CAT
Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials · Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
$811.02
52w 410.52 – 1,073.46
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$372.8B
P/E
42.0
P/FCF
41.8
FCF yield
2.4%
ROE
41.7%
Shldr yield
2.1%
div 0.7% + bb 1.4%
What today's price assumes
At $372.8B, the market is pricing in 17.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 5.3% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $296 · $326 · $406 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 9.1× across 19 years, CAT would trade near $232/share (25th–75th percentile: $117–$365); it trades at 31.8× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+4.4%
Rev 5y
+10.1%
Rev 10y
+3.7%
EPS 5y
+28.1%
EPS 10y
+16.2%
FCF 5y
+10.8%
FCF 10y
+5.3%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $20.5B | +24.0% | $3.6B | +64.9% | 7.77 | $4.4B |
| Q1'26 | $17.4B | +22.2% | $2.5B | +27.2% | 5.47 | $1.9B |
| Q4'25 * | $19.1B | +18.0% | $2.4B | −13.9% | 5.11 | $3.6B |
| Q3'25 | $17.6B | +9.5% | $2.3B | −6.7% | 4.88 | $3.7B |
| Q2'25 | $16.6B | −0.7% | $2.2B | −18.7% | 4.62 | $3.1B |
| Q1'25 | $14.2B | −9.8% | $2.0B | −29.8% | 4.20 | $1.3B |
| Q4'24 * | $16.2B | −5.0% | $2.8B | +4.4% | 5.76 | $3.4B |
| Q3'24 | $16.1B | −4.2% | $2.5B | −11.8% | 5.06 | $3.6B |
| Q2'24 | $16.7B | −3.6% | $2.7B | −8.3% | 5.48 | $3.0B |
| Q1'24 | $15.8B | −0.4% | $2.9B | +47.0% | 5.75 | $2.1B |
| Q4'23 * | $17.1B | +2.8% | $2.7B | +83.8% | 5.26 | $4.0B |
| Q3'23 | $16.8B | +12.1% | $2.8B | +36.9% | 5.45 | $4.1B |
| Q2'23 | $17.3B | +21.6% | $2.9B | +74.8% | 5.67 | $3.2B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.4% | +10.1% | +3.7% | +3.1% |
| Operating cash flow | +14.8% | +13.2% | +5.8% | +5.8% |
| Free cash flow | +11.3% | +10.8% | +5.3% | +6.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | +14.2% | +28.1% | +16.2% | +10.6% |
| Equity | +10.3% | +6.8% | +3.7% | +4.6% |
| LT debt | +6.1% | +3.4% | +2.0% | +2.7% |
| Diluted shares | −3.8% | −3.0% | −2.4% | −2.1% |
| Stock price | +44.4% | +33.2% | +28.6% | +18.6% |
$100, 3 years ago
$301vs $176 in SPY
44.4% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$419vs $181 in SPY
33.2% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$1,232vs $412 in SPY
28.6% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,286vs $813 in SPY
18.6% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$7.16
$218.2B created / $30.5B retained
Last 10 years
$7.68
$279.8B created / $36.5B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
22.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
3.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
3.18
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.4y
SBC / FCF
2.7%
Owner earnings
$8.7B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.3%
Share count 5y
−1.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
22.4%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.11
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 19.4% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 54.1% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 10.5% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
19 of 25 checks pass · 76%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
10.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
28.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
10.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
13.2% vs 10.1% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
6/6
- pass
Net margin
13.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
16.5% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
41.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
22.6% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
13.2% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $11.7B vs NI $8.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
2/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.4y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
33% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.44 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$21.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-1.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
3% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
89% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
1/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.4% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
42.0 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
17.7% vs 5.3% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
2.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 67,589 | — | 11,151 | 8,882 | 18.81 | 11,739 | 2,821 | 8,918 | 2,749 | 5,190 | 242 | 9,980 | 30,696 | 21,318 | 472 |
| 2024 | 64,809 | — | 13,072 | 10,788 | 22.05 | 12,035 | 1,988 | 10,047 | 2,646 | 7,697 | 223 | 6,889 | 27,351 | 19,494 | 489 |
| 2023 | 67,060 | — | 12,966 | 10,332 | 20.12 | 12,885 | 1,597 | 11,288 | 2,563 | 4,975 | 208 | 6,978 | 24,472 | 19,503 | 514 |
| 2022 | 59,427 | — | 7,904 | 6,704 | 12.64 | 7,766 | 1,296 | 6,470 | 2,440 | 4,230 | 193 | 7,004 | 25,714 | 15,891 | 530 |
| 2021 | 50,971 | — | 6,878 | 6,493 | 11.83 | 7,198 | 1,093 | 6,105 | 2,332 | 2,668 | 200 | 9,254 | 26,033 | 16,516 | 549 |
| 2020 | 41,748 | — | 4,553 | 3,003 | 5.46 | 6,327 | 978 | 5,349 | 2,243 | 1,130 | 202 | 9,352 | 25,999 | 15,378 | 549 |
| 2019 | 53,800 | — | 8,290 | 6,094 | 10.74 | 6,912 | 1,056 | 5,856 | 2,132 | 4,047 | 205 | 8,292 | 26,281 | 14,629 | 568 |
| 2018 | 54,722 | — | 8,293 | 6,148 | 10.26 | 6,558 | 1,276 | 5,282 | 1,951 | 3,798 | 197 | 7,890 | 25,000 | 14,080 | 599 |
| 2017 | 45,462 | — | 4,460 | 759 | 1.26 | 5,706 | 898 | 4,808 | 1,831 | 0 | 206 | 8,320 | 23,847 | 13,766 | 599 |
| 2016 | 38,537 | — | 1,162 | -59 | -0.11 | 5,639 | 1,109 | 4,530 | 1,799 | 0 | 218 | 7,199 | 22,818 | 13,228 | 584 |
| 2015 | 47,011 | — | 3,785 | 2,523 | 4.18 | 6,699 | 1,388 | 5,311 | 1,757 | 2,025 | 283 | 6,511 | 25,169 | 14,885 | 601 |
| 2014 | 55,184 | — | 3,314 | 2,468 | 3.90 | 8,057 | 1,539 | 6,518 | 1,620 | 4,238 | 254 | — | 27,784 | 16,826 | 629 |
| 2013 | 55,656 | — | 5,628 | 3,803 | 5.75 | 10,191 | 2,522 | 7,669 | 1,111 | 2,000 | 231 | — | 26,719 | 20,878 | 659 |
| 2012 | 65,875 | — | 8,573 | 5,722 | 8.48 | 5,184 | 3,350 | 1,834 | 1,617 | 0 | 245 | — | 27,752 | 17,582 | 670 |
| 2011 | 60,138 | — | 7,153 | 4,981 | 7.40 | 6,957 | 2,515 | 4,442 | 1,159 | 0 | 193 | — | 24,944 | 12,929 | 666 |
| 2010 | 42,588 | — | 3,963 | 2,700 | 4.15 | 5,009 | 1,575 | 3,434 | 1,084 | — | 226 | — | 20,437 | 10,864 | 650 |
| 2009 | 32,396 | — | 577 | 895 | 1.43 | 6,499 | 1,504 | 4,995 | 1,029 | 0 | 132 | 4,867 | 21,847 | 8,820 | 626 |
| 2008 | 51,324 | — | 4,448 | 3,557 | 5.66 | 4,672 | 2,320 | 2,352 | 953 | 1,800 | 194 | 2,736 | 22,834 | 6,190 | 628 |
| 2007 | 44,958 | — | 4,921 | 3,541 | 5.37 | 7,955 | 1,700 | 6,255 | 845 | 2,405 | — | 1,122 | — | 8,980 | 660 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.