BKNG
Booking Holdings · Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
$213.36
52w 150.14 – 230.98
20y monthly, adjusted
Mkt cap
$160.3B
P/E
29.7
P/FCF
17.6
FCF yield
5.7%
ROE
-96.9%
Shldr yield
4.8%
div 0.8% + bb 4.0%
What today's price assumes
At $160.3B, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next decade (10% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth). Over the last ten years, FCF actually grew 11.6% per year — expectations look undemanding relative to history.
Simple DCF per-share range: $184 · $322 · $402 (4% / base / optimistic growth). An estimate, not a target.
Historical multiple lens
At its own median P/OCF of 0.8× across 18 years, BKNG would trade near $9/share (25th–75th percentile: $8–$10); it trades at 17.0× today.
Assumes the historical multiple regime persists — re-ratings can be permanent.
Growth record
Compound annual growth rates from as-filed 10-K data, split-adjusted
Rev 3y
+16.3%
Rev 5y
+31.7%
Rev 10y
+11.3%
EPS 5y
+158.3%
EPS 10y
+12.8%
FCF 5y
—
FCF 10y
+11.6%
Fundamentals
Fiscal 2008–2025, from SEC filings
Revenue
Net income
Free cash flow
Diluted shares (lower is better)
Margins
Capital returned (dividends + buybacks)
Cash vs long-term debt
Quarterly
Discrete quarters from 10-Q filings; Q4 derived as fiscal year minus Q1–Q3. OCF is unwound from the year-to-date figures 10-Qs report. Compare to the same quarter a year ago — most businesses are seasonal.
Revenue by quarter
Net income by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income | YoY | EPS | OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $7.4B | +8.1% | $1.9B | +117.9% | 2.53 | $3.7B |
| Q1'26 | $5.5B | +16.2% | $1.1B | +225.2% | 1.36 | $3.2B |
| Q4'25 * | $6.3B | +16.0% | $1.4B | +33.7% | 79.66 | $1.5B |
| Q3'25 | $9.0B | +12.7% | $2.7B | +9.2% | 84.41 | $1.4B |
| Q2'25 | $6.8B | +16.0% | $895.0M | −41.2% | 1.10 | $3.2B |
| Q1'25 | $4.8B | +7.9% | $333.0M | −57.1% | 0.40 | $3.3B |
| Q4'24 * | $5.5B | +14.4% | $1.1B | +381.1% | 31.60 | $721.0M |
| Q3'24 | $8.0B | +8.9% | $2.5B | +0.2% | 74.34 | $2.4B |
| Q2'24 | $5.9B | +7.3% | $1.5B | +17.9% | 44.38 | $2.5B |
| Q1'24 | $4.4B | +16.9% | $776.0M | +191.7% | 22.37 | $2.7B |
| Q4'23 * | $4.8B | +18.2% | $222.0M | −82.0% | 5.71 | $1.3B |
| Q3'23 | $7.3B | +21.3% | $2.5B | +50.7% | 69.80 | $1.4B |
| Q2'23 | $5.5B | +27.2% | $1.3B | +50.5% | 34.89 | $1.7B |
Track record
Compound annual growth by period. For debt and share count, negative is the good direction.
| Series | 3y | 5y | 10y | 15y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +16.3% | +31.7% | +11.3% | +15.5% |
| Operating cash flow | +12.8% | +156.3% | +11.4% | +18.1% |
| Free cash flow | +13.7% | +12.4% | +11.6% | +18.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | +29.4% | +158.3% | +12.8% | +20.3% |
| Equity | −22.3% | −24.4% | −3.3% | — |
| LT debt | +12.0% | +8.9% | +10.6% | — |
| Diluted shares | −6.6% | −4.5% | −4.5% | −2.9% |
| Stock price | +20.6% | +18.8% | +14.4% | +16.7% |
$100, 3 years ago
$175vs $176 in SPY
20.6% vs 20.7%/yr
$100, 5 years ago
$237vs $181 in SPY
18.8% vs 12.6%/yr
$100, 10 years ago
$384vs $412 in SPY
14.4% vs 15.2%/yr
$100, 15 years ago
$1,014vs $813 in SPY
16.7% vs 15.0%/yr
The $1 test — market value created per $1 of earnings retained (Buffett's hurdle: at least $1)
Last 5 years
$0.19
$3.4B created / $17.4B retained
Last 10 years
$0.14
$4.3B created / $30.8B retained
Quality & capital discipline
Cash-based returns and how management deploys capital
Cash ROIC
83.4%
OCF ÷ (equity + debt)
OCF / EV yield
5.9%
MC vs 10× OCF
1.70
≤1 = priced under 10× OCF
Debt / FCF
1.9y
SBC / FCF
6.7%
Owner earnings
$8.5B
OCF − capex − SBC
OE yield
5.3%
Share count 5y
−2.3%
per year; negative = buybacks
Capital intensity
3.0%
net PP&E ÷ revenue
Sales efficiency
$0.00
new PP&E per $1 new revenue, 5y
Checklist
21 of 25 checks pass · 84%. Checks with structurally missing inputs are excluded.
Growth & Consistency
6/6
- pass
Revenue growth
31.7% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
EPS growth
158.3% · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- na
FCF growth
— · 5y CAGR ≥ 5%
- pass
Revenue rises consistently
8 of 9 · up in ≥ 7 of last 10 years
- pass
FCF consistently positive
9 of 10 · positive in ≥ 8 of last 10 years
- pass
Profitable every year
10 of 10 · net income > 0 in ≥ 8 of last 10
- pass
Cash flow keeps up with sales
156.3% vs 31.7% · OCF CAGR ≥ 0.9× revenue CAGR
Profitability
5/6
- pass
Net margin
20.1% · ≥ 8%
- pass
Operating margin
32.8% · ≥ 10%
- na
Gross margin stable or rising
— · no drop > 2 pts over 3y
- fail
Return on equity
-96.9% · ≥ 12%
- pass
Cash ROIC
83.4% · ≥ 12%
- pass
FCF margin
33.8% · ≥ 5%
- pass
Earnings back their cash
OCF $9.4B vs NI $5.4B · OCF ≥ net income (latest FY)
Balance Sheet
3/5
- pass
Debt payable from cash flow
1.9y · LT debt ≤ 3× FCF
- pass
Cash cushion
102% · cash ≥ 50% of LT debt
- pass
Leverage
-3.02 · LT debt ≤ 1.5× equity
- fail
Equity positive and compounding
−$5.6B · equity > 0 and grew over ~5y
- fail
Interest burden
18% · interest ≤ 15% of operating income
Capital Allocation
4/4
- pass
Share count flat or shrinking
-2.3% · ≤ +0.5%/yr over ~5y
- pass
Stock comp restrained
7% · SBC ≤ 15% of FCF
- pass
Distributions funded by FCF
85% · dividends + buybacks ≤ 100% of FCF
- pass
Repurchases are a habit
10 of 10 · buybacks in ≥ 5 of last 10 years
Valuation Discipline
3/4
- pass
FCF yield
5.7% · ≥ 3%
- fail
Earnings multiple
29.7 · P/E ≤ 25
- pass
Price asks less than history delivered
6.0% vs 11.6% · implied FCF growth ≤ historical FCF CAGR
- pass
Shareholder yield
4.8% · dividends + buybacks ≥ 2% of market cap
Financial data
As filed in 10-Ks; per-share figures split-adjusted. $ in millions.
| FY | Revenue | Gross profit | Op income | Net income | EPS | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Dividends | Buybacks | SBC | Cash | LT debt | Equity | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26,917 | — | 8,825 | 5,404 | 165.57 | 9,409 | 322 | 9,087 | 1,248 | 6,440 | 613 | 17,203 | 16,856 | -5,578 | 33 |
| 2024 | 23,739 | — | 7,555 | 5,882 | 172.69 | 8,323 | 429 | 7,894 | 1,174 | 6,509 | 599 | 16,164 | 14,853 | -4,020 | 34 |
| 2023 | 21,365 | — | 5,835 | 4,289 | 117.40 | 7,344 | 345 | 6,999 | 0 | 10,377 | 530 | 12,107 | 12,223 | -2,744 | 37 |
| 2022 | 17,090 | — | 5,102 | 3,058 | 76.35 | 6,554 | 368 | 6,186 | 0 | 6,621 | 404 | 12,221 | 11,985 | 2,782 | 40 |
| 2021 | 10,958 | — | 2,496 | 1,165 | 28.17 | 2,820 | 304 | 2,516 | — | 163 | 370 | 11,127 | 8,937 | 6,178 | 41 |
| 2020 | 6,796 | — | -631 | 59 | 1.44 | 85 | 286 | -201 | — | 1,303 | 233 | 10,562 | 11,029 | 4,893 | 41 |
| 2019 | 15,066 | — | 5,345 | 4,865 | 111.82 | 4,865 | 368 | 4,497 | — | 8,187 | 308 | 6,312 | 7,640 | 5,933 | 44 |
| 2018 | 14,527 | — | 5,341 | 3,998 | 83.26 | 5,338 | 442 | 4,896 | — | 5,971 | 317 | 2,624 | 8,649 | 8,785 | 48 |
| 2017 | 12,681 | 12,439 | 4,538 | 2,341 | 46.86 | 4,662 | 288 | 4,374 | — | 1,828 | 261 | 2,542 | 8,810 | 11,261 | 50 |
| 2016 | 10,743 | 10,328 | 2,906 | 2,135 | 42.65 | 3,984 | 220 | 3,764 | — | 1,012 | 250 | 2,081 | 6,171 | 9,820 | 50 |
| 2015 | 9,224 | 8,592 | 3,259 | 2,551 | 49.45 | 3,204 | 174 | 3,030 | — | 3,089 | 247 | 1,477 | 6,158 | 8,795 | 52 |
| 2014 | 8,442 | 7,584 | 3,073 | 2,422 | 45.67 | 2,914 | 132 | 2,783 | — | 750 | 186 | 3,149 | 3,824 | 8,567 | 53 |
| 2013 | 6,793 | 5,716 | 2,412 | 1,893 | 36.11 | 2,301 | 84 | 2,217 | — | 884 | 141 | 1,290 | 1,742 | 6,910 | 52 |
| 2012 | 5,261 | 4,084 | 1,830 | 1,424 | 27.66 | 1,786 | 55 | 1,731 | — | 257 | 72 | 1,536 | — | 3,897 | 51 |
| 2011 | 4,356 | 3,080 | 1,399 | 1,059 | 20.63 | 1,342 | 47 | 1,295 | — | 163 | 66 | 633 | — | 2,574 | 51 |
| 2010 | 3,085 | 1,909 | 787 | 528 | 10.35 | 777 | 23 | 755 | — | 129 | 68 | 359 | — | 1,813 | 51 |
| 2009 | 2,338 | 1,261 | 471 | 489 | 9.88 | 510 | 15 | 495 | — | 17 | 41 | 202 | — | 1,322 | 50 |
| 2008 | 1,885 | 956 | 289 | 182 | 3.74 | 316 | 18 | 297 | — | 4 | 41 | 365 | — | 699 | 49 |
Some concepts are structurally absent for certain industries (banks report no gross profit or capex). Missing ≠ zero.