CEG
Constellation Energy · Utilities · Electric Utilities
$273.43
52w 228.63 – 412.70
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$96.9B
P/E
40.8
P/FCF
73.4
FCF yield
1.4%
ROE
16.0%
Shldr yield
0.9%
div 0.5% + bb 0.4%
What today's price assumes
At $96.9B, the market is pricing in 25.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth).
Simple DCF per-share range: $55 · $74 · $93 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+1.7%
Rev 5y
+5.2%
Rev 10y
+5.2%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
—
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
—
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2020–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $5.8B | +13.2% | $513.0M | −38.9% | 1.42 | $1.1B |
| Q1'26 | $7.5B | +23.5% | $1.6B | +1247.5% | 4.49 | $425.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $5.7B | +25.8% | $432.0M | −49.3% | 1.38 | $805.0M |
| Q3'25 | $5.7B | +19.5% | $930.0M | −22.5% | 2.97 | $1.8B |
| Q2'25 | $5.2B | +17.1% | $839.0M | +3.1% | 2.67 | $1.5B |
| Q1'25 | $6.1B | +16.1% | $118.0M | −86.6% | 0.38 | $107.0M |
| Q4'24 * | $4.5B | −9.4% | $852.0M | — | 2.71 | −$1.0B |
| Q3'24 | $4.8B | −10.2% | $1.2B | +64.2% | 3.82 | −$112.0M |
| Q2'24 | $4.4B | −6.3% | $814.0M | −2.3% | 2.58 | −$613.0M |
| Q1'24 | $5.3B | −9.8% | $883.0M | +819.8% | 2.78 | −$723.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $5.0B | +11.9% | −$37.0M | −212.1% | -0.10 | −$3.2B |
| Q3'23 | $5.3B | −12.2% | $731.0M | — | 2.26 | −$993.0M |
| Q2'23 | $4.7B | −14.0% | $833.0M | — | 2.56 | −$192.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +1.7% | +5.2% | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | +48.6% | +48.6% | — | — |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | — |
| Equity | +9.6% | −0.2% | — | — |
| LT debt | +17.5% | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | −1.5% | — | — | — |
| Stock price | +38.8% | — | — | — |
$100, 3 years ago
$267vs $176 in SPY
38.8% vs 20.7%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
19.5%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.3%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.23
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
5.6y
SBC / FCF
29.9%
Owner earnings
$903.0M
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.0%
Share count 5y
—
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
99.2%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.53
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
11 of 22 checks pass · 50%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/5
- pass
Revenue growth
5.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
2 of 5 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- fail
FCF consistently positive
1 of 6 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- fail
Profitable every year
4 of 6 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
48.6% vs 5.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
10.2% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
13.6% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
16.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
19.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
5.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.2B vs NI $2.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
5.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
50% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.50 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$14.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
17% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/3
- na
Share count flat or shrinking
— · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
30% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
69% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
3 of 6 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/3
- fail
FCF yield
1.4% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
40.8 · P/E ≤ 25
- na
Price asks less than history delivered
— · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22,663 | — | 3,086 | 2,319 | 7.40 | 4,237 | 2,949 | 1,288 | 486 | 400 | 385 | 3,641 | 7,250 | 14,517 | 314 |
| 2024 | 18,964 | — | 4,352 | 3,749 | 11.89 | -2,464 | 2,565 | -5,029 | 444 | 999 | 332 | 3,022 | 7,384 | 13,166 | 315 |
| 2023 | 20,841 | — | 1,610 | 1,623 | 5.01 | -5,301 | 2,422 | -7,723 | 366 | 992 | 178 | 368 | 7,496 | 10,925 | 324 |
| 2022 | 21,571 | — | 495 | -160 | -0.49 | -2,353 | 1,689 | -4,042 | 185 | 0 | 116 | 422 | 4,466 | 11,018 | 329 |
| 2021 | 17,254 | — | -346 | -205 | 0.00 | -1,338 | 1,329 | -2,667 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 504 | 4,575 | 11,219 | 0 |
| 2020 | 17,603 | — | 256 | 589 | 0.00 | 584 | 1,747 | -1,163 | 0 | — | 27 | 226 | — | 14,676 | 0 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.