CRWD
CrowdStrike · Information Technology · Systems Software
$263.01
52w 85.68 – 286.99
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$269.3B
P/E
—
P/FCF
214.9
FCF yield
0.5%
ROE
-3.7%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $269.3B, the market is pricing in 41.1% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 34.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $20 · $44 · $63 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 17.3× across 7 years, CRWD would trade near $27/share (25th–75th percentile: $25–$33); it trades at 167.0× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+29.0%
Rev 5y
+40.6%
Rev 10y
+58.8%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
+34.0%
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2018–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'27 | $1.5B | +25.8% | $5.3M | — | 0.01 | $530.3M |
| Q1'27 | $1.4B | +25.6% | $27.8M | — | 0.11 | $590.9M |
| Q4'26 * | $1.3B | +23.3% | $45.9M | — | -0.02 | $497.9M |
| Q3'26 | $1.2B | +22.2% | −$34.0M | — | -0.14 | $397.5M |
| Q2'26 | $1.2B | +21.3% | −$70.2M | −249.2% | -0.07 | $332.8M |
| Q1'26 | $1.1B | +19.8% | −$104.3M | −343.5% | -0.42 | $384.1M |
| Q4'25 * | $1.1B | +25.2% | −$88.3M | −341.4% | -0.35 | $345.7M |
| Q3'25 | $1.0B | +28.5% | −$16.8M | −163.1% | -0.07 | $326.1M |
| Q2'25 | $963.9M | +31.7% | $47.0M | +454.9% | 0.19 | $326.6M |
| Q1'25 | $921.0M | +33.0% | $42.8M | +8621.0% | 0.17 | $383.2M |
| Q4'24 * | $845.3M | +32.6% | $36.6M | — | 0.16 | $347.0M |
| Q3'24 | $786.0M | +35.3% | $26.7M | — | 0.11 | $273.5M |
| Q2'24 | $731.6M | +36.7% | $8.5M | — | 0.03 | $244.8M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +29.0% | +40.6% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +19.7% | +35.2% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +22.9% | +34.0% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | — |
| Equity | +44.6% | +38.4% | — | — |
| LT debt | +0.2% | +0.2% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +2.4% | +2.8% | — | — |
| Stock price | +81.2% | +30.1% | — | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$595vs $192 in SPY
81.2% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$373vs $181 in SPY
30.1% vs 12.6%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
31.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
0.6%
MC vs 10× OCF
17.47
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.6y
SBC / FCF
83.7%
Owner earnings
$213.6M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.1%
Share count 5y
+9.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
20.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.21
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 4.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 494.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 22.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
12 of 24 checks pass · 50%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
3/6
- pass
Revenue growth
40.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
34.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 8 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
7 of 9 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
1 of 9 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
35.2% vs 40.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/7
- fail
Net margin
-3.4% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
-6.1% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
74.7% vs 73.2% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-3.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
31.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
27.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $1.6B vs NI −$162.5M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
702% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.17 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$4.4B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
-10% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
9.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
84% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
1 of 9 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/3
- fail
FCF yield
0.5% · ≥ 3%
- na
Earnings multiple
— · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
41.1% vs 34.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Net loss
The company reported a net loss in the latest fiscal year.
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Shareholder dilution
Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4,812 | 3,593 | -293 | -163 | -0.65 | 1,612 | 302 | 1,310 | — | — | 1,097 | 5,230 | 745 | 4,428 | 251 |
| 2025 | 3,954 | 2,963 | -116 | -15 | -0.06 | 1,382 | 255 | 1,127 | — | — | 861 | 4,323 | 744 | 3,279 | 245 |
| 2024 | 3,056 | 2,297 | -19 | 72 | 0.30 | 1,166 | 177 | 990 | — | — | 649 | 3,375 | 742 | 2,304 | 244 |
| 2023 | 2,241 | 1,640 | -190 | -183 | -0.79 | 941 | 235 | 706 | — | — | 527 | 2,455 | 741 | 1,464 | 233 |
| 2022 | 1,452 | 1,068 | -143 | -235 | -1.03 | 575 | 112 | 463 | — | — | 310 | 1,997 | 740 | 1,026 | 227 |
| 2021 | 874 | 645 | -93 | -93 | -0.43 | 357 | 53 | 304 | — | 0 | 150 | 1,919 | 738 | 871 | 218 |
| 2020 | 481 | 340 | -146 | -142 | -0.96 | 100 | 80 | 20 | — | 0 | 80 | 265 | 0 | 742 | 148 |
| 2019 | 250 | 163 | -137 | -140 | -3.12 | -23 | 36 | -59 | — | 2 | 21 | 88 | — | -488 | — |
| 2018 | 119 | 64 | -131 | -135 | -3.38 | -59 | 23 | -82 | — | 0 | 12 | 63 | — | -369 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.