BNY
BNY Mellon · Financials · Asset Management & Custody Banks
$142.85
52w 103.11 – 165.84
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$96.9B
P/E
17.6
P/FCF
18.8
FCF yield
5.3%
ROE
12.5%
Shldr yield
5.1%
div 1.5% + bb 3.6%
What today's price assumes
At $96.9B, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 3.9% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $116 · $116 · $144 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.3× across 16 years, BNY would trade near $73/share (25th–75th percentile: $67–$130); it trades at 14.4× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+6.7%
Rev 5y
+4.9%
Rev 10y
+2.9%
EPS 5y
+14.1%
EPS 10y
+10.6%
FCF 5y
+6.3%
FCF 10y
+3.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | — | — | $1.8B | +23.8% | 2.45 | $2.5B |
| Q1'26 | — | — | $1.6B | +33.8% | 2.24 | −$3.0B |
| Q4'25 * | — | — | $1.5B | +26.5% | 2.01 | $5.2B |
| Q3'25 | — | — | $1.4B | +22.3% | 1.88 | −$1.1B |
| Q2'25 | — | — | $1.4B | +21.8% | 1.93 | $2.2B |
| Q1'25 | — | — | $1.2B | +19.0% | 1.58 | $412.0M |
| Q4'24 | — | — | $1.2B | +455.3% | 1.54 | $1.6B |
| Q3'24 | — | — | $1.2B | +13.7% | 1.50 | −$312.0M |
| Q2'24 | — | — | $1.2B | +9.0% | 1.52 | $2.1B |
| Q1'24 | — | — | $1.0B | +4.4% | 1.25 | −$2.7B |
| Q4'23 | — | — | $208.0M | −61.7% | 0.21 | −$2.1B |
| Q3'23 | — | — | $1.0B | +168.0% | 1.23 | $5.0B |
| Q2'23 | — | — | $1.1B | +23.4% | 1.31 | $1.1B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +6.7% | +4.9% | +2.9% | +2.5% |
| Operating cash flow | −23.6% | +6.0% | +5.0% | +3.4% |
| Free cash flow | −27.7% | +6.3% | +3.9% | +2.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +37.0% | +14.1% | +10.6% | +8.9% |
| Equity | +2.8% | −0.7% | +1.5% | +2.1% |
| LT debt | +1.5% | +4.2% | +4.0% | +4.5% |
| Diluted shares | −4.2% | −4.3% | −4.3% | −3.5% |
| Stock price | +53.0% | +22.4% | +15.5% | +16.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$358vs $192 in SPY
53.0% vs 24.4%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$275vs $181 in SPY
22.4% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$424vs $428 in SPY
15.5% vs 15.6%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$950vs $803 in SPY
16.2% vs 14.9%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$4.09
$54.6B created / $13.3B retained
Last 10 years
$2.12
$54.3B created / $25.6B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
8.8%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.45
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
6.2y
SBC / FCF
0.0%
Owner earnings
$5.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.3%
Share count 5y
−2.7%
per year; negative = buybacks
Growth engine (5y): reinvested 17.7% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 30.5% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 5.4% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).
Checklist
18 of 24 checks pass · 75%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/7
- fail
Revenue growth
4.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
14.1% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
FCF growth
6.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
6.0% vs 4.9% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
4/5
- pass
Net margin
27.6% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
12.5% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
8.8% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
25.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $6.7B vs NI $5.5B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
1/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
6.2y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
16% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.72 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$44.3B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.7% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
0% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
96% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.3% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
17.6 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
6.9% vs 3.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
5.1% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy debt load
Long-term debt exceeds 5 years of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20,080 | — | — | 5,549 | 7.40 | 6,730 | 1,553 | 5,177 | 1,447 | 3,535 | 1 | 5,111 | 31,873 | 44,313 | 717 |
| 2024 | 18,619 | — | — | 4,530 | 5.80 | 687 | 1,469 | -782 | 1,348 | 3,064 | 0 | 4,178 | 30,854 | 41,318 | 748 |
| 2023 | 17,697 | — | — | 3,302 | 3.89 | 5,912 | 1,220 | 4,692 | 1,262 | 2,604 | 0 | 4,922 | 31,257 | 40,770 | 788 |
| 2022 | 16,529 | — | — | 2,556 | 2.88 | 15,068 | 1,346 | 13,722 | 1,165 | 124 | — | 5,030 | 30,458 | 40,734 | 815 |
| 2021 | 15,931 | — | — | 3,759 | 4.14 | 2,838 | 1,215 | 1,623 | 1,126 | 4,567 | — | 6,061 | 25,931 | 43,034 | 856 |
| 2020 | 15,808 | — | — | 3,617 | 3.83 | 5,038 | 1,222 | 3,816 | 1,117 | 989 | — | 6,252 | 25,984 | 45,801 | 893 |
| 2019 | 16,462 | — | — | 4,441 | 4.51 | 96 | 1,210 | -1,114 | 1,120 | 3,327 | — | 4,830 | 27,501 | 41,483 | 943 |
| 2018 | 16,392 | — | — | 4,266 | 4.04 | 5,996 | 1,108 | 4,888 | 1,052 | 3,269 | — | 5,864 | 29,163 | 40,638 | 1,007 |
| 2017 | 15,543 | — | — | 4,090 | 3.72 | 4,667 | 1,197 | 3,470 | 901 | 2,686 | — | 5,382 | 27,979 | 41,251 | 1,040 |
| 2015 | 15,126 | — | — | 3,158 | 2.71 | 4,127 | 601 | 3,526 | 760 | 2,355 | — | 6,537 | 21,547 | 38,037 | 1,113 |
| 2014 | 15,608 | — | — | 2,567 | 2.15 | 4,484 | 791 | 3,693 | 760 | 1,669 | — | 6,970 | 20,264 | 37,441 | 1,137 |
| 2013 | 14,968 | — | — | 2,104 | 1.73 | -642 | 609 | -1,251 | 680 | 1,026 | — | 6,460 | 19,864 | 37,497 | 1,154 |
| 2012 | 14,534 | — | — | 2,437 | 2.03 | 1,629 | 652 | 977 | 623 | 1,148 | — | 4,727 | 18,530 | 36,431 | 1,178 |
| 2011 | 14,680 | — | — | 2,516 | 2.03 | 2,211 | 642 | 1,569 | 593 | 873 | — | 4,175 | 19,933 | 33,417 | 1,223 |
| 2010 | 13,816 | — | — | 2,518 | 2.05 | 4,050 | 230 | 3,820 | 440 | 41 | — | 3,675 | 16,517 | 32,354 | 1,216 |
| 2009 | 7,654 | — | — | -814 | -1.16 | 3,781 | 318 | 3,463 | 599 | 28 | — | 3,732 | 17,234 | 28,977 | 1,179 |
| 2008 | 13,573 | — | — | 1,431 | 1.20 | 2,914 | 303 | 2,611 | 1,107 | 308 | — | 4,889 | 15,865 | 25,264 | 1,148 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.