MMarketMath

COR

StalwartQuality: High (75/100)

Cencora · Health Care · Health Care Distributors

$323.77

52w 244.82 – 377.54

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$61.8B

P/E

39.1

P/FCF

18.9

FCF yield

5.3%

ROE

103.1%

Shldr yield

1.4%

div 0.7% + bb 0.7%

What today's price assumes

At $61.8B, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -1.4% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $174 · $174 · $215 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 7.9× across 19 years, COR would trade near $161/share (25th–75th percentile: $105–$210); it trades at 15.9× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+10.4%

Rev 5y

+11.1%

Rev 10y

+9.0%

EPS 5y

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

+11.8%

FCF 10y

−1.4%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $65.7B
2008: $70.2B
2009: $71.8B
2010: $77.8B
2011: $78.7B
2012: $78.1B
2013: $88.0B
2014: $119.6B
2015: $136.0B
2016: $146.8B
2017: $153.1B
2018: $167.9B
2019: $179.6B
2020: $189.9B
2021: $214.0B
2022: $238.6B
2023: $262.2B
2024: $294.0B
2025: $321.3B
$0$100.0B$200.0B$300.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $469.2M
2008: $250.6M
2009: $503.4M
2010: $636.7M
2011: $706.6M
2012: $719.0M
2013: $433.7M
2014: $274.2M
2015: −$138.2M
2016: $1.4B
2017: $364.5M
2018: $1.7B
2019: $855.4M
2020: −$3.4B
2021: $1.5B
2022: $1.7B
2023: $1.7B
2024: $1.5B
2025: $1.6B
−$2.0B$0
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $1.1B
2008: $599.8M
2009: $637.9M
2010: $932.2M
2011: $1.0B
2012: $1.2B
2013: $585.7M
2014: $1.2B
2015: $3.7B
2016: $2.7B
2017: $1.0B
2018: $1.1B
2019: $2.0B
2020: $1.8B
2021: $2.2B
2022: $2.2B
2023: $3.5B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $3.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 344.3M
2008: 297.7M
2009: 277.4M
2010: 263.2M
2011: 254.5M
2012: 235.4M
2013: 235.4M
2014: 235.4M
2015: 217.8M
2016: 226.0M
2017: 221.6M
2018: 220.3M
2019: 211.8M
2020: 204.8M
2021: 208.5M
2022: 211.2M
2023: 204.6M
2024: 200.3M
2025: 195.2M
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-2%0%2%4%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $1.5B
2008: $728.4M
2009: $513.0M
2010: $561.0M
2011: $958.2M
2012: $1.3B
2013: $679.9M
2014: $968.4M
2015: $2.1B
2016: $2.6B
2017: $650.2M
2018: $972.3M
2019: $1.0B
2020: $764.0M
2021: $448.8M
2022: $875.4M
2023: $1.6B
2024: $1.9B
2025: $872.6M
$0$1.0B$2.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q3'23: $66.9B
Q4'23: $68.9B
Q1'24: $72.3B
Q2'24: $68.4B
Q3'24: $74.2B
Q4'24: $79.1B
Q1'25: $81.5B
Q2'25: $75.5B
Q3'25: $80.7B
Q4'25: $83.7B
Q1'26: $85.9B
Q2'26: $78.4B
Q3'26: $84.8B
$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B
23
24
25
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q3'23: $479.6M
Q4'23: $350.6M
Q1'24: $601.5M
Q2'24: $420.8M
Q3'24: $483.5M
Q4'24: $3.4M
Q1'25: $488.6M
Q2'25: $717.9M
Q3'25: $687.4M
Q4'25: −$339.7M
Q1'26: $559.6M
Q2'26: $1.6B
Q3'26: $763.5M
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
23
24
25
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q3'26$84.8B+5.1%$763.5M+11.1%3.94$2.7B
Q2'26$78.4B+3.8%$1.6B+128.6%8.40$1.3B
Q1'26$85.9B+5.5%$559.6M+14.5%2.87−$2.3B
Q4'25 *$83.7B+5.9%−$339.7M−10144.5%-1.74$3.1B
Q3'25$80.7B+8.7%$687.4M+42.2%3.52$109.2M
Q2'25$75.5B+10.3%$717.9M+70.6%3.68$3.4B
Q1'25$81.5B+12.8%$488.6M−18.8%2.50−$2.7B
Q4'24 *$79.1B+14.7%$3.4M−99.0%0.04$1.0B
Q3'24$74.2B+10.9%$483.5M+0.8%2.42$2.5B
Q2'24$68.4B+7.8%$420.8M−3.4%2.09−$878.4M
Q1'24$72.3B+15.0%$601.5M+25.4%2.98$885.2M
Q4'23 *$68.9B+12.7%$350.6M+18.9%1.72$1.8B
Q3'23$66.9B+11.5%$479.6M+17.8%2.35$744.9M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+10.4%+11.1%+9.0%+9.9%
Operating cash flow+12.8%+11.9%−0.1%+8.7%
Free cash flow+13.3%+11.8%−1.4%+8.6%
EPS (diluted)−0.3%+12.0%+19.1%+8.3%
Equity+61.2%−10.2%+9.4%−4.4%
LT debt+17.6%+15.8%+8.0%+12.2%
Diluted shares−2.6%−1.0%−1.1%−2.0%
Stock price+23.5%+23.2%+17.4%+17.8%

$100, 3 years ago

$188vs $176 in SPY

23.5% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$284vs $181 in SPY

23.2% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$497vs $412 in SPY

17.4% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,175vs $813 in SPY

17.8% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$7.97

$48.1B created / $6.0B retained

Last 10 years

$9.43

$50.1B created / $5.3B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

42.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

6.1%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.57

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

2.4y

SBC / FCF

4.6%

Owner earnings

$3.1B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

5.0%

Share count 5y

−3.1%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

0.8%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.01

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 40.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 24.9% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.0% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

18 of 25 checks pass · 72%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/6

  • Revenue growth

    11.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • FCF growth

    11.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    11.9% vs 11.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

4/7

  • Net margin

    0.5% · ≥ 8%

    fail
  • Operating margin

    0.8% · ≥ 10%

    fail
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    3.6% vs 3.5% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    103.1% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    42.8% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    1.0% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $3.9B vs NI $1.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    2.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    58% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    5.00 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $1.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -3.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    5% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    27% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

1/4

  • FCF yield

    5.3% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    39.1 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    7.0% vs -1.4% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    1.4% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
2025321,33311,4792,6291,5547.963,8756683,2074374351484,3567,5431,508195
2024293,9599,9102,1751,5097.533,4854872,9984161,4911483,1333,812646200
2023262,1738,9592,3411,7458.533,9114583,4533991,1811252,5924,146522205
2022238,5878,2962,3661,6998.042,7034962,207392484933,3884,632-212211
2021213,9896,9432,3541,5407.392,6674382,228367821002,5476,384223208
2020189,8945,192-5,135-3,409-16.652,2073701,837344420744,5983,618-1,019205
2019179,5895,1381,1128554.042,3443102,034339674593,3744,0342,879212
2018167,9404,6121,4441,6587.531,4113361,075333639622,4934,1592,933220
2017153,1444,5461,0603641.641,5044661,038320330622,4353,4302,064222
2016146,8504,2731,5261,4286.323,1784652,7142882,266652,7423,5762,129226
2015135,9623,529422-138-0.633,9222323,6912541,859612,1673,493616218
2014119,5692,9827822741.161,4652641,200214754431,8091,9961,943235
201387,9592,5088984340.00788202586196484361,2311,3972,308235
201278,0812,6351,3047193.061,3051331,1721331,162261,0671,3962,455235
201178,6962,4591,1907072.771,1681561,012118841271,8269732,867254
201077,7762,3251,0926372.421,10917693291470301,6581,3432,954263
200971,7602,1008845031.8178414663863450271,0091,1772,716277
200870,1902,0478282510.8473713760049680268781,1872,710298
200765,6722,2197894691.361,2081111,097371,434246403,100344

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.