CAH
Cardinal Health · Health Care · Health Care Distributors
$238.08
52w 151.87 – 258.30
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$55.4B
P/E
32.2
P/FCF
12.2
FCF yield
8.2%
ROE
-59.5%
Shldr yield
3.3%
div 0.9% + bb 2.5%
What today's price assumes
At $55.4B, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 6.1% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $297 · $345 · $431 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.1× across 19 years, CAH would trade near $157/share (25th–75th percentile: $119–$182); it trades at 10.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+7.4%
Rev 5y
+9.4%
Rev 10y
+7.7%
EPS 5y
+28.3%
EPS 10y
+5.3%
FCF 5y
+17.4%
FCF 10y
+6.1%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2026, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $65.6B | +18.8% | $467.0M | +16.8% | — | $686.0M |
| Q1'26 | $64.0B | +22.4% | $450.0M | +8.2% | 1.88 | $973.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $60.2B | +0.5% | $239.0M | +1.7% | — | $1.5B |
| Q3'25 | $54.9B | +0.0% | $506.0M | +93.9% | — | $2.9B |
| Q2'25 | $55.3B | −3.8% | $400.0M | +8.7% | — | −$396.0M |
| Q1'25 | $52.3B | −4.3% | $416.0M | — | 1.70 | −$1.6B |
| Q4'24 * | $59.9B | +12.1% | $235.0M | — | 0.93 | $2.1B |
| Q3'24 | $54.9B | +8.7% | $261.0M | −28.5% | 1.07 | −$27.0M |
| Q2'24 | $57.4B | +11.6% | $368.0M | — | 1.50 | $1.2B |
| Q1'24 | $54.6B | +10.2% | −$12.0M | −112.2% | -0.05 | $528.0M |
| Q4'23 * | $53.4B | +13.5% | −$56.0M | −142.1% | -0.21 | $863.0M |
| Q3'23 | $50.5B | +12.6% | $365.0M | — | 1.41 | $1.4B |
| Q2'23 | $51.5B | +13.2% | −$77.0M | −257.1% | -0.30 | $597.0M |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +7.4% | +9.4% | +7.7% | +6.2% |
| Operating cash flow | +22.1% | +16.3% | +5.7% | +9.1% |
| Free cash flow | +24.2% | +17.4% | +6.1% | +9.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | +79.0% | +28.3% | +5.3% | +6.7% |
| Equity | −33.4% | −22.9% | −11.2% | — |
| LT debt | +21.5% | +5.5% | +3.5% | +7.1% |
| Diluted shares | −3.3% | −4.2% | −3.3% | −2.6% |
| Stock price | +39.7% | +40.6% | +16.4% | +14.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$272vs $192 in SPY
39.7% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$550vs $181 in SPY
40.6% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$455vs $428 in SPY
16.4% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$784vs $803 in SPY
14.7% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$40.86
$38.9B created / $951.0M retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
125.6%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
9.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.07
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.5y
SBC / FCF
8.1%
Owner earnings
$4.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
7.5%
Share count 5y
−2.4%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
1.2%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.01
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
21 of 27 checks pass · 78%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
7/7
- pass
Revenue growth
9.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
28.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
17.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
16.3% vs 9.4% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/7
- fail
Net margin
0.7% · ≥ 8%
- fail
Operating margin
1.0% · ≥ 10%
- pass
Gross margin stable or rising
3.8% vs 3.4% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-59.5% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
125.6% · ≥ 12%
- fail
FCF margin
1.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $5.2B vs NI $1.7B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.5y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
69% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-2.43 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$2.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
13% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.4% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
41% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
8.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
32.2 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
0.9% vs 6.1% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.3% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 254,248 | 9,774 | 2,613 | 1,714 | 7.23 | 5,174 | 649 | 4,525 | 491 | 1,358 | 367 | 4,856 | 7,004 | -2,883 | 237 |
| 2025 | 222,578 | 8,168 | 2,275 | 1,561 | 6.45 | 2,397 | 547 | 1,850 | 494 | 765 | 244 | 3,874 | 7,977 | -2,781 | 242 |
| 2024 | 226,827 | 7,414 | 1,243 | 852 | 3.45 | 3,762 | 511 | 3,251 | 499 | 750 | 121 | 5,133 | 4,658 | -3,213 | 247 |
| 2023 | 204,979 | 6,874 | 752 | 330 | 1.26 | 2,844 | 481 | 2,363 | 525 | 2,000 | 96 | 4,076 | 3,909 | -2,958 | 262 |
| 2022 | 181,326 | 6,484 | -607 | -938 | -3.37 | 3,175 | 387 | 2,788 | 559 | 1,000 | 81 | 4,717 | 4,735 | -709 | 279 |
| 2021 | 162,467 | 6,778 | 472 | 611 | 2.08 | 2,429 | 400 | 2,029 | 573 | 200 | 89 | 3,407 | 5,365 | 1,791 | 294 |
| 2020 | 152,922 | 6,868 | -4,098 | -3,696 | -12.61 | 1,960 | 375 | 1,585 | 569 | 350 | 90 | 2,771 | 6,765 | 1,789 | 293 |
| 2019 | 145,534 | 6,834 | 2,060 | 1,363 | 4.53 | 2,722 | 328 | 2,394 | 577 | 600 | 82 | 2,531 | 7,579 | 6,328 | 301 |
| 2018 | 136,809 | 7,181 | 126 | 256 | 0.81 | 2,768 | 384 | 2,384 | 581 | 550 | 85 | 1,763 | 8,012 | 6,059 | 315 |
| 2017 | 129,976 | 6,544 | 2,120 | 1,288 | 4.03 | 1,184 | 387 | 797 | 577 | 600 | 96 | 6,879 | 9,068 | 6,808 | 320 |
| 2016 | 121,546 | 6,543 | 2,459 | 1,427 | 4.32 | 2,971 | 465 | 2,506 | 512 | 651 | 111 | 2,356 | 4,952 | 6,554 | 330 |
| 2015 | 102,531 | 5,712 | 2,161 | 1,215 | 3.62 | 2,540 | 300 | 2,240 | 460 | 1,036 | 110 | 4,616 | 5,211 | 6,256 | 335 |
| 2014 | 91,084 | 5,161 | 1,885 | 1,166 | 3.38 | 2,524 | 249 | 2,275 | 415 | 673 | 96 | 2,865 | 3,171 | 6,401 | 345 |
| 2013 | 101,093 | 4,921 | 996 | 334 | 0.97 | 1,727 | 195 | 1,532 | 353 | 450 | 93 | 1,901 | 3,686 | 5,975 | 344 |
| 2012 | 107,552 | 4,541 | 1,792 | 1,069 | 3.06 | 1,176 | 260 | 916 | 300 | 450 | 85 | 2,274 | 2,418 | 6,244 | 349 |
| 2011 | 102,644 | 4,162 | 1,514 | 959 | 2.72 | 1,395 | 291 | 1,104 | 274 | 270 | 80 | 1,929 | 2,502 | 5,849 | 353 |
| 2010 | 98,503 | 3,781 | 1,307 | 642 | 1.77 | 2,134 | 260 | 1,874 | 253 | 230 | 100 | 2,755 | 2,129 | 5,276 | 361 |
| 2009 | 95,992 | 3,748 | 1,287 | 1,152 | 3.18 | 1,424 | 421 | 1,003 | 200 | 0 | 110 | 1,221 | 3,638 | 8,725 | 362 |
| 2008 | 87,408 | 3,777 | 1,392 | 1,301 | 3.57 | 1,542 | — | 1,542 | 173 | 1,182 | 108 | 809 | — | 7,748 | 364 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.