MMarketMath

C

Slow growerQuality: Medium (56/100)1 red flag

Citigroup · Financials · Diversified Banks

$131.72

52w 92.96 – 147.96

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$230.4B

P/E

16.8

P/FCF

FCF yield

-30.8%

ROE

6.7%

Shldr yield

7.7%

div 2.2% + bb 5.5%

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 2.3× across 10 years, C would trade near $33/share (25th–75th percentile: $26–$40); it trades at 9.2× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+4.2%

Rev 5y

+2.5%

Rev 10y

+1.1%

EPS 5y

+8.2%

EPS 10y

+2.6%

FCF 5y

FCF 10y

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $77.3B
2008: $51.6B
2009: $80.3B
2010: $86.6B
2011: $77.3B
2012: $69.2B
2013: $76.7B
2014: $77.2B
2015: $76.4B
2016: $70.8B
2017: $72.4B
2018: $72.9B
2019: $75.1B
2020: $75.5B
2021: $71.9B
2022: $75.3B
2023: $78.1B
2024: $80.7B
2025: $85.2B
$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: $3.6B
2008: −$27.7B
2009: −$1.6B
2010: $10.6B
2011: $11.1B
2012: $7.5B
2013: $13.7B
2014: $7.3B
2015: $17.2B
2016: $14.9B
2017: −$6.8B
2018: $18.0B
2019: $19.4B
2020: $11.0B
2021: $22.0B
2022: $14.8B
2023: $9.2B
2024: $12.7B
2025: $14.3B
−$20.0B$0$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: −$75.6B
2008: $93.9B
2009: −$56.9B
2010: $33.3B
2011: $61.3B
2012: −$14.0B
2013: $59.8B
2014: $43.0B
2015: $36.5B
2016: $51.0B
2017: −$12.1B
2018: $33.2B
2019: −$18.2B
2020: −$26.9B
2021: $43.0B
2022: $19.4B
2023: −$80.0B
2024: −$26.2B
2025: −$74.2B
−$50.0B$0$50.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 2.5B
2008: 3.0B
2009: 3.0B
2010: 3.0B
2011: 3.0B
2012: 3.0B
2013: 3.0B
2014: 3.0B
2015: 3.0B
2016: 2.9B
2017: 2.7B
2018: 2.5B
2019: 2.3B
2020: 2.1B
2021: 2.0B
2022: 2.0B
2023: 2.0B
2024: 1.9B
2025: 1.9B
01.0B2.0B3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-100%0%100%200%07101316192225
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2007: $11.4B
2008: $7.5B
2009: $3.2B
2010: $15.0M
2011: $108.0M
2012: $148.0M
2013: $1.2B
2014: $1.9B
2015: $6.7B
2016: $11.6B
2017: $18.3B
2018: $19.5B
2019: $23.0B
2020: $8.3B
2021: $12.8B
2022: $8.3B
2023: $7.2B
2024: $7.7B
2025: $18.6B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$200.0B$300.0B$400.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q4'22: $18.0B
Q1'23: $21.4B
Q2'23: $19.4B
Q3'23: $20.1B
Q4'23: $17.0B
Q1'24: $21.0B
Q2'24: $20.0B
Q3'24: $20.2B
Q4'24: $19.5B
Q1'25: $21.6B
Q2'25: $21.7B
Q3'25: $22.1B
Q4'25: $19.9B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
22
23
24
25
25

Net income by quarter

Q4'22: $2.5B
Q1'23: $4.6B
Q2'23: $2.9B
Q3'23: $3.5B
Q4'23: −$1.8B
Q1'24: $3.4B
Q2'24: $3.2B
Q3'24: $3.2B
Q4'24: $2.9B
Q1'25: $4.1B
Q2'25: $4.0B
Q3'25: $3.8B
Q4'25: $2.5B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
22
23
24
25
25
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q4'25 *$19.9B+2.1%$2.5B−13.5%1.21$26.6B
Q3'25$22.1B+9.3%$3.8B+15.9%1.86$1.1B
Q2'25$21.7B+8.2%$4.0B+24.9%1.96−$36.6B
Q1'25$21.6B+2.8%$4.1B+20.6%1.96−$58.7B
Q4'24 *$19.5B+14.2%$2.9B1.33$24.8B
Q3'24$20.2B+0.3%$3.2B−8.7%1.51−$16.7B
Q2'24$20.0B+3.1%$3.2B+10.4%1.52−$17.0B
Q1'24$21.0B−2.0%$3.4B−26.8%1.58−$10.8B
Q4'23 *$17.0B−5.3%−$1.8B−173.2%-1.11−$4.7B
Q3'23$20.1B+8.8%$3.5B+1.9%1.63$15.8B
Q2'23$19.4B−1.0%$2.9B−35.9%1.33−$54.1B
Q1'23$21.4B+11.8%$4.6B+7.0%2.19−$30.5B
Q4'22 *$18.0B+5.8%$2.5B−20.8%1.16$12.8B

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+4.2%+2.5%+1.1%−0.1%
Operating cash flow−9.2%−11.9%−8.3%
Free cash flow−12.5%−14.8%−9.9%
EPS (diluted)−0.0%+8.2%+2.6%+4.6%
Equity+1.8%+1.3%−0.4%+1.8%
LT debt+5.2%+3.1%+4.6%−1.2%
Diluted shares−1.6%−2.3%−4.6%−3.0%
Stock price+51.8%+16.8%+14.1%+12.4%

$100, 3 years ago

$350vs $176 in SPY

51.8% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$217vs $181 in SPY

16.8% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$373vs $412 in SPY

14.1% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$580vs $813 in SPY

12.4% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$2.39

$112.4B created / $47.0B retained

Last 10 years

$1.46

$119.2B created / $81.7B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

-12.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

MC vs 10× OCF

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

SBC / FCF

Owner earnings

−$74.2B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

-30.8%

Share count 5y

−1.7%

per year; negative = buybacks

Checklist

11 of 19 checks pass · 58%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

3/6

  • Revenue growth

    2.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    fail
  • EPS growth

    8.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na
  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass
  • FCF consistently positive

    4 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    fail
  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    -11.9% vs 2.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    fail

Profitability

1/5

  • Net margin

    16.8% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    6.7% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • Cash ROIC

    -12.8% · ≥ 12%

    fail
  • FCF margin

    -87.0% · ≥ 5%

    fail
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF −$67.6B vs NI $14.3B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    fail

Balance Sheet

3/3

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    na
  • Cash cushion

    111% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    1.49 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $212.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

2/2

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    -1.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass
  • Stock comp restrained

    · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    na
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    na
  • Repurchases are a habit

    10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

2/3

  • FCF yield

    -30.8% · ≥ 3%

    fail
  • Earnings multiple

    16.8 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    na
  • Shareholder yield

    7.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Red flags

Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict

Negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow did not cover capital expenditures in the latest fiscal year.

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202585,22514,3066.99-67,6326,520-74,1525,37213,250349,579315,827212,2911,873
202480,72212,6825.94-19,6696,500-26,1695,1992,474276,532287,300208,5981,940
202378,0669,2284.04-73,4166,583-79,9995,2121,977260,932286,619205,4531,956
202275,33814,8457.0025,0695,63219,4375,0033,250342,025271,606201,1891,964
202171,88421,95210.1447,0904,11942,9715,1987,601262,033254,374201,9722,049
202075,50111,0474.72-23,4883,446-26,9345,3522,925309,615271,686199,4422,099
201975,06719,4018.04-12,8375,336-18,1735,44717,571193,919248,760193,2422,265
201872,85418,0456.6836,9523,77433,1785,02014,433188,105231,999196,2202,495
201772,444-6,798-2.98-8,7743,361-12,1353,79714,541180,516236,709200,7402,699
201670,79714,9124.7253,7332,75650,9772,2879,290160,494206,178225,1202,888
201576,35417,2425.4039,7373,19836,5391,2535,452133,097201,275221,8573,008
201477,2197,3102.2046,3433,38642,9576331,232223,080210,1853,037
201376,72413,6594.3463,2443,49059,754314837221,116204,3393,042
201269,1907,5412.44-10,3623,604-13,96614351,665239,463189,0493,016
201177,33111,0673.6364,7953,44861,34710711,630323,505177,8062,999
201086,60110,6023.5435,6862,36333,323961,937381,183163,4682,968
200980,285-1,606-3.26-54,6102,264-56,8743,23733,822364,019152,7002,968
200851,599-27,684-10.9497,6863,78093,9067,52673,290359,593141,6302,968
200777,3003,6171.30-71,5514,003-75,55410,778663118,7552,533

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.