MMarketMath

COF

Fast growerQuality: High (80/100)1 red flag

Capital One · Financials · Consumer Finance

$216.27

52w 174.24 – 259.64

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$134.6B

P/E

54.9

P/FCF

5.1

FCF yield

19.4%

ROE

2.2%

Shldr yield

4.2%

div 1.1% + bb 3.0%

What today's price assumes

At $134.6B, the market is pricing in -11.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 10.5% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $640 · $1,035 · $1,290 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 3.0× across 18 years, COF would trade near $134/share (25th–75th percentile: $113–$159); it trades at 4.9× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+14.2%

Rev 5y

+16.6%

Rev 10y

−10.1%

EPS 5y

−4.9%

EPS 10y

−5.5%

FCF 5y

+10.3%

FCF 10y

+10.5%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2008: $13.9B
2009: $13.0B
2010: $16.2B
2011: $16.3B
2012: $21.4B
2013: $22.4B
2014: $22.3B
2015: $23.4B
2016: $25.5B
2017: $27.2B
2018: $3.4B
2019: $3.8B
2020: $3.7B
2021: $4.8B
2022: $5.4B
2023: $5.6B
2024: $5.9B
2025: $8.1B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Net income

2008: −$46.0M
2009: $884.0M
2010: $2.7B
2011: $3.1B
2012: $3.5B
2013: $4.1B
2014: $4.4B
2015: $4.0B
2016: $3.8B
2017: $2.0B
2018: $6.0B
2019: $5.5B
2020: $2.7B
2021: $12.4B
2022: $7.4B
2023: $4.9B
2024: $4.8B
2025: $2.5B
$0$5.0B$10.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Free cash flow

2008: $3.1B
2009: $1.8B
2010: $7.8B
2011: $7.1B
2012: $9.0B
2013: $9.2B
2014: $8.8B
2015: $9.6B
2016: $11.1B
2017: $13.2B
2018: $12.1B
2019: $15.8B
2020: $16.0B
2021: $11.6B
2022: $12.9B
2023: $19.6B
2024: $17.0B
2025: $26.1B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 378.0M
2009: 431.0M
2010: 456.0M
2011: 459.1M
2012: 566.5M
2013: 587.6M
2014: 571.9M
2015: 548.0M
2016: 509.8M
2017: 488.6M
2018: 483.1M
2019: 469.9M
2020: 458.9M
2021: 444.2M
2022: 393.2M
2023: 383.4M
2024: 383.6M
2025: 541.3M
0200.0M400.0M
08
11
14
17
20
23

Margins

0%200%400%081114172023
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2008: $581.0M
2009: $228.0M
2010: $113.0M
2011: $133.0M
2012: $154.0M
2013: $1.6B
2014: $2.7B
2015: $3.3B
2016: $4.5B
2017: $1.0B
2018: $3.1B
2019: $2.2B
2020: $853.0M
2021: $8.8B
2022: $5.9B
2023: $1.6B
2024: $1.7B
2025: $5.6B
$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B
08
11
14
17
20
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$20.0B$40.0B$60.0B081114172023
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q1'23: $1.3B
Q2'23: $1.4B
Q3'23: $1.5B
Q4'23: $1.5B
Q1'24: $1.4B
Q2'24: $1.5B
Q3'24: $1.4B
Q4'24: $1.6B
Q1'25: $1.5B
Q2'25: $1.8B
Q3'25: $2.3B
Q4'25: $2.4B
Q1'26: $2.4B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
23
23
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q1'23: $960.0M
Q2'23: $1.4B
Q3'23: $1.8B
Q4'23: $706.0M
Q1'24: $1.3B
Q2'24: $597.0M
Q3'24: $1.8B
Q4'24: $1.1B
Q1'25: $1.4B
Q2'25: −$4.3B
Q3'25: $3.2B
Q4'25: $2.1B
Q1'26: $2.2B
−$4.0B−$2.0B$0$2.0B
23
23
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q1'26$2.4B+61.9%$2.2B+54.8%3.34$6.0B
Q4'25 *$2.4B+51.9%$2.1B+94.7%4.33$7.8B
Q3'25$2.3B+57.8%$3.2B+79.6%4.83$9.2B
Q2'25$1.8B+25.6%−$4.3B−816.4%-8.58$6.1B
Q1'25$1.5B+7.1%$1.4B+9.7%3.45$4.7B
Q4'24 *$1.6B+9.1%$1.1B+55.2%2.67$2.4B
Q3'24$1.4B−1.9%$1.8B−0.7%4.41$6.5B
Q2'24$1.5B+3.7%$597.0M−58.3%1.38$6.2B
Q1'24$1.4B+8.8%$1.3B+33.3%3.13$3.0B
Q4'23 *$1.5B+8.4%$706.0M−42.7%1.67$7.1B
Q3'23$1.5B+4.2%$1.8B+5.7%4.45$7.1B
Q2'23$1.4B+0.6%$1.4B−29.5%3.52$3.4B
Q1'23$1.3B+3.6%$960.0M−60.0%2.31$3.0B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+14.2%+16.6%−10.1%−4.5%
Operating cash flow+26.1%+10.7%+10.6%+8.5%
Free cash flow+26.6%+10.3%+10.5%+8.4%
EPS (diluted)−39.2%−4.9%−5.5%−2.6%
Equity+29.3%+13.5%+9.2%+10.2%
LT debt+1.4%+4.6%−1.5%+1.4%
Diluted shares+11.2%+3.4%−0.1%+1.1%
Stock price+30.2%+7.2%+13.6%+12.7%

$100, 3 years ago

$220vs $176 in SPY

30.2% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$142vs $181 in SPY

7.2% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$358vs $412 in SPY

13.6% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$599vs $813 in SPY

12.7% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.81

$74.2B created / $26.4B retained

Last 10 years

$2.05

$87.8B created / $42.8B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

16.9%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

22.6%

MC vs 10× OCF

0.49

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.9y

SBC / FCF

3.0%

Owner earnings

$25.4B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

18.8%

Share count 5y

+2.1%

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 45.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 26.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 11.9% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

19 of 24 checks pass · 79%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/7

  • Revenue growth

    16.6% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    -4.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail

  • FCF growth

    10.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    10.7% vs 16.6% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

4/5

  • Net margin

    30.4% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    — · ≥ 10%

    na

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    — · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na

  • Return on equity

    2.2% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    16.9% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    324.2% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $27.7B vs NI $2.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass

  • Cash cushion

    124% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass

  • Leverage

    0.44 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $113.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    — · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    2.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    fail

  • Stock comp restrained

    3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    21% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

3/4

  • FCF yield

    19.4% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    54.9 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    -11.7% vs 10.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    4.2% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Shareholder dilution

Diluted share count has grown by more than 2% per year over ~5 years.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
20258,062——2,4534.0327,7181,57826,1401,5164,09977662,09349,913113,616541
20245,915——4,75011.5918,1591,20416,95593273456943,67144,98960,784384
20235,645——4,88711.9520,57596119,61493171851343,75549,31858,089383
20225,417——7,36017.9113,80993412,8759504,94831431,25647,83252,582393
20214,780——12,39026.9412,31069811,6121,1487,60533122,05442,26661,029444
20203,737——2,7145.1816,69971015,98946039320340,77139,87160,204459
20193,820——5,54611.0516,63988715,7527531,48123913,74948,38358,011470
20183,431——6,01511.8212,97887412,1047732,28417013,48949,50351,668483
201727,237——1,9823.4914,1821,01813,16478024024414,35259,70548,730489
201625,501——3,7516.8911,85677911,0778123,66123912,49359,46847,514510
201523,413——4,0507.0710,1275329,5958162,4411619,04058,13447,284548
201422,290——4,4287.599,3045028,8026792,0452057,47631,37745,053572
201322,384——4,1216.899,9848189,1665551,033240—24,43941,632588
201221,396——3,4926.119,5245608,96411143199—28,76240,425567
201116,279——3,1476.807,4553157,1409142189—32,26229,617459
201016,171——2,7436.018,1423407,8029122149—40,27226,541456
200912,983——8840.742,0822431,83921414146—15,43826,590431
200813,893——-46-0.213,4833563,12756813112——26,611378

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗