BLK
BlackRock · Financials · Asset Management & Custody Banks
$1,172.61
52w 917.39 – 1,219.94
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$181.7B
P/E
32.7
P/FCF
51.1
FCF yield
2.0%
ROE
9.9%
Shldr yield
0.0%
div 0.0% + bb 0.0%
What today's price assumes
At $181.7B, the market is pricing in 20.5% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew -7.0% per year — the price asks for acceleration beyond the historical record.
Simple DCF per-share range: $160 · $160 · $197 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+10.7%
Rev 5y
+10.7%
Rev 10y
+10.7%
EPS 5y
+1.3%
EPS 10y
+1.3%
FCF 5y
−7.0%
FCF 10y
−7.0%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2022–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $7.1B | +30.6% | $1.9B | +20.2% | 12.19 | $1.2B |
| Q1'26 | $6.7B | +27.0% | $2.2B | +46.5% | 14.06 | −$980.0M |
| Q4'25 * | $7.0B | +23.4% | $1.1B | −32.5% | 7.05 | $2.3B |
| Q3'25 | $6.5B | +25.2% | $1.3B | −18.9% | 8.43 | $1.4B |
| Q2'25 | $5.4B | +12.9% | $1.6B | +6.6% | 10.19 | $1.4B |
| Q1'25 | $5.3B | +11.6% | $1.5B | −4.0% | 9.64 | −$1.1B |
| Q4'24 * | $5.7B | +25.5% | $1.7B | +4.1% | 10.64 | $2.6B |
| Q3'24 | $5.2B | — | $1.6B | — | 10.90 | $1.4B |
| Q2'24 | $4.8B | — | $1.5B | — | 9.99 | $1.4B |
| Q1'24 | $4.7B | — | $1.6B | — | 10.48 | −$408.0M |
| Q3'23 | $4.5B | — | $1.6B | — | 10.66 | — |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.7% | — | — | — |
| Operating cash flow | −7.5% | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | −7.0% | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | +1.3% | — | — | — |
| Equity | +13.8% | — | — | — |
| LT debt | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | +1.8% | — | — | — |
| Stock price | +21.5% | +7.0% | +14.9% | +16.9% |
$100, 3 years ago
$179vs $176 in SPY
21.5% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$140vs $181 in SPY
7.0% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$400vs $412 in SPY
14.9% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,036vs $813 in SPY
16.9% vs 15.0%/yr
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
5.7%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
2.1%
MC vs 10× OCF
4.63
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
3.6y
SBC / FCF
36.8%
Owner earnings
$2.2B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
1.2%
Share count 5y
+1.8%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
5.2%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.02
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
9 of 22 checks pass · 41%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
1/4
- pass
Revenue growth
10.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
EPS growth
1.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- fail
FCF growth
-7.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
Revenue rises consistently
— · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- na
FCF consistently positive
— · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- na
Profitable every year
— · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- fail
Cash flow keeps up with sales
-7.5% vs 10.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
3/6
- pass
Net margin
22.9% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
29.1% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
9.9% · ≥ 12%
- fail
Cash ROIC
5.7% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
14.7% · ≥ 5%
- fail
Earnings back their cash
OCF $3.9B vs NI $5.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
4/5
- fail
Debt payable from cash flow
3.6y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
90% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
0.23 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- pass
Equity positive and compounding
$55.9B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- pass
Interest burden
9% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
1/3
- fail
Share count flat or shrinking
1.8% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- fail
Stock comp restrained
37% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
0% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- na
Repurchases are a habit
— · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
0/4
- fail
FCF yield
2.0% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
32.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- fail
Price asks less than history delivered
20.5% vs -7.0% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- fail
Shareholder yield
0.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Red flags
Mechanical checks — a flag is a question to investigate, not a verdict
Heavy stock compensation
Stock-based compensation consumes more than 30% of free cash flow.
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24,216 | — | 7,045 | 5,553 | 35.31 | 3,927 | 375 | 3,552 | — | — | 1,307 | 11,468 | 12,768 | 55,888 | 161 |
| 2024 | 20,407 | — | 7,574 | 6,369 | 42.01 | 4,956 | 255 | 4,701 | 3,101 | 1,930 | 753 | 12,762 | 12,314 | 47,495 | 152 |
| 2023 | 17,859 | — | 6,275 | 5,502 | 36.51 | 4,165 | 344 | 3,821 | 3,035 | 1,884 | 630 | 8,736 | 7,918 | 39,347 | 151 |
| 2022 | 17,873 | — | 6,385 | 5,178 | 33.97 | 4,956 | 533 | 4,423 | 2,990 | 2,332 | 708 | 7,433 | — | 37,876 | 152 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.