.6B |
| Q1'25 | $46.1B | −1.0% | $3.5B | −36.4% | 2.00 | $5.2B |
| Q4'24 * | $48.3B | −1.2% | $3.2B | +43.4% | 1.84 | $8.7B |
| Q3'24 | $48.9B | −5.8% | $4.5B | −31.2% | 2.48 | $9.7B |
| Q2'24 | $49.6B | +5.0% | $4.4B | −26.2% | 2.43 | $6.3B |
| Q1'24 | $46.6B | −4.6% | $5.5B | −16.3% | 2.97 | $6.8B |
| Q4'23 * | $48.9B | −10.3% | $2.3B | −64.4% | 1.22 | $12.4B |
| Q3'23 | $51.9B | −18.2% | $6.5B | −41.9% | 3.48 | $9.7B |
| Q2'23 | $47.2B | −27.8% | $6.0B | −48.3% | 3.20 | $6.3B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | −7.9% | +14.3% | +2.9% | −0.7% |
| Operating cash flow | −11.9% | +26.3% | +5.7% | +0.5% |
| Free cash flow | −23.9% | +58.6% | +5.9% | +2.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | −28.7% | +27.5% | +10.5% | −2.4% |
| Equity | +5.4% | +7.2% | +2.0% | +3.9% |
| LT debt | +23.0% | +9.2% | +1.7% | +8.9% |
| Diluted shares | −1.5% | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.5% |
| Stock price | +12.3% | +20.5% | +11.8% | +9.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$142vs $176 in SPY
12.3% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$254vs $181 in SPY
20.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$305vs $412 in SPY
11.8% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$374vs $813 in SPY
9.2% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.31
$195.8B created / $45.4B retained
Last 10 years
$9.49
$218.5B created / $23.0B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
15.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
7.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.18
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.4y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$16.6B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
4.1%
Share count 5y
−0.6%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 37.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 34.8% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 13.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 22 checks pass · 73%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
5/6
- pass
Revenue growth
14.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
58.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
4 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
26.3% vs 14.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/5
- fail
Net margin
6.7% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
6.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
15.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
9.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $33.9B vs NI $12.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
18% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.21 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$186.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-0.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
150% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.1% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
32.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
10.3% vs 58.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
6.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Revenue declining
Latest fiscal-year revenue fell more than 3% versus the prior year.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 184,432 | — | — | 12,299 | 6.63 | 33,939 | 17,347 | 16,592 | 12,751 | 12,079 | — | 7,285 | 39,781 | 186,450 | 1,856 |
| 2024 | 193,414 | — | — | 17,661 | 9.72 | 31,492 | 16,448 | 15,044 | 11,801 | 15,229 | — | 8,262 | 20,135 | 152,318 | 1,817 |
| 2023 | 196,913 | — | — | 21,369 | 11.36 | 35,609 | 15,829 | 19,780 | 11,336 | 14,939 | — | 8,178 | 20,307 | 160,957 | 1,880 |
| 2022 | 235,717 | — | — | 35,465 | 18.28 | 49,602 | 11,974 | 37,628 | 10,968 | 11,255 | — | 17,678 | 21,375 | 159,282 | 1,940 |
| 2021 | 155,606 | — | — | 15,625 | 8.14 | 29,187 | 8,056 | 21,131 | 10,179 | 1,383 | — | 5,640 | 25,676 | 139,067 | 1,920 |
| 2020 | 94,471 | — | — | -5,543 | -2.96 | 10,577 | 8,922 | 1,655 | 9,651 | 1,757 | — | 5,596 | 25,676 | 131,688 | 1,870 |
| 2019 | 139,865 | — | — | 2,924 | 1.54 | 27,314 | 14,116 | 13,198 | 8,959 | 4,039 | — | 6,911 | 18,730 | 144,213 | 1,895 |
| 2018 | 158,902 | — | — | 14,824 | 7.74 | 30,618 | 13,792 | 16,826 | 8,502 | 1,751 | — | 9,342 | 23,730 | 154,554 | 1,914 |
| 2017 | 141,722 | — | — | 9,195 | 4.85 | 20,338 | 13,404 | 6,934 | 8,132 | 1 | — | 4,813 | 33,477 | 148,124 | 1,898 |
| 2016 | 114,472 | — | — | -497 | -0.27 | 12,690 | 18,109 | -5,419 | 8,032 | 2 | — | 6,988 | 35,193 | 145,556 | 1,873 |
| 2015 | 138,477 | — | — | 4,587 | 2.45 | 19,456 | 29,504 | -10,048 | 7,992 | 2 | — | 11,022 | 33,542 | 152,716 | 1,875 |
| 2014 | 211,970 | — | — | 19,241 | 10.14 | 31,475 | 35,407 | -3,932 | 7,928 | 5,006 | — | 12,785 | 23,960 | 155,028 | 1,898 |
| 2013 | 228,848 | — | — | 21,423 | 11.09 | 35,002 | 37,985 | -2,983 | 7,474 | 5,004 | — | 16,245 | 19,960 | 149,113 | 1,932 |
| 2012 | 241,909 | — | — | 26,179 | 13.32 | 38,812 | 30,938 | 7,874 | 6,844 | 5,004 | — | 20,939 | 11,966 | 136,524 | 1,965 |
| 2011 | 253,706 | — | — | 26,895 | 13.44 | 41,095 | 26,500 | 14,595 | 6,136 | 4,262 | — | 15,864 | 9,684 | 121,382 | 2,001 |
| 2010 | 204,928 | — | — | 19,024 | 9.48 | 31,354 | 19,612 | 11,742 | 5,669 | 775 | — | 14,060 | 11,003 | 105,081 | 2,007 |
| 2009 | 171,636 | — | — | 10,483 | 5.24 | 19,373 | 19,843 | -470 | 5,302 | — | — | 8,716 | 9,829 | 91,914 | 2,001 |
| 2008 | 273,005 | — | — | 23,931 | 11.67 | 29,632 | 19,666 | 9,966 | 5,162 | — | — | 9,347 | 5,742 | 86,648 | 2,050 |
| 2007 | 220,904 | — | — | 18,688 | 8.77 | 24,977 | 16,678 | 8,299 | 4,791 | — | — | 7,362 | — | 77,088 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.