MMarketMath

CL

Slow growerQuality: High (77/100)

Colgate-Palmolive · Consumer Staples · Household Products

$92.55

52w 74.55 – 99.33

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$73.8B

P/E

34.1

P/FCF

20.0

FCF yield

5.0%

ROE

3948.1%

Shldr yield

1.7%

div 0.0% + bb 1.7%

What today's price assumes

At $73.8B, the market is pricing in 7.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 4.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.

Simple DCF per-share range: $69 · $74 · $92 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 15.6× across 18 years, CL would trade near $82/share (25th–75th percentile: $64–$91); it trades at 17.6× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+4.3%

Rev 5y

+4.4%

Rev 10y

+2.4%

EPS 5y

−3.5%

EPS 10y

+5.6%

FCF 5y

+1.9%

FCF 10y

+4.9%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $13.8B
2008: $15.3B
2009: $15.3B
2010: $15.6B
2011: $16.7B
2012: $17.1B
2013: $17.4B
2014: $17.3B
2015: $16.0B
2016: $15.2B
2017: $15.5B
2018: $15.5B
2019: $15.7B
2020: $16.5B
2021: $17.4B
2022: $18.0B
2023: $19.5B
2024: $20.1B
2025: $20.4B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $1.7B
2008: $2.0B
2009: $2.3B
2010: $2.2B
2011: $2.4B
2012: $2.5B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.2B
2015: $1.4B
2016: $2.4B
2017: $2.0B
2018: $2.4B
2019: $2.4B
2020: $2.7B
2021: $2.2B
2022: $1.8B
2023: $2.3B
2024: $2.9B
2025: $2.1B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $1.7B
2008: $1.6B
2009: $2.7B
2010: $2.7B
2011: $2.4B
2012: $2.6B
2013: $2.5B
2014: $2.5B
2015: $2.3B
2016: $2.5B
2017: $2.5B
2018: $2.6B
2019: $2.8B
2020: $3.3B
2021: $2.8B
2022: $1.9B
2023: $3.0B
2024: $3.5B
2025: $3.6B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2008: 1.0B
2009: 1.0B
2010: 984.1M
2011: 984.1M
2012: 960.2M
2013: 939.9M
2014: 924.3M
2015: 909.7M
2016: 898.4M
2017: 887.8M
2018: 873.0M
2019: 861.1M
2020: 859.3M
2021: 848.3M
2022: 838.8M
2023: 829.2M
2024: 823.2M
2025: 811.1M
0500.0M1.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

20%40%60%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $1.3B
2008: $1.1B
2009: $1.1B
2010: $2.0B
2011: $1.8B
2012: $1.9B
2013: $1.5B
2014: $1.5B
2015: $1.6B
2016: $1.3B
2017: $1.4B
2018: $1.2B
2019: $1.2B
2020: $1.5B
2021: $1.3B
2022: $1.3B
2023: $1.1B
2024: $1.7B
2025: $1.2B
$0$1.0B$2.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $4.8B
Q3'23: $4.9B
Q4'23: $5.0B
Q1'24: $5.1B
Q2'24: $5.1B
Q3'24: $5.0B
Q4'24: $4.9B
Q1'25: $4.9B
Q2'25: $5.1B
Q3'25: $5.1B
Q4'25: $5.2B
Q1'26: $5.3B
Q2'26: $5.4B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $502.0M
Q3'23: $708.0M
Q4'23: $718.0M
Q1'24: $683.0M
Q2'24: $731.0M
Q3'24: $737.0M
Q4'24: $738.0M
Q1'25: $690.0M
Q2'25: $743.0M
Q3'25: $735.0M
Q4'25: −$36.0M
Q1'26: $646.0M
Q2'26: $693.0M
$0$200.0M$400.0M$600.0M
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$5.4B+4.9%$693.0M−6.7%0.86$995.0M
Q1'26$5.3B+8.4%$646.0M−6.4%0.80$747.0M
Q4'25 *$5.2B+5.8%−$36.0M−104.9%-0.04$1.5B
Q3'25$5.1B+1.9%$735.0M−0.3%0.91$1.3B
Q2'25$5.1B+1.0%$743.0M+1.6%0.91$884.0M
Q1'25$4.9B−3.0%$690.0M+1.0%0.85$600.0M
Q4'24 *$4.9B−0.1%$738.0M+2.8%0.89$1.3B
Q3'24$5.0B+2.4%$737.0M+4.1%0.90$1.2B
Q2'24$5.1B+4.9%$731.0M+45.6%0.89$990.0M
Q1'24$5.1B+6.2%$683.0M+83.6%0.83$681.0M
Q4'23 *$5.0B+6.9%$718.0M+14260.0%0.86$1.1B
Q3'23$4.9B+10.3%$708.0M+14.6%0.86$1.2B
Q2'23$4.8B+7.5%$502.0M−16.7%0.60$722.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+4.3%+4.4%+2.4%+1.8%
Operating cash flow+18.0%+2.5%+3.6%+1.8%
Free cash flow+25.0%+1.9%+4.9%+2.1%
EPS (diluted)+7.3%−3.5%+5.6%+1.1%
Equity−48.7%−40.8%−24.2%−22.9%
LT debt−7.7%−1.3%+1.0%+6.1%
Diluted shares−1.1%−1.1%−1.1%−1.3%
Stock price+10.6%+6.0%+4.7%+7.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$135vs $176 in SPY

10.6% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$134vs $181 in SPY

6.0% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$158vs $412 in SPY

4.7% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$292vs $813 in SPY

7.4% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$1.20

$13.5B created / $11.3B retained

Last 10 years

$1.05

$24.4B created / $23.2B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

60.6%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

5.4%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.73

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

1.9y

SBC / FCF

4.3%

Owner earnings

$3.5B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

4.8%

Share count 5y

−1.4%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

22.9%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.24

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Checklist

17 of 27 checks pass · 63%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/7

  • Revenue growth

    4.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • EPS growth

    -3.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • FCF growth

    1.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Revenue rises consistently

    9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    2.5% vs 4.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

7/7

  • Net margin

    10.5% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    16.2% · ≥ 10%

    pass
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    60.1% vs 57.0% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass
  • Return on equity

    3948.1% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    60.6% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    17.8% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $4.2B vs NI $2.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

2/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    1.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    19% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail
  • Leverage

    127.24 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    fail
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $54.0M · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    fail
  • Interest burden

    8% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

4/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    33% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

1/4

  • FCF yield

    5.0% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    34.1 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    7.7% vs 4.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    fail
  • Shareholder yield

    1.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202520,38212,2513,3062,1322.634,1985643,6341,2101551,2886,87154811
202420,10112,1614,2682,8893.514,1075613,5461,7391351,0967,289212823
202319,45711,3263,9842,3002.773,7457053,0401,1281229668,219609829
202217,96710,2482,8931,7852.132,5566961,8601,3081257758,741401839
202117,42110,3753,3322,1662.553,3255672,7581,3201358327,194609848
202016,47110,0173,8852,6953.143,7194093,3101,4761078887,334743859
201915,6939,3253,5542,3672.753,1333352,7981,2021008837,333117861
201815,5449,2313,6942,4002.753,0564362,6201,2381097266,354-102873
201715,4549,2803,7072,0242.283,0545532,5011,3991271,5356,566-60888
201615,1959,1233,9552,4412.723,1415932,5481,3351231,3156,520-243898
201516,0349,3992,7891,3841.522,9496912,2581,5511259706,246-299910
201417,27710,1093,5572,1802.363,2987572,5411,5301311,0895,6441,145924
201317,42010,2013,5562,2412.383,2046702,5341,5211289624,7492,305940
201217,0859,9323,8892,4722.573,1965652,6311,9431208844,9262,189960
201116,7349,5903,8412,4312.472,8965372,3591,8061228784,4302,375984
201015,5649,2043,4892,2032.243,2115502,6612,0201214902,8152,675984
200915,3279,0083,6152,2912.273,2775752,7021,0631176003,1473,1161,010
200815,3308,6263,1011,9571.902,3026841,6181,0731005553,5851,9231,031
200713,7907,7472,7201,7371.662,2525831,6691,269429

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.