BMY
Bristol Myers Squibb · Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
$67.28
52w 42.52 – 68.64
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$137.4B
P/E
19.4
P/FCF
10.7
FCF yield
9.4%
ROE
38.2%
Shldr yield
3.7%
div 3.7% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $137.4B, the market is pricing in -1.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 25.9% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $96 · $215 · $310 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 7.9× across 17 years, BMY would trade near $55/share (25th–75th percentile: $49–$99); it trades at 9.7× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+1.4%
Rev 5y
+2.5%
Rev 10y
+11.3%
EPS 5y
—
EPS 10y
+14.0%
FCF 5y
−0.7%
FCF 10y
+25.9%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2007–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $13.0B | +5.7% | $3.3B | +153.2% | 1.62 | $3.4B |
| Q1'26 | $11.5B | +2.6% | $2.7B | +9.0% | 1.31 | $1.1B |
| Q4'25 * | $12.5B | +1.3% | $1.1B | +1409.7% | 0.54 | $2.0B |
| Q3'25 | $12.2B | +2.8% | $2.2B | +81.8% | 1.08 | $6.3B |
| Q2'25 | $12.3B | +0.6% | $1.3B | −22.0% | 0.64 | $3.9B |
| Q1'25 | $11.2B | −5.6% | $2.5B | — | 1.20 | $2.0B |
| Q4'24 * | $12.3B | +7.5% | $72.0M | −95.9% | 0.05 | $4.4B |
| Q3'24 | $11.9B | +8.4% | $1.2B | −37.2% | 0.60 | $5.6B |
| Q2'24 | $12.2B | +8.7% | $1.7B | −19.0% | 0.83 | $2.3B |
| Q1'24 | $11.9B | +4.7% | −$11.9B | −626.6% | -5.89 | $2.8B |
| Q4'23 * | $11.5B | +0.6% | $1.8B | −12.9% | 0.87 | $4.3B |
| Q3'23 | $11.0B | −2.2% | $1.9B | +20.0% | 0.93 | $4.8B |
| Q2'23 | $11.2B | −5.6% | $2.1B | +45.9% | 0.99 | $1.9B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +1.4% | +2.5% | +11.3% | +6.2% |
| Operating cash flow | +2.7% | +0.1% | +21.0% | +8.0% |
| Free cash flow | +2.4% | −0.7% | +25.9% | +8.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +5.5% | +9.5% | +14.0% | +4.5% |
| Equity | −15.9% | −13.4% | +2.6% | +1.1% |
| LT debt | +6.9% | −2.4% | +20.7% | +14.9% |
| Diluted shares | −1.7% | −2.0% | +2.0% | +1.1% |
| Stock price | +7.9% | +4.3% | +5.2% | +9.2% |
$100, 3 years ago
$126vs $176 in SPY
7.9% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$123vs $181 in SPY
4.3% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$167vs $412 in SPY
5.2% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$375vs $813 in SPY
9.2% vs 15.0%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
23.1%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
8.4%
MC vs 10× OCF
0.97
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.3y
SBC / FCF
4.3%
Owner earnings
$12.3B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
9.0%
Share count 5y
+0.2%
per year; negative = buybacks
Checklist
15 of 23 checks pass · 65%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
2/6
- fail
Revenue growth
2.5% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
EPS growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-0.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
Revenue rises consistently
6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
10 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
8 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
0.1% vs 2.5% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/5
- pass
Net margin
14.6% · ≥ 8%
- na
Operating margin
— · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- pass
Return on equity
38.2% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
23.1% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
26.7% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $14.2B vs NI $7.1B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
0/4
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.3y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- fail
Cash cushion
24% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- fail
Leverage
2.32 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
$18.5B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- na
Interest burden
— · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
0.2% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
4% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
39% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
8 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
4/4
- pass
FCF yield
9.4% · ≥ 3%
- pass
Earnings multiple
19.4 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
-1.0% vs 25.9% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
3.7% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 48,194 | — | — | 7,054 | 3.46 | 14,156 | 1,311 | 12,845 | 5,045 | 0 | 553 | 10,209 | 42,850 | 18,473 | 2,039 |
| 2024 | 48,300 | — | — | -8,948 | -4.41 | 15,190 | 1,248 | 13,942 | 4,863 | 0 | 507 | 10,346 | 47,603 | 16,335 | 2,027 |
| 2023 | 45,006 | — | — | 8,025 | 3.86 | 13,860 | 1,209 | 12,651 | 4,744 | 5,155 | 518 | 11,464 | 36,653 | 29,430 | 2,078 |
| 2022 | 46,159 | — | — | 6,327 | 2.95 | 13,066 | 1,118 | 11,948 | 4,634 | 8,001 | 457 | 9,123 | 35,056 | 31,061 | 2,146 |
| 2021 | 46,385 | — | — | 6,994 | 3.12 | 16,207 | 973 | 15,234 | 4,396 | 6,287 | 583 | 13,979 | 39,605 | 35,946 | 2,245 |
| 2020 | 42,518 | 30,745 | — | -9,015 | -3.99 | 14,052 | 753 | 13,299 | 4,075 | 1,546 | 779 | 14,546 | 48,336 | 37,822 | 2,258 |
| 2019 | 26,145 | 18,067 | — | 3,439 | 2.01 | 8,210 | 836 | 7,374 | 2,679 | 7,300 | 441 | 12,346 | 43,387 | 51,598 | 1,712 |
| 2018 | 22,561 | 16,094 | — | 4,920 | 3.01 | 7,066 | 951 | 6,115 | 2,613 | 320 | 221 | 6,911 | 5,646 | 14,031 | 1,637 |
| 2017 | 20,776 | 14,682 | — | 1,007 | 0.61 | 5,275 | 1,055 | 4,220 | 2,577 | 2,469 | 199 | 5,421 | 6,975 | 11,741 | 1,652 |
| 2016 | 19,427 | 14,481 | — | 4,457 | 2.65 | 3,058 | 1,215 | 1,843 | 2,547 | 231 | 205 | 4,237 | 5,716 | 16,177 | 1,680 |
| 2015 | 16,560 | 12,651 | — | 1,565 | 0.93 | 2,105 | 820 | 1,285 | 2,477 | — | 235 | 2,385 | 6,550 | 14,266 | 1,679 |
| 2014 | 15,879 | 11,947 | — | 2,004 | 1.20 | 3,148 | 526 | 2,622 | 2,398 | — | 213 | 5,571 | 7,242 | 14,852 | 1,670 |
| 2013 | 16,385 | 11,766 | — | 2,563 | 1.54 | 3,545 | 537 | 3,008 | 2,309 | 433 | 191 | 3,586 | 7,981 | 15,154 | 1,662 |
| 2012 | 17,621 | 13,011 | — | 1,960 | 1.16 | 6,941 | 548 | 6,393 | 2,286 | 2,403 | 154 | 1,656 | 6,568 | 13,623 | 1,688 |
| 2011 | 21,244 | 15,646 | — | 3,709 | 2.16 | 4,840 | 367 | 4,473 | 2,254 | 1,221 | 161 | 5,776 | 5,376 | 15,956 | 1,717 |
| 2010 | 19,484 | 14,207 | — | 3,102 | 1.79 | 4,491 | 424 | 4,067 | 2,202 | 576 | 193 | 5,033 | 5,328 | 15,713 | 1,727 |
| 2009 | 18,808 | 13,668 | — | 10,612 | 5.34 | 4,065 | 730 | 3,335 | 2,483 | — | 183 | 7,683 | 6,130 | 14,843 | 1,978 |
| 2008 | 17,715 | — | — | 5,247 | 2.62 | 3,707 | 941 | 2,766 | 2,461 | — | 181 | 7,976 | 6,585 | 12,241 | — |
| 2007 | 15,617 | — | — | 2,165 | 1.09 | 3,153 | 843 | 2,310 | 2,213 | — | 133 | 1,801 | — | — | — |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.