BX
Blackstone Inc. · Financials · Asset Management & Custody Banks
$143.64
52w 101.73 – 190.09
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$107.8B
P/E
35.6
P/FCF
23.7
FCF yield
4.2%
ROE
34.8%
Shldr yield
5.6%
div 5.6% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $107.8B, the market is pricing in 10.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 6.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $92 · $114 · $142 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 20.2× across 13 years, BX would trade near $125/share (25th–75th percentile: $90–$168); it trades at 23.1× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+19.3%
Rev 5y
+18.8%
Rev 10y
+12.0%
EPS 5y
+20.9%
EPS 10y
+21.0%
FCF 5y
+20.0%
FCF 10y
+6.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $5.0B | +35.9% | $1.2B | +60.8% | 1.54 | $1.9B |
| Q1'26 | $3.6B | +10.0% | $649.7M | +5.7% | 0.83 | $991.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $4.4B | +41.4% | $1.0B | +44.2% | 1.29 | $1.1B |
| Q3'25 | $3.1B | −15.7% | $624.9M | −20.0% | 0.80 | $1.6B |
| Q2'25 | $3.7B | +32.7% | $764.2M | +72.0% | 0.98 | $888.5M |
| Q1'25 | $3.3B | −10.8% | $614.9M | −27.4% | 0.80 | $1.1B |
| Q4'24 * | $3.1B | +139.9% | $703.9M | +363.7% | 0.91 | $161.4M |
| Q3'24 | $3.7B | +44.1% | $780.8M | +41.5% | 1.02 | $1.2B |
| Q2'24 | $2.8B | −0.7% | $444.4M | −26.1% | 0.58 | $1.2B |
| Q1'24 | $3.7B | +166.9% | $847.4M | +887.5% | 1.11 | $939.8M |
| Q4'23 * | $1.3B | −24.6% | $151.8M | −72.8% | 0.21 | $895.7M |
| Q3'23 | $2.5B | +140.2% | $552.0M | +23941.6% | 0.73 | $1.1B |
| Q2'23 | $2.8B | +347.3% | $601.3M | — | 0.79 | $1.7B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +19.3% | +18.8% | +12.0% | +10.8% |
| Operating cash flow | −9.7% | +19.2% | +6.9% | +16.4% |
| Free cash flow | −9.3% | +20.0% | +6.9% | +16.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | +17.9% | +20.9% | +21.0% | — |
| Equity | +4.2% | +5.4% | — | — |
| LT debt | +0.2% | +17.0% | +6.4% | — |
| Diluted shares | +1.7% | +2.3% | −9.6% | −3.2% |
| Stock price | +14.1% | +6.4% | +23.4% | +22.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$149vs $176 in SPY
14.1% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$136vs $181 in SPY
6.4% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$817vs $412 in SPY
23.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$2,203vs $813 in SPY
22.9% vs 15.0%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
22.0%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
4.0%
MC vs 10× OCF
2.31
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
2.8y
SBC / FCF
31.8%
Owner earnings
$3.1B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
2.9%
Share count 5y
−3.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 36.5% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 33.2% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 12.1% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
17 of 24 checks pass · 71%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- pass
Revenue growth
18.8% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
20.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
20.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
5 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
19.2% vs 18.8% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
20.9% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
34.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
22.0% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
31.5% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $4.7B vs NI $3.0B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/4
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
2.8y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
21% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
1.45 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$8.7B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-3.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
32% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- fail
Distributions funded by FCF
132% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- fail
Repurchases are a habit
0 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
2/4
- pass
FCF yield
4.2% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
35.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
10.0% vs 6.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
5.6% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Distributions exceed FCF
Dividends plus buybacks exceeded free cash flow in the latest fiscal year.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14,450 | — | — | 3,019 | 3.87 | 4,663 | 116 | 4,547 | 6,013 | — | 1,445 | 2,631 | 12,577 | 8,666 | 780 |
| 2024 | 13,230 | — | — | 2,777 | 3.62 | 3,482 | 61 | 3,420 | 4,424 | — | 1,168 | 1,972 | 11,460 | 8,212 | 767 |
| 2023 | 8,023 | — | — | 1,391 | 1.84 | 4,057 | 224 | 3,833 | 4,268 | — | 988 | 2,956 | 11,606 | 6,817 | 755 |
| 2022 | 8,518 | — | — | 1,748 | 2.36 | 6,336 | 235 | 6,101 | 6,519 | — | 846 | 4,252 | 12,491 | 7,656 | 741 |
| 2021 | 22,577 | — | — | 5,857 | 8.13 | 3,986 | 64 | 3,922 | 4,603 | — | 637 | 2,120 | 7,856 | 9,423 | 720 |
| 2020 | 6,102 | — | — | 1,045 | 1.50 | 1,936 | 112 | 1,824 | 2,386 | — | 438 | 1,999 | 5,732 | 6,652 | 697 |
| 2019 | 7,338 | — | — | 2,050 | 3.03 | 1,963 | 60 | 1,903 | 2,397 | — | 417 | 2,172 | 11,542 | 7,010 | 676 |
| 2018 | 6,833 | — | — | 1,542 | 2.26 | 46 | 18 | 27 | 3,046 | — | 367 | 2,208 | 10,395 | 6,379 | 1,207 |
| 2017 | 7,145 | — | — | 1,471 | 1.22 | -1,626 | 24 | -1,651 | 2,843 | — | 339 | 1,992 | 15,167 | — | 1,207 |
| 2016 | 5,146 | — | — | 1,039 | 0.86 | -89 | 22 | -110 | — | — | 324 | 1,837 | 8,941 | — | 2,165 |
| 2015 | 4,647 | — | — | 710 | 0.57 | 2,397 | 59 | 2,338 | — | — | 630 | 1,837 | 6,732 | — | 2,152 |
| 2014 | 7,485 | — | — | 1,585 | 0.74 | 1,655 | 30 | 1,625 | — | — | 735 | 1,412 | 9,476 | — | 2,152 |
| 2013 | 6,613 | — | — | 1,171 | 0.56 | 3,548 | 26 | 3,522 | — | — | 855 | 832 | — | — | 2,073 |
| 2012 | 4,019 | — | — | 219 | 0.12 | 583 | 37 | 546 | — | — | 950 | 710 | — | — | 1,891 |
| 2011 | 3,253 | — | — | -168 | -0.10 | 1,100 | 36 | 1,063 | — | — | 1,396 | 755 | — | — | 1,669 |
| 2010 | 3,119 | — | — | -370 | -0.29 | -372 | 54 | -426 | — | — | 2,440 | 589 | — | — | 1,278 |
| 2009 | 1,774 | — | — | -2,391 | — | 412 | 24 | 388 | — | — | 3,048 | 952 | — | — | — |
| 2008 | -349 | — | — | -5,594 | — | 1,890 | 50 | 1,840 | — | — | 3,303 | 504 | — | — | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.