MMarketMath

COP

Fast growerQuality: High (86/100)

ConocoPhillips · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$133.35

52w 85.57 – 135.88

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$160.2B

P/E

19.5

P/FCF

7.9

FCF yield

12.7%

ROE

12.4%

Shldr yield

5.8%

div 2.6% + bb 3.2%

What today's price assumes

At $160.2B, the market is pricing in -5.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last five years, FCF actually grew 196.1% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $251 · $563 · $812 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 4.6× across 19 years, COP would trade near $75/share (25th–75th percentile: $48–$100); it trades at 8.1× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

−5.3%

Rev 5y

+30.6%

Rev 10y

+5.3%

EPS 5y

—

EPS 10y

—

FCF 5y

+196.1%

FCF 10y

—

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $187.4B
2008: $240.8B
2009: $149.3B
2010: $63.3B
2011: $66.1B
2012: $62.0B
2013: $58.2B
2014: $55.5B
2015: $30.9B
2016: $23.7B
2017: $29.1B
2018: $36.4B
2019: $32.6B
2020: $13.7B
2021: $34.6B
2022: $61.0B
2023: $48.5B
2024: $49.4B
2025: $51.8B
$0$100.0B$200.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $11.9B
2008: −$16.3B
2009: $4.4B
2010: $11.4B
2011: $12.4B
2012: $8.4B
2013: $9.2B
2014: $6.9B
2015: −$4.4B
2016: −$3.6B
2017: −$855.0M
2018: $6.3B
2019: $7.2B
2020: −$2.7B
2021: $8.1B
2022: $18.7B
2023: $11.0B
2024: $9.2B
2025: $8.0B
−$10.0B$0$10.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $24.6B
2008: $22.7B
2009: $12.5B
2010: $17.0B
2011: $19.6B
2012: −$250.0M
2013: $604.0M
2014: −$516.0M
2015: −$2.5B
2016: −$466.0M
2017: $2.5B
2018: $6.2B
2019: $4.5B
2020: $87.0M
2021: $11.7B
2022: $18.2B
2023: $20.0B
2024: $20.1B
2025: $19.8B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 1.6B
2008: 1.5B
2009: 1.4B
2010: 1.4B
2011: 1.3B
2012: 1.2B
2013: 1.2B
2014: 1.2B
2015: 1.2B
2016: 1.2B
2017: 1.2B
2018: 1.1B
2019: 1.1B
2020: 1.1B
2021: 1.3B
2022: 1.3B
2023: 1.2B
2024: 1.2B
2025: 1.3B
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-20%0%20%40%07101316192225
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $9.7B
2008: $11.1B
2009: $2.8B
2010: $7.0B
2011: $14.8B
2012: $8.4B
2013: $3.3B
2014: $3.5B
2015: $3.7B
2016: $1.4B
2017: $4.3B
2018: $4.4B
2019: $5.0B
2020: $2.7B
2021: $6.0B
2022: $15.0B
2023: $11.0B
2024: $9.1B
2025: $9.0B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$10.0B$20.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $11.0B
Q3'23: $12.6B
Q4'23: $12.9B
Q1'24: $12.3B
Q2'24: $12.7B
Q3'24: $11.7B
Q4'24: $12.7B
Q1'25: $14.5B
Q2'25: $12.6B
Q3'25: $13.3B
Q4'25: $11.4B
Q1'26: $13.5B
Q2'26: $18.1B
$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $2.2B
Q3'23: $2.8B
Q4'23: $3.0B
Q1'24: $2.6B
Q2'24: $2.3B
Q3'24: $2.1B
Q4'24: $2.3B
Q1'25: $2.8B
Q2'25: $2.0B
Q3'25: $1.7B
Q4'25: $1.4B
Q1'26: $2.2B
Q2'26: $3.9B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$18.1B+43.3%$3.9B+99.4%3.23$7.4B
Q1'26$13.5B−6.8%$2.2B−23.4%1.78$4.3B
Q4'25 *$11.4B−10.7%$1.4B−37.5%1.18$4.3B
Q3'25$13.3B+14.0%$1.7B−16.2%1.38$5.9B
Q2'25$12.6B−0.3%$2.0B−15.4%1.56$3.5B
Q1'25$14.5B+17.6%$2.8B+11.7%2.23$6.1B
Q4'24 *$12.7B−1.5%$2.3B−23.3%1.92$4.5B
Q3'24$11.7B−7.1%$2.1B−26.4%1.76$5.8B
Q2'24$12.7B+14.9%$2.3B+4.3%1.98$4.9B
Q1'24$12.3B+2.9%$2.6B−12.6%2.15$5.0B
Q4'23 *$12.9B−6.5%$3.0B−7.4%2.52$5.3B
Q3'23$12.6B−21.1%$2.8B−38.2%2.32$5.4B
Q2'23$11.0B−34.2%$2.2B−56.6%1.84$3.9B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue−5.3%+30.6%+5.3%−1.3%
Operating cash flow−11.2%+32.7%+10.1%+1.0%
Free cash flow+2.9%+196.1%+33.8%+1.0%
EPS (diluted)−24.2%+213.6%+89.1%+56.1%
Equity+10.3%+16.7%+5.0%−0.4%
LT debt+11.4%+8.7%−0.4%−0.1%
Diluted shares−0.6%+3.1%+0.5%−0.9%
Stock price+6.9%+23.3%+16.0%+10.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$122vs $176 in SPY

6.9% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$285vs $181 in SPY

23.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$440vs $412 in SPY

16.0% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$426vs $813 in SPY

10.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.77

$93.2B created / $33.6B retained

Last 10 years

$2.91

$94.9B created / $32.7B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

22.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

11.5%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.79

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.1y

SBC / FCF

1.7%

Owner earnings

$19.5B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

12.5%

Share count 5y

−1.3%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 36.9% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 38.6% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 14.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

20 of 23 checks pass · 87%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/6

  • Revenue growth

    30.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • FCF growth

    196.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail

  • FCF consistently positive

    9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    7 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    32.7% vs 30.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

5/5

  • Net margin

    15.4% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    — · ≥ 10%

    na

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    12.4% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • Cash ROIC

    22.8% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    38.2% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $19.8B vs NI $8.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    29% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.35 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $64.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    — · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    2% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    46% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    12.7% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    19.5 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    -5.3% vs 196.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    5.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202551,824——7,9886.3519,796—19,7963,9955,0183366,49722,42464,4871,253
202449,418——9,2457.8120,124—20,1243,6465,4632685,60723,28964,7961,181
202348,522——10,9579.0619,965—19,9655,5835,4003345,63517,86349,2791,206
202261,049——18,68014.5728,31410,15918,1555,7269,2703776,45816,22648,0031,278
202134,590——8,0796.0716,9965,32411,6722,3593,6233045,02818,73445,4061,328
202013,662——-2,701-2.514,8024,715871,8318921592,99114,75029,8491,078
201932,567——7,1890.0111,1046,6364,4681,5003,5002745,08814,79034,9811,078
201836,417——6,257—12,9346,7506,1841,3632,9992655,91516,14731,9391,128
201729,106——-855-0.007,0774,5912,4861,3053,0002276,32522,43530,6071,172
201623,693——-3,615-0.004,4034,869-4661,2531262723,61026,18634,9741,195
201530,935——-4,428-0.007,57210,050-2,4783,66403622,36823,45339,7621,192
201455,517——6,8690.0116,56917,085-5163,52503585,06222,38351,9111,195
201358,248——9,1560.0116,14115,5376043,33403086,24621,07352,0901,190
201262,004——8,4280.0113,92214,172-2503,2785,0983213,61820,77047,9871,202
201166,069——12,4360.0119,646—19,6463,63211,1232465,78021,61065,2391,331
201063,335——11,3580.0117,045—17,0453,1753,8662119,45422,65668,5621,431
2009149,341——4,4143.0812,479—12,4792,832012154226,92562,0231,431
2008240,842——-16,349-11.2322,658—22,6582,8548,24919375527,08555,1651,455
2007187,437——11,8917.5624,550—24,5502,6617,001—1,456—89,5071,572

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗