CB
Chubb Limited · Financials · Property & Casualty Insurance
$345.83
52w 265.30 – 365.91
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$134.1B
P/E
12.9
P/FCF
10.4
FCF yield
9.6%
ROE
14.0%
Shldr yield
3.9%
div 1.1% + bb 2.8%
What today's price assumes
At $134.1B, the market is pricing in -1.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 12.7% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $504 · $957 · $1,193 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.1× across 18 years, CB would trade near $234/share (25th–75th percentile: $192–$307); it trades at 10.5× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+11.3%
Rev 5y
+10.5%
Rev 10y
+12.1%
EPS 5y
+26.9%
EPS 10y
+11.5%
FCF 5y
+5.5%
FCF 10y
+12.7%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $14.8B | +10.6% | $2.3B | +74.3% | 5.88 | $3.9B |
| Q4'25 * | $15.1B | +6.3% | $3.2B | +24.7% | 8.05 | $4.1B |
| Q3'25 | $16.1B | +8.7% | $2.8B | +20.5% | 6.99 | $3.6B |
| Q2'25 | $14.8B | +7.2% | $3.0B | +33.1% | 7.35 | $3.6B |
| Q1'25 | $13.4B | +3.6% | $1.3B | −37.9% | 3.29 | $1.6B |
| Q4'24 * | $14.2B | +9.1% | $2.6B | −22.0% | 6.31 | $4.6B |
| Q3'24 | $14.8B | +7.2% | $2.3B | +13.8% | 5.70 | $4.3B |
| Q2'24 | $13.8B | +16.9% | $2.2B | +24.4% | 5.46 | $4.1B |
| Q1'24 | $12.9B | +16.6% | $2.1B | +13.3% | 5.23 | $3.2B |
| Q4'23 * | $13.0B | +13.5% | $3.3B | +151.7% | 8.00 | $3.2B |
| Q3'23 | $13.9B | +14.3% | $2.0B | +158.0% | 4.95 | $4.7B |
| Q2'23 | $11.8B | +19.5% | $1.8B | +50.7% | 4.32 | $2.5B |
| Q1'23 | $11.1B | +14.8% | $1.9B | −3.1% | 4.53 | $2.3B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.3% | +10.5% | +12.1% | +9.1% |
| Operating cash flow | +4.4% | +5.5% | +12.7% | +8.9% |
| Free cash flow | +4.4% | +5.5% | +12.7% | +8.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | +27.5% | +26.9% | +11.5% | +7.2% |
| Equity | +13.4% | +4.4% | +9.7% | +8.1% |
| LT debt | +3.0% | +1.0% | +5.3% | +10.8% |
| Diluted shares | −1.8% | −2.4% | +2.0% | +1.1% |
| Stock price | +21.2% | +15.0% | +12.5% | +14.1% |
$100, 3 years ago
$178vs $176 in SPY
21.2% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$201vs $181 in SPY
15.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$324vs $412 in SPY
12.5% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$720vs $813 in SPY
14.1% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$1.77
$62.4B created / $35.3B retained
Last 10 years
$1.90
$92.7B created / $48.7B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
14.3%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
8.8%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.04
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.2y
SBC / FCF
—
Owner earnings
$12.8B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
9.6%
Share count 5y
+1.1%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 22.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 21.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 4.7% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
20 of 23 checks pass · 87%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
10.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
26.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
5.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
9 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
5.5% vs 10.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
17.4% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
14.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
14.3% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
21.6% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $12.8B vs NI $10.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
16% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.21 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$73.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
2/3
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.1% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- na
Stock comp restrained
— · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
41% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
9 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
9.6% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
12.9 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-1.3% vs 12.7% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.9% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59,402 | — | — | 10,310 | 25.68 | 12,816 | — | 12,816 | 1,505 | 3,694 | — | 2,470 | 15,728 | 73,757 | 402 |
| 2024 | 55,753 | — | — | 9,272 | 22.70 | 16,182 | — | 16,182 | 1,436 | 1,801 | — | 2,549 | 14,379 | 64,021 | 408 |
| 2023 | 49,735 | — | — | 9,028 | 21.80 | 12,632 | — | 12,632 | 1,394 | 2,411 | — | 2,621 | 13,035 | 59,507 | 414 |
| 2022 | 43,097 | — | — | 5,246 | 12.39 | 11,258 | — | 11,258 | 1,375 | 2,894 | — | 2,012 | 14,402 | 50,519 | 424 |
| 2021 | 40,869 | — | — | 8,525 | 19.24 | 11,151 | — | 11,151 | 1,401 | 4,861 | — | 1,659 | 15,169 | 58,328 | 443 |
| 2020 | 35,994 | — | — | 3,533 | 7.79 | 9,785 | — | 9,785 | 1,388 | 523 | — | 1,747 | 14,948 | 59,441 | 453 |
| 2019 | 34,186 | — | — | 4,454 | 9.71 | 6,342 | — | 6,342 | 1,354 | 1,530 | — | 1,537 | 13,559 | 55,331 | 459 |
| 2018 | 32,717 | — | — | 3,962 | 8.49 | 5,480 | — | 5,480 | 1,337 | 1,044 | — | 1,247 | 12,087 | 50,312 | 467 |
| 2017 | 32,243 | — | — | 3,861 | 8.19 | 4,503 | — | 4,503 | 1,308 | 801 | — | 728 | 11,556 | 51,172 | 471 |
| 2016 | 31,469 | — | — | 4,135 | 8.87 | 5,292 | — | 5,292 | 1,173 | — | — | 985 | 12,610 | 48,275 | 466 |
| 2015 | 18,987 | — | — | 2,834 | 8.62 | 3,864 | — | 3,864 | 862 | 758 | — | 1,775 | 9,389 | 29,135 | 329 |
| 2014 | 19,171 | — | — | 2,853 | 8.42 | 4,496 | — | 4,496 | 862 | 1,429 | — | 655 | 3,357 | 29,587 | 339 |
| 2013 | 19,261 | — | — | 3,758 | 10.92 | 4,022 | — | 4,022 | 517 | 287 | — | 579 | 3,807 | 28,825 | 344 |
| 2012 | 17,936 | — | — | 2,706 | 7.89 | 3,995 | — | 3,995 | 815 | 11 | — | 615 | 3,360 | 27,531 | 343 |
| 2011 | 16,834 | — | — | 1,540 | 4.52 | 3,470 | — | 3,470 | 459 | 195 | 27 | 614 | 3,360 | 24,332 | 341 |
| 2010 | 16,006 | — | — | 3,085 | 9.04 | 3,546 | — | 3,546 | 435 | 235 | 28 | 772 | 3,358 | 22,835 | 341 |
| 2009 | 15,075 | — | — | 2,549 | 7.55 | 3,335 | — | 3,335 | 388 | — | 27 | 669 | 3,158 | 19,667 | 338 |
| 2008 | 13,632 | — | — | 1,197 | 3.50 | 4,101 | — | 4,101 | 362 | — | — | 867 | 2,806 | 14,446 | 335 |
| 2007 | 14,154 | — | — | 2,578 | 7.63 | 4,701 | — | 4,701 | 341 | — | — | 510 | — | 16,677 | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.