MMarketMath

BKR

StalwartQuality: Medium (66/100)

Baker Hughes · Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

$61.99

52w 43.92 – 70.41

20y monthly, adjusted

Mkt cap

$61.5B

P/E

24.7

P/FCF

25.2

FCF yield

4.0%

ROE

13.7%

Shldr yield

2.0%

div 1.4% + bb 0.6%

What today's price assumes

At $61.5B, the market is pricing in 10.9% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 14.2% per year — expectations are roughly in line with history.

Simple DCF per-share range: $39 · $83 · $103 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.

Adjust the assumptions yourself →

Growth record

Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted

Rev 3y

+9.4%

Rev 5y

+6.0%

Rev 10y

+5.2%

EPS 5y

+66.9%

EPS 10y

FCF 5y

+50.4%

FCF 10y

+14.2%

Fundamentals

Fiscal 2015–2025, from SEC filings

Revenue

2015: $16.7B
2016: $13.1B
2017: $17.2B
2018: $22.9B
2019: $23.8B
2020: $20.7B
2021: $20.5B
2022: $21.2B
2023: $25.5B
2024: $27.8B
2025: $27.7B
$0$10.0B$20.0B
15
17
19
21
23
25

Net income

2015: $0
2016: $0
2017: −$103.0M
2018: $195.0M
2019: $128.0M
2020: −$9.9B
2021: −$219.0M
2022: −$601.0M
2023: $1.9B
2024: $3.0B
2025: $2.6B
−$5.0B$0
15
17
19
21
23
25

Free cash flow

2015: $670.0M
2016: −$162.0M
2017: −$1.5B
2018: $767.0M
2019: $886.0M
2020: $330.0M
2021: $1.5B
2022: $899.0M
2023: $1.8B
2024: $2.1B
2025: $2.5B
$0$2.0B
15
17
19
21
23
25
No data

Margins

-40%-20%0%151719212325
Net marginFCF margin

Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)

2015: $0
2016: $0
2017: $329.0M
2018: $702.0M
2019: $395.0M
2020: $488.0M
2021: $1.0B
2022: $1.6B
2023: $1.3B
2024: $1.3B
2025: $1.3B
$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B
15
17
19
21
23
25

Cash vs long-term debt

$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B151719212325
CashLT debt

Quarterly

Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.

Revenue by quarter

Q2'23: $6.3B
Q3'23: $6.6B
Q4'23: $6.8B
Q1'24: $6.4B
Q2'24: $7.1B
Q3'24: $6.9B
Q4'24: $7.4B
Q1'25: $6.4B
Q2'25: $6.9B
Q3'25: $7.0B
Q4'25: $7.4B
Q1'26: $6.6B
Q2'26: $6.7B
$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B
23
24
24
25
26

Net income by quarter

Q2'23: $410.0M
Q3'23: $518.0M
Q4'23: $439.0M
Q1'24: $455.0M
Q2'24: $579.0M
Q3'24: $766.0M
Q4'24: $1.2B
Q1'25: $402.0M
Q2'25: $701.0M
Q3'25: $609.0M
Q4'25: $876.0M
Q1'26: $930.0M
Q2'26: $681.0M
$0$500.0M$1.0B
23
24
24
25
26
QuarterRevenueYoYNet incomeYoYEPSOCF
Q2'26$6.7B−2.4%$681.0M−2.9%$1.3B
Q1'26$6.6B+2.5%$930.0M+131.3%$500.0M
Q4'25 *$7.4B+0.3%$876.0M−25.7%$1.7B
Q3'25$7.0B+1.5%$609.0M−20.5%$929.0M
Q2'25$6.9B−3.2%$701.0M+21.1%$510.0M
Q1'25$6.4B+0.1%$402.0M−11.6%$709.0M
Q4'24 *$7.4B+7.8%$1.2B+168.6%$1.2B
Q3'24$6.9B+4.0%$766.0M+47.9%$1.0B
Q2'24$7.1B+13.0%$579.0M+41.2%$348.0M
Q1'24$6.4B+12.3%$455.0M−21.0%$784.0M
Q4'23 *$6.8B+15.7%$439.0M+139.9%$932.0M
Q3'23$6.6B+23.7%$518.0M$810.0M
Q2'23$6.3B+25.1%$410.0M$859.0M

Track record

Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.

Series3y5y10y15y
Revenue+9.4%+6.0%+5.2%
Operating cash flow+26.4%+23.9%+11.6%
Free cash flow+41.3%+50.4%+14.2%
EPS (diluted)+66.9%+66.9%
Equity+9.4%+7.9%+2.6%
LT debt−3.4%−4.4%
Diluted shares
Stock price+22.0%+24.9%+8.8%+4.7%

$100, 3 years ago

$182vs $176 in SPY

22.0% vs 20.7%/yr

$100, 5 years ago

$304vs $181 in SPY

24.9% vs 12.6%/yr

$100, 10 years ago

$233vs $412 in SPY

8.8% vs 15.2%/yr

$100, 15 years ago

$199vs $813 in SPY

4.7% vs 15.0%/yr

Quality & capital discipline

Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital

Cash ROIC

15.7%

OCF ÷ (equity + debt)

OCF / EV yield

5.8%

MC vs 10× OCF

1.68

≤1 = priced under 10× OCF

Debt / FCF

2.1y

SBC / FCF

8.0%

Owner earnings

$2.3B

OCF − capex − SBC

OE yield

3.6%

Share count 5y

per year; negative = buybacks

Growth engine (5y): reinvested 34.6% of operating cash flow at an incremental return of 50.0% — an organically fundable growth rate of about 17.3% per year (growth ≈ reinvestment rate × incremental ROIC).

Checklist

21 of 23 checks pass · 91%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.

Growth & Consistency

5/7

  • Revenue growth

    6.0% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • EPS growth

    66.9% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • FCF growth

    50.4% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Revenue rises consistently

    6 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years

    fail
  • FCF consistently positive

    8 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years

    pass
  • Profitable every year

    5 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10

    fail
  • Cash flow keeps up with sales

    23.9% vs 6.0% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR

    pass

Profitability

5/5

  • Net margin

    9.3% · ≥ 8%

    pass
  • Operating margin

    · ≥ 10%

    na
  • Gross margin stable or rising

    · no drop > 2 pts over 3y

    na
  • Return on equity

    13.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • Cash ROIC

    15.7% · ≥ 12%

    pass
  • FCF margin

    9.1% · ≥ 5%

    pass
  • Earnings back their cash

    OCF $3.8B vs NI $2.6B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)

    pass

Balance Sheet

4/4

  • Debt payable from cash flow

    2.1y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF

    pass
  • Cash cushion

    69% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt

    pass
  • Leverage

    0.29 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity

    pass
  • Equity positive and compounding

    $18.8B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y

    pass
  • Interest burden

    · interest ≤ 15% of operating income

    na

Capital Allocation

3/3

  • Share count flat or shrinking

    · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y

    na
  • Stock comp restrained

    8% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF

    pass
  • Distributions funded by FCF

    51% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF

    pass
  • Repurchases are a habit

    7 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years

    pass

Valuation Discipline

4/4

  • FCF yield

    4.0% · ≥ 3%

    pass
  • Earnings multiple

    24.7 · P/E ≤ 25

    pass
  • Price asks less than history delivered

    10.9% vs 14.2% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR

    pass
  • Shareholder yield

    2.0% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap

    pass

Financial data

As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.

FYRevenueGross profitOp incomeNet incomeEPSOCFCapExFCFDividendsBuybacksSBCCashLT debtEquityShares
202527,7332,5883,8101,2732,5379103842033,7155,39818,834
202427,8293,0812,9792.983,3321,2782,0548364842023,3645,97016,895
202325,5062,3171,9431.913,0621,2241,8387865381972,6465,87215,368
202221,1561,185-601-0.611,8889898997268282072,4885,98014,394
202120,5021,310-219-0.272,3748561,5185924342053,8536,68714,830
202020,705-15,978-9,940-14.731,30497433048802104,1326,74412,893
201923,8384,4321,0741280.232,1261,24088639503,2496,30121,929
201822,8773,9867011950.451,7629957673153873,7236,28517,465
201717,1793,036-284-103-0.24-799665-1,4641551747,0236,31214,277
201613,0823,1464570262424-162009813814,688
201516,688-13801,277607670001,43214,545

Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.