MMarketMath

CRH

StalwartQuality: High (70/100)1 red flag

CRH plc · Materials · Construction Materials

$95.79

52w 92.52 – 131.55

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$63.7B

P/E

16.9

P/FCF

21.7

FCF yield

4.6%

ROE

15.6%

Shldr yield

1.9%

div 0.0% + bb 1.9%

What today's price assumes

At $63.7B, the market is pricing in 8.8% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.7% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $67 · $70 · $87 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+4.6%

Rev 5y

+6.4%

Rev 10y

+6.4%

EPS 5y

+13.5%

EPS 10y

+13.5%

FCF 5y

+4.7%

FCF 10y

+4.7%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2021–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2021: $29.2B
2022: $32.7B
2023: $34.9B
2024: $35.6B
2025: $37.4B
$0$10.0B$20.0B$30.0B
21
22
23
24
25

Net income

2021: $2.6B
2022: $3.9B
2023: $3.2B
2024: $3.5B
2025: $3.8B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
21
22
23
24
25

Free cash flow

2021: $2.4B
2022: $2.3B
2023: $3.2B
2024: $2.4B
2025: $2.9B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
21
22
23
24
25

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2021: 786.8M
2022: 764.1M
2023: 729.2M
2024: 689.5M
2025: 677.0M
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
21
22
23
24
25

Margins

10%20%30%2122232425
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2021: $896.0M
2022: $1.2B
2023: $3.1B
2024: $1.5B
2025: $1.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
21
22
23
24
25

Cash vs long-term debt

$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B2122232425
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $9.7B
Q3'23: $10.1B
Q4'23: $8.7B
Q1'24: $6.5B
Q2'24: $9.7B
Q3'24: $10.5B
Q4'24: $8.9B
Q1'25: $6.8B
Q2'25: $10.2B
Q3'25: $11.1B
Q4'25: $9.4B
Q1'26: $7.4B
Q2'26: $10.8B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $1.2B
Q3'23: $1.3B
Q4'23: $701.0M
Q1'24: $116.0M
Q2'24: $1.3B
Q3'24: $1.4B
Q4'24: $703.0M
Q1'25: −$94.0M
Q2'25: $1.3B
Q3'25: $1.5B
Q4'25: $1.0B
Q1'26: −$176.0M
Q2'26: $1.5B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$10.8B+5.6%$1.5B+12.7%2.21$1.1B
Q1'26$7.4B+9.1%−$176.0M-0.27−$616.0M
Q4'25 *$9.4B+6.2%$1.0B+45.8%1.51$2.9B
Q3'25$11.1B+5.3%$1.5B+9.2%2.21$2.0B
Q2'25$10.2B+5.7%$1.3B+1.7%1.94$1.4B
Q1'25$6.8B+3.4%−$94.0M−181.0%-0.15−$659.0M
Q4'24 *$8.9B+2.1%$703.0M+0.3%1.01$2.7B
Q3'24$10.5B+3.8%$1.4B+5.4%1.97$1.5B
Q2'24$9.7B−0.6%$1.3B+8.2%1.88$1.5B
Q1'24$6.5B+1.6%$116.0M0.16−$712.0M
Q4'23 *$8.7B$701.0M0.96$2.4B
Q3'23$10.1B$1.3B1.80$1.6B
Q2'23$9.7B$1.2B1.62$1.6B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+4.6%
Operating cash flow+14.0%
Free cash flow+8.5%
EPS (diluted)+2.5%
Equity+2.7%
LT debt+26.5%
Diluted shares−4.0%
Stock price+20.6%+15.5%+13.9%+14.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$175vs $176 in SPY

20.6% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$206vs $181 in SPY

15.5% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$367vs $412 in SPY

13.9% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$798vs $813 in SPY

14.8% vs 15.0%/yr

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

13.9%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

7.4%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.12

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

5.7y

SBC / FCF

4.9%

Owner earnings

$2.8B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

4.4%

Share count 5y

−3.7%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

66.6%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$1.52

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

18 of 23 checks pass · 78%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/4

  • Revenue growth

    6.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    13.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    4.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Revenue rises consistently

    · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    na
  • FCF consistently positive

    · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    na
  • Profitable every year

    · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    na
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    9.0% vs 6.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    10.0% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    14.5% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    36.1% vs 33.1% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    15.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    13.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    7.8% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $5.6B vs NI $3.8B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    5.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail
  • Cash cushion

    25% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    0.69 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $24.0B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    15% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

3/3

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -3.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    41% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    na

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    4.6% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    16.9 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    8.8% vs 4.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    1.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Heavy debt load

Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202537,44713,5285,4403,7535.515,6252,7132,9121,1811434,09616,47824,004677
202435,57212,7014,9253,4925.024,9892,5782,4111,4821253,72010,96921,607690
202334,94911,9634,1863,1784.335,0171,8173,2003,0671236,3419,77620,854729
202232,72310,8153,8093,8625.113,8001,5232,2771,1781015,9368,14522,157764
202129,2069,8273,3272,6303.323,9791,5542,4258961105,78321,246787

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.