COST
Costco · Consumer Staples · Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
$971.40
52w 844.06 – 1,096.50
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$430.8B
P/E
51.9
P/FCF
53.6
FCF yield
1.9%
ROE
27.8%
Shldr yield
0.7%
div 0.5% + bb 0.2%
What today's price assumes
At $430.8B, the market is pricing in 21.2% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 15.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $269 · $604 · $768 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 14.3× across 18 years, COST would trade near $431/share (25th–75th percentile: $295–$613); it trades at 32.3× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.6%
Rev 5y
+10.5%
Rev 10y
+9.0%
EPS 5y
+15.1%
EPS 10y
+13.0%
FCF 5y
+5.3%
FCF 10y
+15.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $70.5B | +11.6% | $2.2B | +15.2% | 4.93 | — |
| Q2'26 | $69.6B | +9.2% | $2.0B | +13.8% | 4.58 | — |
| Q1'26 | $67.3B | +8.3% | $2.0B | +11.3% | 4.50 | $4.7B |
| Q4'25 * | $86.2B | +8.1% | $2.6B | +10.9% | 5.87 | — |
| Q3'25 | $63.2B | +8.0% | $1.9B | +13.2% | 4.28 | — |
| Q2'25 | $63.7B | +9.0% | $1.8B | +2.6% | 4.02 | — |
| Q1'25 | $62.2B | +7.5% | $1.8B | +13.2% | 4.04 | $3.3B |
| Q4'24 * | $79.7B | +1.0% | $2.4B | +9.0% | 5.28 | — |
| Q3'24 | $58.5B | +9.1% | $1.7B | +29.1% | 3.78 | — |
| Q2'24 | $58.4B | +5.7% | $1.7B | +18.9% | 3.92 | — |
| Q1'24 | $57.8B | +6.2% | $1.6B | +16.5% | 3.58 | $4.7B |
| Q4'23 * | $78.9B | +9.5% | $2.2B | +15.6% | 4.86 | — |
| Q3'23 | $53.6B | +2.0% | $1.3B | −3.8% | 2.93 | — |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.6% | +10.5% | +9.0% | +8.8% |
| Operating cash flow | +21.7% | +8.5% | +12.0% | +11.0% |
| Free cash flow | +30.8% | +5.3% | +15.3% | +10.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | +11.5% | +15.1% | +13.0% | +13.0% |
| Equity | +12.2% | +9.8% | +10.6% | +6.8% |
| LT debt | −4.1% | −5.3% | +1.6% | +6.8% |
| Diluted shares | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | −0.0% |
| Stock price | +22.5% | +17.6% | +21.6% | +20.8% |
$100, 3 years ago
$184vs $176 in SPY
22.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$225vs $181 in SPY
17.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$709vs $412 in SPY
21.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,712vs $813 in SPY
20.8% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$20.56
$265.0B created / $12.9B retained
Last 10 years
$17.06
$355.9B created / $20.9B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
38.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.2%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.15
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
0.7y
SBC / FCF
11.0%
Owner earnings
$7.0B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.7%
Share count 5y
+0.0%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
11.6%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.09
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 13.8% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 62.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 8.6% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 26 checks pass · 69%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
10.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
15.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
5.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
8.5% vs 10.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/6
- fail
Net margin
2.9% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
3.8% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
27.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
38.2% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
2.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $13.3B vs NI $8.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
5/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
0.7y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
248% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.20 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$29.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
1% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
11% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
39% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.9% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
51.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
21.2% vs 15.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 275,235 | — | 10,383 | 8,099 | 18.21 | 13,335 | 5,498 | 7,837 | 2,183 | 903 | 860 | 14,161 | 5,713 | 29,164 | 445 |
| 2024 | 254,453 | — | 9,285 | 7,367 | 16.56 | 11,339 | 4,710 | 6,629 | 9,041 | 700 | 818 | 9,906 | 5,794 | 23,622 | 445 |
| 2023 | 242,290 | — | 8,114 | 6,292 | 14.16 | 11,068 | 4,323 | 6,745 | 1,251 | 676 | 774 | 13,700 | 5,377 | 25,058 | 444 |
| 2022 | 226,954 | — | 7,793 | 5,844 | 13.14 | 7,392 | 3,891 | 3,501 | 1,498 | 439 | 724 | 10,203 | 6,484 | 20,642 | 445 |
| 2021 | 195,929 | — | 6,708 | 5,007 | 11.27 | 8,958 | 3,588 | 5,370 | 5,748 | 496 | 665 | 11,258 | 6,692 | 17,564 | 444 |
| 2020 | 166,761 | — | 5,435 | 4,002 | 9.02 | 8,861 | 2,810 | 6,051 | 1,479 | 196 | 619 | 12,277 | 7,514 | 18,284 | 444 |
| 2019 | 152,703 | 16,465 | 4,737 | 3,659 | 8.26 | 6,356 | 2,998 | 3,358 | 1,038 | 247 | 595 | 8,384 | 5,124 | 15,243 | 443 |
| 2018 | 141,576 | — | 4,480 | 3,134 | 7.09 | 5,774 | 2,969 | 2,805 | 689 | 328 | 544 | 6,055 | 6,487 | 12,799 | 442 |
| 2017 | 129,025 | — | 4,111 | 2,679 | 6.08 | 6,726 | 2,502 | 4,224 | 3,904 | 469 | 514 | 4,546 | 6,573 | 10,778 | 441 |
| 2016 | 118,719 | — | 3,672 | 2,350 | 5.33 | 3,292 | 2,649 | 643 | 746 | 486 | 459 | 3,379 | 4,061 | 12,079 | 441 |
| 2015 | 116,199 | — | 3,624 | 2,377 | 5.37 | 4,285 | 2,393 | 1,892 | 2,865 | 481 | 394 | 4,801 | 4,852 | 10,617 | 443 |
| 2014 | 112,640 | — | 3,220 | 2,058 | 4.65 | 3,984 | 1,993 | 1,991 | 584 | 334 | 327 | 5,738 | 5,093 | 12,303 | 442 |
| 2013 | 105,156 | — | 3,053 | 2,039 | 4.63 | 3,437 | 2,083 | 1,354 | 3,560 | 36 | 285 | 4,644 | 4,998 | 10,833 | 441 |
| 2012 | 99,137 | — | 2,759 | 1,709 | 3.89 | 3,057 | 1,480 | 1,577 | 446 | 632 | 241 | 3,528 | 1,381 | 12,361 | 439 |
| 2011 | 88,915 | — | 2,439 | 1,462 | 3.30 | 3,198 | 1,290 | 1,908 | 389 | 624 | 207 | 4,009 | 1,253 | 12,002 | 443 |
| 2010 | 77,946 | — | 2,077 | 1,303 | 2.92 | 2,780 | 1,055 | 1,725 | 338 | 551 | 190 | 3,214 | 2,141 | 10,829 | 446 |
| 2009 | 71,422 | — | 1,777 | 1,086 | 2.47 | 2,092 | 1,250 | 842 | 296 | 69 | 181 | 3,157 | 2,130 | 10,024 | 440 |
| 2008 | 72,483 | — | 1,969 | 1,283 | 2.89 | 2,206 | 1,599 | 607 | 265 | 895 | 166 | 2,619 | — | 9,274 | 444 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.