MMarketMath

BSX

Fast growerQuality: Medium (69/100)

Boston Scientific · Health Care · Health Care Equipment

$49.01

52w 42.20 – 109.50

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$71.0B

P/E

25.2

P/FCF

20.0

FCF yield

5.0%

ROE

11.9%

Shldr yield

0.0%

div 0.0% + bb 0.0%

What today's price assumes

At $71.0B, the market is pricing in 7.7% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 23.5% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $38 · $86 · $124 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Historical multiple lens

At its own median P/OCF of 30.8× across 19 years, BSX would trade near $96/share (25th–75th percentile: $50–$105); it trades at 15.7× today.

Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+16.5%

Rev 5y

+15.2%

Rev 10y

+9.5%

EPS 5y

—

EPS 10y

—

FCF 5y

+26.4%

FCF 10y

+23.5%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2007: $8.4B
2008: $8.1B
2009: $8.2B
2010: $7.8B
2011: $7.6B
2012: $7.0B
2013: $7.1B
2014: $7.5B
2015: $8.1B
2016: $8.4B
2017: $9.0B
2018: $9.8B
2019: $10.7B
2020: $9.9B
2021: $11.9B
2022: $12.7B
2023: $14.2B
2024: $16.7B
2025: $20.1B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Net income

2007: −$495.0M
2008: −$2.0B
2009: −$1.0B
2010: −$1.1B
2011: $441.0M
2012: −$4.1B
2013: −$121.0M
2014: −$119.0M
2015: −$239.0M
2016: $347.0M
2017: $104.0M
2018: $1.7B
2019: $4.7B
2020: −$82.0M
2021: $1.0B
2022: $698.0M
2023: $1.6B
2024: $1.8B
2025: $2.9B
−$2.5B$0$2.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Free cash flow

2007: $571.0M
2008: $854.0M
2009: $523.0M
2010: $53.0M
2011: $704.0M
2012: $1.1B
2013: $865.0M
2014: $1.0B
2015: $444.0M
2016: $806.0M
2017: $1.1B
2018: −$6.0M
2019: $1.4B
2020: $1.1B
2021: $1.3B
2022: $938.0M
2023: $1.8B
2024: $2.6B
2025: $3.7B
$0$1.0B$2.0B$3.0B
07
11
15
19
23

Diluted shares (lower is better)

2007: 1.5B
2008: 1.5B
2009: 1.5B
2010: 1.5B
2011: 1.5B
2012: 1.4B
2013: 1.3B
2014: 1.3B
2015: 1.3B
2016: 1.4B
2017: 1.4B
2018: 1.4B
2019: 1.4B
2020: 1.4B
2021: 1.4B
2022: 1.4B
2023: 1.5B
2024: 1.5B
2025: 1.5B
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
07
11
15
19
23

Margins

-50%0%50%07101316192225
Net marginFCF marginGross margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2011: $492.0M
2012: $600.0M
2013: $500.0M
2014: $125.0M
2015: $0
2016: $0
2018: $0
2019: $0
2020: $563.0M
2021: $55.0M
2022: $55.0M
2023: $28.0M
2024: $0
$0$200.0M$400.0M$600.0M
07
11
15
19
23

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$5.0B$10.0B07101316192225
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $3.6B
Q3'23: $3.5B
Q4'23: $3.7B
Q1'24: $3.9B
Q2'24: $4.1B
Q3'24: $4.2B
Q4'24: $4.6B
Q1'25: $4.7B
Q2'25: $5.1B
Q3'25: $5.1B
Q4'25: $5.3B
Q1'26: $5.2B
Q2'26: $5.4B
$0$2.0B$4.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $270.0M
Q3'23: $504.0M
Q4'23: $504.0M
Q1'24: $493.0M
Q2'24: $322.0M
Q3'24: $468.0M
Q4'24: $563.0M
Q1'25: $672.0M
Q2'25: $795.0M
Q3'25: $755.0M
Q4'25: $670.0M
Q1'26: $1.3B
Q2'26: $905.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$5.4B+7.5%$905.0M+13.8%0.61$1.5B
Q1'26$5.2B+11.6%$1.3B+99.3%0.90$348.0M
Q4'25 *$5.3B+15.8%$670.0M+19.0%0.45$1.4B
Q3'25$5.1B+20.3%$755.0M+61.3%0.51$1.3B
Q2'25$5.1B+22.8%$795.0M+146.9%0.53$1.3B
Q1'25$4.7B+20.9%$672.0M+36.3%0.45$541.0M
Q4'24 *$4.6B+22.5%$563.0M+11.7%0.38$1.5B
Q3'24$4.2B+19.3%$468.0M−7.1%0.32$1.0B
Q2'24$4.1B+14.5%$322.0M+19.3%0.22$813.0M
Q1'24$3.9B+13.8%$493.0M+57.0%0.33$164.0M
Q4'23 *$3.7B+14.9%$504.0M+260.0%0.34$957.0M
Q3'23$3.5B+11.3%$504.0M+168.1%0.34$698.0M
Q2'23$3.6B+10.9%$270.0M+3.8%0.18$658.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+16.5%+15.2%+9.5%+6.5%
Operating cash flow+43.8%+24.6%+20.7%+19.2%
Free cash flow+57.4%+26.4%+23.5%+32.6%
EPS (diluted)+62.8%−8.6%+14.5%—
Equity+11.3%+9.6%+14.4%+5.2%
LT debt+7.7%+4.1%+7.0%+4.9%
Diluted shares+1.3%+1.1%+1.1%−0.1%
Stock price−3.1%+1.7%+7.5%+14.1%

$100, 3 years ago

$91vs $176 in SPY

-3.1% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$109vs $181 in SPY

1.7% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$206vs $412 in SPY

7.5% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$723vs $813 in SPY

14.1% vs 15.0%/yr

The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)

Last 5 years

$11.29

$89.6B created / $7.9B retained

Last 10 years

$7.94

$116.3B created / $14.6B retained

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

12.8%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

5.5%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.61

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

3.0y

SBC / FCF

8.2%

Owner earnings

$3.4B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

4.6%

Share count 5y

+0.0%

per year; negative = buybacks

Capital intensity

20.1%

net PP&E ÷ revenue

Sales efficiency

$0.19

new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 77.0% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 28.3% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 21.8% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

20 of 26 checks pass · 77%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

6/6

  • Revenue growth

    15.2% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • EPS growth

    — · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    na

  • FCF growth

    26.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Revenue rises consistently

    8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    pass

  • FCF consistently positive

    9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass

  • Profitable every year

    9 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    pass

  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    24.6% vs 15.2% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

6/7

  • Net margin

    14.4% · ≥ 8%

    pass

  • Operating margin

    18.0% · ≥ 10%

    pass

  • Gross margin stable or rising

    69.0% vs 68.8% · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    pass

  • Return on equity

    11.9% · ≥ 12%

    fail

  • Cash ROIC

    12.8% · ≥ 12%

    pass

  • FCF margin

    18.2% · ≥ 5%

    pass

  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $4.5B vs NI $2.9B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

3/5

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    3.0y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    fail

  • Cash cushion

    18% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    fail

  • Leverage

    0.46 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass

  • Equity positive and compounding

    $24.2B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass

  • Interest burden

    10% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    pass

Capital Allocation

3/4

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    0.0% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    pass

  • Stock comp restrained

    8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass

  • Distributions funded by FCF

    0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass

  • Repurchases are a habit

    1 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    fail

Valuation Discipline

2/4

  • FCF yield

    5.0% · ≥ 3%

    pass

  • Earnings multiple

    25.2 · P/E ≤ 25

    fail

  • Price asks less than history delivered

    7.7% vs 23.5% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass

  • Shareholder yield

    0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    fail

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202520,07413,8543,6132,8921.944,5348763,658——2991,96511,13724,2331,495
202416,74711,4902,6031,8461.253,4357902,6450—2664148,96821,7701,486
202314,2409,8962,3431,5921.072,5037111,79228—2338658,57119,2821,464
202212,6828,7271,6496980.451,5265889385502209288,91517,5731,440
202111,8888,1771,1991,0410.691,8705541,3165501941,9258,80416,6221,434
20209,9136,448-80-82-0.081,5083761,132285351701,7349,13015,3261,417
201910,7357,6201,5184,7003.331,8364611,375001572178,59213,8771,411
20189,8237,0111,5061,6711.19310316-6001401464,8038,7261,401
20179,0486,4551,2851040.081,4263191,107——1271883,8157,0121,393
20168,3865,9624473470.251,182376806—01161965,4206,7331,377
20158,0685,304-283-239-0.18691247444—01073195,6506,3201,341
20147,4625,170-301-119-0.091,2692591,010—1251035874,2006,4571,324
20137,0724,969120-121-0.091,110245865—5001052174,2006,5391,341
20126,9584,900-3,868-4,068-2.891,2802261,054—6001082074,2006,8701,407
20117,6224,9639044410.291,008304704—4921282674,20011,3531,519
20107,8065,207-656-1,065-0.7032527253——1502135,45011,2961,518
20098,1885,612-894-1,025-0.68835312523——1448645,91512,3011,508
20088,0505,581-1,505-2,036-1.361,216362854——1381,6416,74313,1741,499
20078,3576,015-14-495-0.33934363571——1221,452——1,487

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.

Compare with peers →·10-K filings on EDGAR ↗