MMarketMath

CRM

Fast growerQuality: High (80/100)1 red flag

Salesforce · Information Technology · Application Software

$209.06

52w 146.32 – 269.11

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$171.2B

P/E

22.6

P/FCF

11.7

FCF yield

8.5%

ROE

12.6%

Shldr yield

8.4%

div 0.9% + bb 7.5%

What today's price assumes

At $171.2B, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 26.4% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $268 · $601 · $866 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 31.9× across 19 years, CRM would trade near $584/share (25th–75th percentile: $478–$649); it trades at 11.4× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+9.8%

Rev 5y

+14.3%

Rev 10y

+20.1%

EPS 5y

+12.2%

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

+28.6%

FCF 10y

+26.4%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $748.7M
2009: $1.1B
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.7B
2012: $2.3B
2013: $3.1B
2014: $4.1B
2015: $5.4B
2016: $6.7B
2017: $8.4B
2018: $10.5B
2019: $13.3B
2020: $17.1B
2021: $21.3B
2022: $26.5B
2023: $31.4B
2024: $34.9B
2025: $37.9B
2026: $41.5B
$0$20.0B$40.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Net income

2008: $18.4M
2009: $43.4M
2010: $80.7M
2011: $64.5M
2012: −$11.6M
2013: −$270.4M
2014: −$232.2M
2015: −$262.7M
2016: −$47.4M
2017: $323.0M
2018: $360.0M
2019: $1.1B
2020: $126.0M
2021: $4.1B
2022: $1.4B
2023: $208.0M
2024: $4.1B
2025: $6.2B
2026: $7.5B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Free cash flow

2008: $160.7M
2009: $168.5M
2010: $221.4M
2011: $368.2M
2012: $439.9M
2013: $561.3M
2014: $576.4M
2015: $891.0M
2016: $1.4B
2017: $1.7B
2018: $2.2B
2019: $2.8B
2020: $3.7B
2021: $4.1B
2022: $5.3B
2023: $6.3B
2024: $9.5B
2025: $12.4B
2026: $14.4B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 485.0M
2009: 496.2M
2010: 507.6M
2011: 541.2M
2012: 541.2M
2013: 564.9M
2014: 597.6M
2015: 624.1M
2016: 661.6M
2017: 700.0M
2018: 735.0M
2019: 775.0M
2020: 850.0M
2021: 930.0M
2022: 974.0M
2023: 997.0M
2024: 984.0M
2025: 974.0M
2026: 956.0M
0250.0M500.0M750.0M
08
12
16
20
24

Margins

0%50%08111417202326
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2021: $0
2022: $0
2023: $4.0B
2024: $7.6B
2025: $9.4B
2026: $14.2B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
08
12
16
20
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$5.0B$10.0B08111417202326
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'24: $8.2B
Q2'24: $8.6B
Q3'24: $8.7B
Q4'24: $9.3B
Q1'25: $9.1B
Q2'25: $9.3B
Q3'25: $9.4B
Q4'25: $10.0B
Q1'26: $9.8B
Q2'26: $10.2B
Q3'26: $10.3B
Q4'26: $11.2B
Q1'27: $11.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
24
24
25
26
27

Net income by quarter

Q1'24: $199.0M
Q2'24: $1.3B
Q3'24: $1.2B
Q4'24: $1.4B
Q1'25: $1.5B
Q2'25: $1.4B
Q3'25: $1.5B
Q4'25: $1.7B
Q1'26: $1.5B
Q2'26: $1.9B
Q3'26: $2.1B
Q4'26: $1.9B
Q1'27: $2.1B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
24
24
25
26
27
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'27$11.1B+13.3%$2.1B+36.7%2.42$6.7B
Q4'26 *$11.2B+12.1%$1.9B+13.8%2.06$5.5B
Q3'26$10.3B+8.6%$2.1B+36.6%2.19$2.3B
Q2'26$10.2B+9.8%$1.9B+32.1%1.96$740.0M
Q1'26$9.8B+7.6%$1.5B+0.5%1.59$6.5B
Q4'25 *$10.0B+7.6%$1.7B+18.1%1.75$4.0B
Q3'25$9.4B+8.3%$1.5B+24.8%1.58$2.0B
Q2'25$9.3B+8.4%$1.4B+12.8%1.47$892.0M
Q1'25$9.1B+10.7%$1.5B+670.4%1.56$6.2B
Q4'24 *$9.3B+10.8%$1.4B1.47$3.4B
Q3'24$8.7B+11.3%$1.2B+482.9%1.25$1.5B
Q2'24$8.6B+11.4%$1.3B+1763.2%1.28$808.0M
Q1'24$8.2B+11.3%$199.0M+610.7%0.20$4.5B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+9.8%+14.3%+20.1%+24.0%
Operating cash flow+28.2%+25.6%+24.5%+26.2%
Free cash flow+31.6%+28.6%+26.4%+27.7%
EPS (diluted)+233.7%+12.2%+32.2%+32.2%
Equity+0.4%+7.3%+28.0%+29.1%
LT debt+3.5%+31.3%+36.3%
Diluted shares−1.4%+0.6%+3.7%+3.9%
Stock price−1.3%−4.3%+10.4%+13.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$96vs $176 in SPY

-1.3% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$80vs $181 in SPY

-4.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$268vs $412 in SPY

10.4% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$661vs $813 in SPY

13.4% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$-0.77

−$12.6B created / $16.3B retained

Last 10 years

$6.33

$141.2B created / $22.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

21.6%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

8.7%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.13

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

0.7y

SBC / FCF

24.4%

Owner earnings

$10.9B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

6.5%

Share count 5y

+3.8%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.05

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 47.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 42.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 19.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

24 of 27 checks pass · 89%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

7/7

  • Revenue growth

    14.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    12.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    28.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    25.6% vs 14.3% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    18.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    20.1% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    77.7% vs 73.3% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    12.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    21.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    34.7% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $15.0B vs NI $7.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

5/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    0.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    70% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.18 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $59.1B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    4% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

1/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    3.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    24% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    fail
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    98% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    4 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    8.5% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    22.6 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    0.4% vs 26.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    8.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202641,52532,2558,3317,4577.8014,99659414,4021,58712,5963,5097,32710,43959,142956
202537,89529,2527,2056,1976.3613,09265812,4341,5377,8293,1838,8488,43361,173974
202434,85726,3165,0114,1364.2010,2347369,49807,6202,7878,4728,42759,646984
202331,35222,9921,0302080.217,1117986,31304,0003,2797,0169,41958,359997
202226,49219,4665481,4441.486,0007175,28302,7795,46410,59258,131974
202121,25215,8144554,0724.384,8017104,09102,1906,1952,67341,493930
202017,09812,8632971260.154,3316433,6881,7854,1452,67333,885850
201913,2829,8315351,1101.433,3985952,8031,2832,6693,17315,605775
201810,5407,7674543600.492,7385342,2049972,54369510,376735
20178,4376,2032183230.462,1624641,6988201,6072,0088,230700
20166,6675,013115-47-0.071,6722841,3885941,1585,003662
20155,3744,084-146-263-0.421,1812908915659083,975624
20144,0713,103-286-232-0.398752995765037822553,039598
20133,0502,367-111-270-0.4873717656137974702,318565
20122,2671,778-35-12-0.025921524402296071,587541
20111,6571,33397640.12459913681204241,276541
20101,3061,048115810.1627150221891,0111,044508
20091,07785664430.092306116877484672496
200874957720180.042044416155279461485

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.