CI
Cigna · Health Care · Health Care Services
$280.45
52w 239.51 – 315.47
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$74.1B
P/E
12.3
P/FCF
7.6
FCF yield
13.1%
ROE
14.3%
Shldr yield
7.1%
div 2.2% + bb 4.9%
What today's price assumes
At $74.1B, the market is pricing in -5.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $554 · $970 · $1,210 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 8.2× across 10 years, CI would trade near $296/share (25th–75th percentile: $265–$384); it trades at 7.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+15.0%
Rev 5y
+11.4%
Rev 10y
+23.9%
EPS 5y
−0.7%
EPS 10y
+13.3%
FCF 5y
−1.5%
FCF 10y
+11.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2016–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $71.7B | +6.7% | $1.7B | +8.4% | 6.29 | −$421.0M |
| Q1'26 | $68.5B | +4.6% | $1.7B | +25.0% | 6.26 | $1.1B |
| Q4'25 * | $72.5B | +10.4% | $1.1B | −5.3% | 4.64 | $6.1B |
| Q3'25 | $69.7B | +9.5% | $2.0B | +139.2% | 6.98 | $3.4B |
| Q2'25 | $67.2B | +11.0% | $1.5B | −6.0% | 5.71 | −$1.9B |
| Q1'25 | $65.5B | +14.4% | $1.3B | — | 4.85 | $1.9B |
| Q4'24 * | $65.6B | +28.4% | $1.2B | +32.6% | 5.01 | $5.2B |
| Q3'24 | $63.7B | +29.9% | $825.0M | −43.1% | 2.63 | $46.0M |
| Q2'24 | $60.5B | +24.6% | $1.6B | +7.9% | 5.45 | $265.0M |
| Q1'24 | $57.3B | +23.1% | −$212.0M | −116.2% | -0.97 | $4.8B |
| Q4'23 * | $51.1B | +11.7% | $899.0M | −26.4% | 3.49 | $1.5B |
| Q3'23 | $49.0B | +8.3% | $1.4B | −47.8% | 4.74 | $2.8B |
| Q2'23 | $48.6B | +6.8% | $1.5B | −3.8% | 4.92 | $2.5B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +15.0% | +11.4% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +3.5% | −1.5% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | +3.5% | −1.5% | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +1.2% | −0.7% | — | — |
| Equity | −2.3% | −3.7% | — | — |
| LT debt | +3.2% | +0.9% | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −5.0% | −6.1% | — | — |
| Stock price | +2.4% | +7.8% | +9.2% | +13.5% |
$100, 3 years ago
$107vs $176 in SPY
2.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$145vs $181 in SPY
7.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$242vs $412 in SPY
9.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$666vs $813 in SPY
13.5% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$0.02
$460.5M created / $19.4B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
13.2%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
9.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.76
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.2y
SBC / FCF
3.0%
Owner earnings
$9.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
12.7%
Share count 5y
+0.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
1.3%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$-0.00
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
16 of 26 checks pass · 62%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
4/7
- pass
Revenue growth
11.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
-0.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-1.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-1.5% vs 11.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/6
- fail
Net margin
2.2% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
3.3% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
14.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
13.2% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
3.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $9.6B vs NI $6.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
25% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.74 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$41.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
15% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
54% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
13.1% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
12.3 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-5.7% vs 11.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
7.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 274,900 | — | 9,200 | 5,957 | 22.18 | 9,601 | — | 9,601 | 1,611 | 3,621 | 291 | 7,676 | 30,871 | 41,713 | 269 |
| 2024 | 247,121 | — | 9,417 | 3,434 | 12.12 | 10,363 | — | 10,363 | 1,567 | 7,034 | 308 | 7,550 | 28,937 | 41,033 | 283 |
| 2023 | 195,265 | — | 8,536 | 5,164 | 17.39 | 11,813 | — | 11,813 | 1,450 | 2,284 | 286 | 7,822 | 28,155 | 46,223 | 297 |
| 2022 | 180,518 | — | 8,450 | 6,782 | 21.41 | 8,656 | — | 8,656 | 1,384 | 7,607 | 264 | 5,924 | 28,100 | 44,675 | 313 |
| 2021 | 174,069 | — | 7,941 | 5,420 | 15.75 | 7,191 | — | 7,191 | 1,341 | 7,742 | 268 | 5,081 | 31,125 | 47,112 | 341 |
| 2020 | 160,401 | — | 8,153 | 8,489 | 22.96 | 10,350 | — | 10,350 | 15 | 4,042 | 289 | 10,182 | 29,545 | 50,321 | 368 |
| 2019 | 153,566 | — | 8,077 | 5,120 | 13.44 | 9,485 | 1,050 | 8,435 | 15 | 1,987 | 299 | 4,619 | 31,893 | 45,338 | 380 |
| 2018 | 48,650 | — | 4,160 | 2,646 | 10.54 | 3,770 | 528 | 3,242 | 10 | 342 | 180 | 3,855 | 39,523 | 41,028 | 250 |
| 2017 | 41,806 | — | 3,942 | 2,232 | 8.77 | 4,086 | 471 | 3,615 | 10 | 2,725 | 178 | 2,972 | 5,199 | 13,711 | 255 |
| 2016 | 39,838 | — | 3,088 | 1,843 | 7.19 | 4,026 | 461 | 3,565 | 10 | 139 | 128 | 3,185 | — | 13,703 | 260 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.