MMarketMath

CTAS

StalwartQuality: High (92/100)

Cintas · Industrials · Diversified Support Services

$207.40

52w 161.16 – 219.17

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$83.0B

P/E

45.0

P/FCF

46.4

FCF yield

2.2%

ROE

38.7%

Shldr yield

1.9%

div 0.8% + bb 1.1%

What today's price assumes

At $83.0B, the market is pricing in 19.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 17.1% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $67 · $150 · $216 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 19.7× across 16 years, CTAS would trade near $107/share (25th–75th percentile: $61–$137); it trades at 38.3× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+9.6%

Rev 5y

+7.9%

Rev 10y

+9.0%

EPS 5y

+16.3%

EPS 10y

+16.9%

FCF 5y

+10.6%

FCF 10y

+17.1%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2009–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2009: $3.8B
2010: $3.5B
2011: $3.8B
2012: $4.1B
2013: $4.2B
2014: $4.2B
2015: $4.4B
2016: $4.8B
2017: $5.3B
2018: $6.5B
2019: $6.9B
2020: $7.1B
2021: $7.1B
2022: $7.9B
2023: $8.8B
2024: $9.6B
2025: $10.3B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Net income

2009: $226.4M
2010: $215.6M
2011: $247.0M
2012: $297.6M
2013: $315.4M
2014: $374.4M
2015: $430.6M
2016: $693.5M
2017: $480.7M
2018: $842.6M
2019: $885.0M
2020: $876.0M
2021: $1.1B
2022: $1.2B
2023: $1.3B
2024: $1.6B
2025: $1.8B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Free cash flow

2009: $363.4M
2010: $454.6M
2011: $158.3M
2012: $309.1M
2013: $356.3M
2014: $460.4M
2015: $362.6M
2016: $190.5M
2017: $490.6M
2018: $692.5M
2019: $791.1M
2020: $1.1B
2021: $1.2B
2022: $1.3B
2023: $1.3B
2024: $1.7B
2025: $1.8B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2010: 599.0M
2011: 574.4M
2012: 509.6M
2013: 488.0M
2014: 476.7M
2015: 460.6M
2016: 430.9M
2017: 422.4M
2018: 430.3M
2019: 429.1M
2020: 419.3M
2021: 422.1M
2022: 413.5M
2023: 413.5M
2024: 413.5M
2025: 410.3M
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
09
12
15
18
21
24

Margins

20%40%091215182124
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2009: $98.1M
2010: $74.9M
2011: $515.5M
2012: $463.1M
2013: $295.4M
2014: $463.9M
2015: $753.9M
2016: $895.4M
2017: $163.2M
2018: $302.9M
2019: $1.2B
2020: $732.5M
2021: $1.0B
2022: $1.9B
2023: $848.8M
2024: $1.2B
2025: $1.5B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$1.0B$2.0B091215182124
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q3'23: $2.2B
Q4'23: $2.3B
Q1'24: $2.3B
Q2'24: $2.4B
Q3'24: $2.4B
Q4'24: $2.5B
Q1'25: $2.5B
Q2'25: $2.6B
Q3'25: $2.6B
Q4'25: $2.7B
Q1'26: $2.7B
Q2'26: $2.8B
Q3'26: $2.8B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
24
25
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q3'23: $325.8M
Q4'23: $346.2M
Q1'24: $385.1M
Q2'24: $374.6M
Q3'24: $397.6M
Q4'24: $414.3M
Q1'25: $452.0M
Q2'25: $448.5M
Q3'25: $463.5M
Q4'25: $448.3M
Q1'26: $491.1M
Q2'26: $495.3M
Q3'26: $502.5M
$0$200.0M$400.0M
23
24
25
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q3'26$2.8B+8.9%$502.5M+8.4%1.24$621.5M
Q2'26$2.8B+9.3%$495.3M+10.4%1.21$531.2M
Q1'26$2.7B+8.7%$491.1M+8.7%1.20$414.5M
Q4'25 *$2.7B+8.0%$448.3M+8.2%1.08$640.3M
Q3'25$2.6B+8.4%$463.5M+16.6%1.13$620.5M
Q2'25$2.6B+7.8%$448.5M+19.7%1.09$444.7M
Q1'25$2.5B+6.8%$452.0M+17.4%1.10$460.4M
Q4'24 *$2.5B+8.2%$414.3M+19.7%1.00$681.8M
Q3'24$2.4B+9.9%$397.6M+22.0%0.96$657.1M
Q2'24$2.4B+9.3%$374.6M+15.5%0.90$392.7M
Q1'24$2.3B+8.1%$385.1M+9.5%0.93$336.9M
Q4'23 *$2.3B+10.1%$346.2M+17.6%-6.40$542.0M
Q3'23$2.2B+11.7%$325.8M+3.3%3.14$425.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+9.6%+7.9%+9.0%+7.4%
Operating cash flow+12.1%+10.9%+14.1%+9.4%
Free cash flow+10.6%+10.6%+17.1%+9.4%
EPS (diluted)+14.0%+16.3%+16.9%+18.2%
Equity+12.3%+7.7%+9.3%+4.2%
LT debt−0.8%−0.9%+6.4%+7.8%
Diluted shares−0.3%−0.4%−1.2%−2.5%
Stock price+19.0%+17.0%+22.9%+25.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$168vs $176 in SPY

19.0% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$219vs $181 in SPY

17.0% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$785vs $412 in SPY

22.9% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$3,136vs $813 in SPY

25.8% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$13.80

$64.3B created / $4.7B retained

Last 10 years

$10.90

$81.9B created / $7.5B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

30.5%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

2.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

3.76

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.4y

SBC / FCF

7.3%

Owner earnings

$1.6B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

2.0%

Share count 5y

−2.5%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

16.0%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.08

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 13.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 71.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

22 of 27 checks pass · 81%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    7.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    16.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    10.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    10.9% vs 7.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    17.5% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    22.8% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    50.0% vs 46.2% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    38.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    30.5% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    17.0% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $2.2B vs NI $1.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    11% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    0.52 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $4.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -2.5% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    88% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

0/4

  • FCF yield

    2.2% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    45.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    19.2% vs 17.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    1.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202510,3405,1742,3601,8124.402,1664091,7576129351282642,4254,684410
20249,5974,6862,0691,5723.792,0694091,6595317001173422,0264,316413
20238,8164,1731,8031,3483.251,5863311,2554503991041242,4863,864414
20227,8543,6321,5871,2362.971,5382411,2973751,526109902,4843,308414
20217,1163,3151,3851,1112.611,3611431,2174515541124941,6433,688422
20207,0853,2341,1638762.071,2912301,0612684651151452,5403,235419
20196,8923,1291,1348852.041,0682777912211,016139972,5383,003429
20186,4772,9099508431.939642726921761271131392,5353,017430
20175,3232,3807744811.1276427349114221891692,7712,303422
20164,7962,1017696941.58466275190115780791391,0441,843431
20154,3701,8936844310.93580218363202552474171,3001,932461
20144,1941,7506033740.7860614646093371305131,3002,193477
20134,2461,7535663150.6455319635680216233521,3012,201488
20124,1021,7395402980.5847016130971392203401,0592,139510
20113,8101,6094402470.4334118315872444154381,2852,303574
20103,5471,4983912160.36566111455741154117852,534599
20093,7754092260.385241603637226121302,367

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.