CIEN
Ciena · Information Technology · Communications Equipment
$371.95
52w 89.41 – 637.51
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$52.7B
P/E
450.4
P/FCF
83.5
FCF yield
1.2%
ROE
4.5%
Shldr yield
0.6%
div 0.0% + bb 0.6%
What today's price assumes
At $52.7B, the market is pricing in 27.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 12.8% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $72 · $136 · $170 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 17.4× across 15 years, CIEN would trade near $99/share (25th–75th percentile: $80–$163); it trades at 65.3× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+9.5%
Rev 5y
+6.2%
Rev 10y
+6.9%
EPS 5y
−18.2%
EPS 10y
+23.9%
FCF 5y
+10.1%
FCF 10y
+12.8%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $1.6B | +39.5% | $218.2M | +2333.0% | 1.49 | $259.7M |
| Q1'26 | $1.4B | +33.1% | $150.3M | +237.2% | 1.03 | $227.6M |
| Q4'25 * | $1.4B | +20.3% | $19.5M | −47.4% | 0.13 | $371.1M |
| Q3'25 | $1.2B | +29.4% | $50.3M | +253.5% | 0.35 | $174.3M |
| Q2'25 | $1.1B | +23.6% | $9.0M | — | 0.06 | $156.9M |
| Q1'25 | $1.1B | +3.3% | $44.6M | −10.0% | 0.31 | $103.7M |
| Q4'24 * | $1.1B | −0.5% | $37.0M | −59.4% | 0.26 | $349.4M |
| Q3'24 | $942.3M | −11.8% | $14.2M | −52.1% | 0.10 | −$159.4M |
| Q2'24 | $910.8M | −19.6% | −$16.8M | −129.2% | -0.12 | $58.5M |
| Q1'24 | $1.0B | −1.8% | $49.5M | −35.0% | 0.34 | $266.1M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.1B | +16.3% | $91.2M | +58.2% | 0.62 | $195.5M |
| Q3'23 | $1.1B | +23.0% | $29.7M | +182.8% | 0.20 | $8.7M |
| Q2'23 | $1.1B | +19.3% | $57.7M | +48.1% | 0.38 | $229.8M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +9.5% | +6.2% | +6.9% | +9.4% |
| Operating cash flow | +10.5% | +10.3% | +11.9% | +34.0% |
| Free cash flow | +9.5% | +10.1% | +12.8% | +12.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | −5.3% | −18.2% | +23.9% | +4.2% |
| Equity | +0.2% | +1.7% | +16.0% | +20.9% |
| LT debt | +12.8% | +17.6% | +1.8% | — |
| Diluted shares | −1.5% | −1.4% | +1.9% | +3.0% |
| Stock price | +95.2% | +45.5% | +33.0% | +25.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$744vs $176 in SPY
95.2% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$651vs $181 in SPY
45.5% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,734vs $412 in SPY
33.0% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$3,039vs $813 in SPY
25.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$20.33
$22.7B created / $1.1B retained
Last 10 years
$9.80
$26.7B created / $2.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
19.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
1.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
6.89
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.3y
SBC / FCF
27.7%
Owner earnings
$480.8M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
0.9%
Share count 5y
+1.6%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
—
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.12
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 57.1% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 29.4% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 16.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
16 of 27 checks pass · 59%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
6.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-18.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
10.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
7 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
10.3% vs 6.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/7
- fail
Net margin
2.6% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
4.1% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
42.0% vs 43.0% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
4.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
19.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
13.9% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $806.1M vs NI $123.3M · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
72% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.56 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$2.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
45% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/4
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.6% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
28% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
50% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
1.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
450.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
27.3% vs 12.8% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4,770 | 2,005 | 198 | 123 | 0.85 | 806 | 141 | 665 | — | 335 | 185 | 1,092 | 1,524 | 2,729 | 145 |
| 2024 | 4,015 | 1,720 | 167 | 84 | 0.58 | 515 | 137 | 378 | — | 255 | 156 | 935 | 1,533 | 2,816 | 146 |
| 2023 | 4,387 | 1,879 | 358 | 255 | 1.71 | 168 | 106 | 62 | — | 242 | 130 | 1,011 | 1,543 | 2,848 | 149 |
| 2022 | 3,633 | 1,560 | 223 | 153 | 1.00 | -168 | 91 | -259 | — | 501 | 105 | 994 | 1,061 | 2,713 | 152 |
| 2021 | 3,621 | 1,722 | 495 | 500 | 3.19 | 542 | 80 | 462 | — | 91 | 84 | 1,423 | 670 | 3,020 | 157 |
| 2020 | 3,532 | 1,653 | 487 | 361 | 2.32 | 494 | 83 | 411 | — | 75 | 68 | 1,089 | 676 | 2,510 | 156 |
| 2019 | 3,572 | 1,542 | 347 | 253 | 1.61 | 413 | 63 | 351 | — | 150 | 60 | 904 | 680 | 2,173 | 158 |
| 2018 | 3,094 | 1,315 | 230 | -345 | -2.49 | 229 | 68 | 162 | — | 111 | 53 | 745 | — | 1,929 | 144 |
| 2017 | 2,802 | 1,246 | 215 | 1,262 | 7.53 | 235 | 95 | 140 | — | 0 | 48 | 641 | 584 | 2,136 | 170 |
| 2016 | 2,601 | 1,162 | 156 | 73 | 0.51 | 290 | 107 | 182 | — | 0 | 52 | 778 | 1,017 | 766 | 151 |
| 2015 | 2,446 | 1,076 | 100 | 12 | 0.10 | 262 | 62 | 200 | — | — | 55 | 791 | 1,272 | 621 | 120 |
| 2014 | 2,288 | 948 | 46 | -41 | -0.38 | 90 | 48 | 42 | — | — | 43 | 587 | 1,275 | -70 | 106 |
| 2013 | 2,083 | 865 | -2 | -85 | -0.83 | 45 | 44 | 1 | — | — | 38 | 346 | 1,212 | -83 | 102 |
| 2012 | 1,834 | 724 | -80 | -144 | -1.45 | 107 | 48 | 59 | — | — | 32 | 642 | — | -89 | 99 |
| 2011 | 1,742 | 709 | -163 | -196 | -2.04 | -90 | 52 | -143 | — | — | 38 | 542 | — | 14 | 96 |
| 2010 | 1,237 | 498 | -322 | -334 | -3.58 | -229 | 51 | -280 | — | — | 36 | 689 | — | 159 | 93 |
| 2009 | 653 | 285 | -579 | -581 | -6.37 | 7 | 24 | -17 | — | — | 34 | 486 | — | 456 | 91 |
| 2008 | 902 | 451 | 22 | 39 | 0.42 | 118 | 30 | 88 | — | — | 31 | 551 | — | 999 | 111 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.