MMarketMath

COHR

Fast growerQuality: Medium (50/100)2 red flags

Coherent Corp. · Information Technology · Electronic Components

$275.49

52w 85.94 – 440.00

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$53.9B

P/E

67.0

P/FCF

FCF yield

-1.9%

ROE

7.4%

Shldr yield

0.0%

div 0.0% + bb 0.0%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 14.6× across 18 years, COHR would trade near $6/share (25th–75th percentile: $4–$8); it trades at 678.5× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+11.3%

Rev 5y

+18.0%

Rev 10y

+24.0%

EPS 5y

+11.7%

EPS 10y

+14.8%

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2009–2026, from SEC filings

Revenue

2009: $292.2M
2010: $345.1M
2011: $502.8M
2012: $516.4M
2013: $551.1M
2014: $683.3M
2015: $742.0M
2016: $827.2M
2017: $972.0M
2018: $1.2B
2019: $1.4B
2020: $2.4B
2021: $3.1B
2022: $3.3B
2023: $5.2B
2024: $4.7B
2025: $5.8B
2026: $7.1B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
09
12
15
18
21
24

Net income

2009: $36.8M
2010: $38.6M
2011: $82.7M
2012: $60.3M
2013: $50.8M
2014: $38.4M
2015: $66.0M
2016: $65.5M
2017: $95.3M
2018: $88.0M
2019: $107.5M
2020: −$67.0M
2021: $297.6M
2022: $234.8M
2023: −$259.5M
2024: −$156.2M
2025: $49.4M
2026: $805.0M
$0$500.0M
09
12
15
18
21
24

Free cash flow

2009: $33.4M
2010: $58.6M
2011: $32.6M
2012: $45.3M
2013: $82.4M
2014: $66.2M
2015: $77.1M
2016: $64.8M
2017: −$19.9M
2018: $7.6M
2019: $41.4M
2020: $160.4M
2021: $428.0M
2022: $99.0M
2023: $198.0M
2024: $198.9M
2025: $192.8M
2026: −$1.0B
−$1.0B−$500.0M$0
09
12
15
18
21
24

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2009: 61.5M
2010: 61.5M
2011: 63.6M
2012: 64.4M
2013: 63.9M
2014: 63.7M
2015: 62.6M
2016: 62.9M
2017: 64.5M
2018: 65.1M
2019: 65.8M
2020: 84.8M
2021: 115.0M
2022: 116.5M
2023: 137.6M
2024: 151.6M
2025: 154.8M
2026: 195.4M
050.0M100.0M150.0M
09
12
15
18
21
24

Margins

-10%0%10%091215182124
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2009: $12.9M
2012: $5.0M
2013: $20.0M
2014: $20.0M
2015: $12.7M
2016: $6.3M
2018: $49.9M
2019: $1.6M
2020: $1.6M
2021: $0
2022: $0
$0$20.0M$40.0M
09
12
15
18
21
24

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$2.0B$4.0B091215182124
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q4'23: $1.2B
Q1'24: $1.1B
Q2'24: $1.1B
Q3'24: $1.2B
Q4'24: $1.3B
Q1'25: $1.3B
Q2'25: $1.4B
Q3'25: $1.5B
Q4'25: $1.5B
Q1'26: $1.6B
Q2'26: $1.7B
Q3'26: $1.8B
Q4'26: $2.0B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
24
25
26
26

Net income by quarter

Q4'23: −$178.2M
Q1'24: −$67.5M
Q2'24: −$27.0M
Q3'24: −$13.2M
Q4'24: −$48.4M
Q1'25: $25.9M
Q2'25: $103.4M
Q3'25: $15.7M
Q4'25: −$95.6M
Q1'26: $226.3M
Q2'26: $146.7M
Q3'26: $191.4M
Q4'26: $240.5M
$0$200.0M
23
24
25
26
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q4'26 *$2.0B+33.7%$240.5M1.20$69.5M
Q3'26$1.8B+20.5%$191.4M+1118.3%0.97−$93.8M
Q2'26$1.7B+17.5%$146.7M+41.9%0.76$57.9M
Q1'26$1.6B+17.3%$226.3M+774.4%1.19$46.0M
Q4'25 *$1.5B+16.4%−$95.6M-0.81$130.3M
Q3'25$1.5B+23.9%$15.7M-0.11$163.0M
Q2'25$1.4B+26.8%$103.4M0.44$187.4M
Q1'25$1.3B+28.0%$25.9M-0.04$153.0M
Q4'24 *$1.3B+9.1%−$48.4M-0.52$162.3M
Q3'24$1.2B−2.5%−$13.2M−617.9%-0.29$117.4M
Q2'24$1.1B−17.4%−$27.0M-0.38$67.2M
Q1'24$1.1B−21.7%−$67.5M-0.65$198.8M
Q4'23 *$1.2B+35.9%−$178.2M−508.5%-1.55$181.5M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+11.3%+18.0%+24.0%+19.3%
Operating cash flow−49.9%−32.7%−4.3%+0.5%
Free cash flow+24.9%+3.7%+9.6%+8.3%
EPS (diluted)+29.8%+11.7%+14.8%+8.0%
Equity+29.8%+26.2%+30.1%+22.5%
LT debt−8.8%+19.6%+31.0%+43.0%
Diluted shares+12.4%+11.2%+12.0%+7.8%
Stock price+94.2%+34.3%+29.2%+19.2%

$100, 3 years ago

$732vs $176 in SPY

94.2% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$437vs $181 in SPY

34.3% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$1,300vs $412 in SPY

29.2% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$1,394vs $813 in SPY

19.2% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$64.34

$43.3B created / $673.5M retained

Last 10 years

$41.93

$50.1B created / $1.2B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

0.6%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

0.1%

MC vs 10× OCF

67.85

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

−$1.2B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-2.2%

Share count 5y

+7.0%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 426.2% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of -5.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about -21.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

7 of 19 checks pass · 37%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

4/6

  • Revenue growth

    18.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    11.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    7 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    -32.7% vs 18.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

1/5

  • Net margin

    11.3% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    7.4% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    0.6% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    -14.4% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $79.5M vs NI $805.0M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

2/3

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    na
  • Cash cushion

    36% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    0.29 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $10.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

0/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    7.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na
  • Repurchases are a habit

    3 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

0/3

  • FCF yield

    -1.9% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    67.0 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20267,1188054.12801,103-1,0231861,1623,21410,903195
20255,81049-0.526344411931609093,4995,645155
20244,70896-156-1.845463471991269264,0265,210152
20235,160-37-259-2.936344361981498214,2354,988138
20223,3174142351.45413314990732,5821,8973,616117
20213,1064022982.375741464280711,5921,3133,406115
20202,38039-67-0.792971371602684932,1862,07785
20191,3621491081.63178137412222054431,13366
20181,159137881.35161153850152474191,02465
2017972116951.48119139-201227232290165
201682792651.04123586561021821578263
201574277661.051295277131117415672963
201468346380.60952966201217522267564
201355171510.801082582201218511463664
201251682600.948843455121351358664
2011503831.30734133101491552164
2010345390.63721459-9108341062
2009292370.004916331359632362

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.