COR
Cencora · Health Care · Health Care Distributors
$323.77
52w 244.82 – 377.54
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$61.8B
P/E
39.1
P/FCF
18.9
FCF yield
5.3%
ROE
103.1%
Shldr yield
1.4%
div 0.7% + bb 0.7%
What today's price assumes
At $61.8B, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -1.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $174 · $174 · $215 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.9× across 19 years, COR would trade near $161/share (25th–75th percentile: $105–$210); it trades at 15.9× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+10.4%
Rev 5y
+11.1%
Rev 10y
+9.0%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
+11.8%
FCF 10y
−1.4%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $84.8B | +5.1% | $763.5M | +11.1% | 3.94 | $2.7B |
| Q2'26 | $78.4B | +3.8% | $1.6B | +128.6% | 8.40 | $1.3B |
| Q1'26 | $85.9B | +5.5% | $559.6M | +14.5% | 2.87 | −$2.3B |
| Q4'25 * | $83.7B | +5.9% | −$339.7M | −10144.5% | -1.74 | $3.1B |
| Q3'25 | $80.7B | +8.7% | $687.4M | +42.2% | 3.52 | $109.2M |
| Q2'25 | $75.5B | +10.3% | $717.9M | +70.6% | 3.68 | $3.4B |
| Q1'25 | $81.5B | +12.8% | $488.6M | −18.8% | 2.50 | −$2.7B |
| Q4'24 * | $79.1B | +14.7% | $3.4M | −99.0% | 0.04 | $1.0B |
| Q3'24 | $74.2B | +10.9% | $483.5M | +0.8% | 2.42 | $2.5B |
| Q2'24 | $68.4B | +7.8% | $420.8M | −3.4% | 2.09 | −$878.4M |
| Q1'24 | $72.3B | +15.0% | $601.5M | +25.4% | 2.98 | $885.2M |
| Q4'23 * | $68.9B | +12.7% | $350.6M | +18.9% | 1.72 | $1.8B |
| Q3'23 | $66.9B | +11.5% | $479.6M | +17.8% | 2.35 | $744.9M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.4% | +11.1% | +9.0% | +9.9% |
| Operating cash flow | +12.8% | +11.9% | −0.1% | +8.7% |
| Free cash flow | +13.3% | +11.8% | −1.4% | +8.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | −0.3% | +12.0% | +19.1% | +8.3% |
| Equity | +61.2% | −10.2% | +9.4% | −4.4% |
| LT debt | +17.6% | +15.8% | +8.0% | +12.2% |
| Diluted shares | −2.6% | −1.0% | −1.1% | −2.0% |
| Stock price | +23.5% | +23.2% | +17.4% | +17.8% |
$100, 3 years ago
$188vs $176 in SPY
23.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$284vs $181 in SPY
23.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$497vs $412 in SPY
17.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,175vs $813 in SPY
17.8% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$7.97
$48.1B created / $6.0B retained
Last 10 years
$9.43
$50.1B created / $5.3B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
42.8%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
6.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.57
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.4y
SBC / FCF
4.6%
Owner earnings
$3.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.0%
Share count 5y
−3.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
0.8%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.01
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 40.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 24.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 25 checks pass · 72%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/6
- pass
Revenue growth
11.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
11.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
11.9% vs 11.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/7
- fail
Net margin
0.5% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
0.8% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
3.6% vs 3.5% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
103.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
42.8% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
1.0% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.9B vs NI $1.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
58% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
5.00 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$1.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-3.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
27% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.3% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
39.1 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
7.0% vs -1.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
1.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 321,333 | 11,479 | 2,629 | 1,554 | 7.96 | 3,875 | 668 | 3,207 | 437 | 435 | 148 | 4,356 | 7,543 | 1,508 | 195 |
| 2024 | 293,959 | 9,910 | 2,175 | 1,509 | 7.53 | 3,485 | 487 | 2,998 | 416 | 1,491 | 148 | 3,133 | 3,812 | 646 | 200 |
| 2023 | 262,173 | 8,959 | 2,341 | 1,745 | 8.53 | 3,911 | 458 | 3,453 | 399 | 1,181 | 125 | 2,592 | 4,146 | 522 | 205 |
| 2022 | 238,587 | 8,296 | 2,366 | 1,699 | 8.04 | 2,703 | 496 | 2,207 | 392 | 484 | 93 | 3,388 | 4,632 | -212 | 211 |
| 2021 | 213,989 | 6,943 | 2,354 | 1,540 | 7.39 | 2,667 | 438 | 2,228 | 367 | 82 | 100 | 2,547 | 6,384 | 223 | 208 |
| 2020 | 189,894 | 5,192 | -5,135 | -3,409 | -16.65 | 2,207 | 370 | 1,837 | 344 | 420 | 74 | 4,598 | 3,618 | -1,019 | 205 |
| 2019 | 179,589 | 5,138 | 1,112 | 855 | 4.04 | 2,344 | 310 | 2,034 | 339 | 674 | 59 | 3,374 | 4,034 | 2,879 | 212 |
| 2018 | 167,940 | 4,612 | 1,444 | 1,658 | 7.53 | 1,411 | 336 | 1,075 | 333 | 639 | 62 | 2,493 | 4,159 | 2,933 | 220 |
| 2017 | 153,144 | 4,546 | 1,060 | 364 | 1.64 | 1,504 | 466 | 1,038 | 320 | 330 | 62 | 2,435 | 3,430 | 2,064 | 222 |
| 2016 | 146,850 | 4,273 | 1,526 | 1,428 | 6.32 | 3,178 | 465 | 2,714 | 288 | 2,266 | 65 | 2,742 | 3,576 | 2,129 | 226 |
| 2015 | 135,962 | 3,529 | 422 | -138 | -0.63 | 3,922 | 232 | 3,691 | 254 | 1,859 | 61 | 2,167 | 3,493 | 616 | 218 |
| 2014 | 119,569 | 2,982 | 782 | 274 | 1.16 | 1,465 | 264 | 1,200 | 214 | 754 | 43 | 1,809 | 1,996 | 1,943 | 235 |
| 2013 | 87,959 | 2,508 | 898 | 434 | 0.00 | 788 | 202 | 586 | 196 | 484 | 36 | 1,231 | 1,397 | 2,308 | 235 |
| 2012 | 78,081 | 2,635 | 1,304 | 719 | 3.06 | 1,305 | 133 | 1,172 | 133 | 1,162 | 26 | 1,067 | 1,396 | 2,455 | 235 |
| 2011 | 78,696 | 2,459 | 1,190 | 707 | 2.77 | 1,168 | 156 | 1,012 | 118 | 841 | 27 | 1,826 | 973 | 2,867 | 254 |
| 2010 | 77,776 | 2,325 | 1,092 | 637 | 2.42 | 1,109 | 176 | 932 | 91 | 470 | 30 | 1,658 | 1,343 | 2,954 | 263 |
| 2009 | 71,760 | 2,100 | 884 | 503 | 1.81 | 784 | 146 | 638 | 63 | 450 | 27 | 1,009 | 1,177 | 2,716 | 277 |
| 2008 | 70,190 | 2,047 | 828 | 251 | 0.84 | 737 | 137 | 600 | 49 | 680 | 26 | 878 | 1,187 | 2,710 | 298 |
| 2007 | 65,672 | 2,219 | 789 | 469 | 1.36 | 1,208 | 111 | 1,097 | 37 | 1,434 | 24 | 640 | — | 3,100 | 344 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.