CSCO
Cisco · Information Technology · Communications Equipment
$115.34
52w 66.81 – 130.37
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$454.7B
P/E
34.1
P/FCF
35.5
FCF yield
2.8%
ROE
26.4%
Shldr yield
2.8%
div 1.4% + bb 1.3%
What today's price assumes
At $454.7B, the market is pricing in 15.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 0.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $38 · $38 · $47 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 9.0× across 19 years, CSCO would trade near $32/share (25th–75th percentile: $27–$47); it trades at 32.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+3.6%
Rev 5y
+4.9%
Rev 10y
+2.5%
EPS 5y
+5.9%
EPS 10y
+4.7%
FCF 5y
−2.9%
FCF 10y
+0.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 * | $17.3B | +17.6% | $3.9B | +51.3% | 0.96 | $5.4B |
| Q3'26 | $15.8B | +12.0% | $3.4B | +35.4% | 0.85 | $3.8B |
| Q2'26 | $15.3B | +9.7% | $3.2B | +30.8% | 0.80 | $1.8B |
| Q1'26 | $14.9B | +7.5% | $2.9B | +5.5% | 0.72 | $3.2B |
| Q4'25 * | $14.7B | +7.6% | $2.5B | +17.9% | 0.64 | $4.2B |
| Q3'25 | $14.1B | +11.4% | $2.5B | +32.1% | 0.62 | $4.1B |
| Q2'25 | $14.0B | +9.4% | $2.4B | −7.8% | 0.61 | $2.2B |
| Q1'25 | $13.8B | −5.6% | $2.7B | −25.5% | 0.68 | $3.7B |
| Q4'24 * | $13.6B | −10.3% | $2.2B | −45.4% | 0.54 | $3.7B |
| Q3'24 | $12.7B | −12.8% | $1.9B | −41.3% | 0.46 | $4.0B |
| Q2'24 | $12.8B | −5.9% | $2.6B | −5.0% | 0.65 | $808.0M |
| Q1'24 | $14.7B | +7.6% | $3.6B | +36.3% | 0.89 | $2.4B |
| Q4'23 * | $15.2B | +16.0% | $4.0B | +40.6% | 0.97 | $6.0B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.6% | +4.9% | +2.5% | +2.6% |
| Operating cash flow | −10.7% | −1.7% | +0.4% | +2.3% |
| Free cash flow | −12.5% | −2.9% | +0.3% | +2.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | +2.7% | +5.9% | +4.7% | +7.2% |
| Equity | +4.3% | +4.0% | −2.3% | +0.4% |
| LT debt | +42.8% | +16.5% | −2.3% | +1.2% |
| Diluted shares | −1.0% | −1.2% | −2.4% | −2.2% |
| Stock price | +33.5% | +18.7% | +17.5% | +16.3% |
$100, 3 years ago
$238vs $192 in SPY
33.5% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$235vs $181 in SPY
18.7% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$502vs $428 in SPY
17.5% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$960vs $803 in SPY
16.3% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$8.49
$223.1B created / $26.3B retained
Last 10 years
$8.08
$321.7B created / $39.8B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
20.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.20
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.5y
SBC / FCF
30.0%
Owner earnings
$8.9B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.0%
Share count 5y
−2.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
4.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.03
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 29.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -6.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -1.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
19 of 27 checks pass · 70%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- fail
Revenue growth
4.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
5.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-2.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-1.7% vs 4.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
7/7
- pass
Net margin
21.0% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
24.3% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
64.5% vs 62.7% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
26.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
20.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
20.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $14.2B vs NI $13.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
37% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.39 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$50.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
10% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
3/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
30% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
99% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.8% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
34.1 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
15.5% vs 0.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63,325 | 40,860 | 15,368 | 13,267 | 3.33 | 14,177 | 1,410 | 12,767 | 6,553 | 6,106 | 3,830 | 7,218 | 19,372 | 50,285 | 3,987 |
| 2025 | 56,654 | 36,790 | 11,760 | 10,180 | 2.55 | 14,193 | 905 | 13,288 | 6,437 | 6,000 | 3,641 | 8,346 | 22,861 | 46,843 | 3,998 |
| 2024 | 53,803 | 34,828 | 12,181 | 10,320 | 2.54 | 10,880 | 670 | 10,210 | 6,384 | 5,787 | 3,074 | 7,508 | 19,621 | 45,457 | 4,062 |
| 2023 | 56,998 | 35,753 | 15,031 | 12,613 | 3.07 | 19,886 | 849 | 19,037 | 6,302 | 4,293 | 2,353 | 10,123 | 6,658 | 44,353 | 4,105 |
| 2022 | 51,557 | 32,248 | 13,969 | 11,812 | 2.82 | 13,226 | 477 | 12,749 | 6,224 | 7,689 | 1,886 | 7,079 | 8,416 | 39,773 | 4,192 |
| 2021 | 49,818 | 31,894 | 12,833 | 10,591 | 2.50 | 15,454 | 692 | 14,762 | 6,163 | 2,877 | 1,761 | 9,175 | 9,018 | 41,275 | 4,236 |
| 2020 | 49,301 | 31,683 | 13,620 | 11,214 | 2.64 | 15,426 | 770 | 14,656 | 6,016 | 2,659 | 1,569 | 11,809 | 11,578 | 37,920 | 4,254 |
| 2019 | 51,904 | 32,666 | 14,219 | 11,621 | 2.61 | 15,831 | 909 | 14,922 | 5,979 | 20,717 | 1,570 | 11,750 | 14,475 | 33,571 | 4,453 |
| 2018 | 49,330 | 30,606 | 12,309 | 110 | 0.02 | 13,666 | 834 | 12,832 | 5,968 | 17,547 | 1,576 | 8,934 | 20,331 | 43,204 | 4,881 |
| 2017 | 48,005 | 30,224 | 11,973 | 9,609 | 1.90 | 13,876 | 964 | 12,912 | 5,511 | 3,685 | 1,526 | 11,708 | 25,725 | 66,137 | 5,049 |
| 2016 | 49,247 | 30,960 | 12,660 | 10,739 | 2.11 | 13,570 | 1,146 | 12,424 | 4,750 | 3,909 | 1,458 | 7,631 | 24,483 | 63,586 | 5,088 |
| 2015 | 49,161 | 29,681 | 10,770 | 8,981 | 1.75 | 12,552 | 1,227 | 11,325 | 4,086 | 4,324 | 1,440 | 6,877 | 21,457 | 59,698 | 5,146 |
| 2014 | 47,142 | 27,769 | 9,345 | 7,853 | 1.49 | 12,332 | 1,275 | 11,057 | 3,758 | 9,413 | 1,348 | 6,726 | 20,337 | 56,654 | 5,281 |
| 2013 | 48,607 | 29,440 | 11,196 | 9,983 | 1.86 | 12,894 | 1,160 | 11,734 | 3,310 | 2,773 | 1,120 | 7,925 | 12,928 | 59,120 | 5,380 |
| 2012 | 46,061 | 28,209 | 10,065 | 8,041 | 1.49 | 11,491 | 1,126 | 10,365 | 1,501 | 4,560 | 1,401 | 9,799 | 16,297 | 51,286 | 5,404 |
| 2011 | 43,218 | 26,536 | 7,674 | 6,490 | 1.17 | 10,079 | 1,174 | 8,905 | 658 | 6,713 | 1,620 | 7,662 | 16,234 | 47,226 | 5,563 |
| 2010 | 40,040 | 25,643 | 9,164 | 7,767 | 1.33 | 10,173 | 1,008 | 9,165 | — | 7,864 | 1,517 | 4,581 | 12,188 | 44,267 | 5,848 |
| 2009 | 36,117 | 23,094 | 7,322 | 6,134 | 1.05 | 9,897 | 1,005 | 8,892 | — | 3,611 | 1,231 | 5,718 | 10,295 | 38,647 | 5,857 |
| 2008 | 39,540 | 25,346 | 9,442 | 8,052 | 1.31 | 12,089 | 1,268 | 10,821 | — | 10,441 | 1,112 | 5,191 | — | 34,402 | 6,163 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.